It might have seemed like an impossible scenario when the season began, but the Houston Texans have scratched and clawed their way back into the playoff picture. Thanks to a defense that has stifled opponents at an unprecedented rate, they are right there in the race for a playoff spot.
Now, at 8-5, they have emerged as a legitimate threat in the AFC and have a chance to win their division despite once trailing the Indianapolis Colts by a wide margin. Let’s break down the chances they have of making it to the playoffs for the third consecutive season, or even winning their division outright.
Can the Texans Continue Their Turnaround to the Playoffs?
Starting the season 0-3, including a loss against their division-rival Jacksonville Jaguars, it seemed like the lack of a competent offensive line was finally going to catch up to Houston.
As they tried to battle their way back to 3-5, any hopes seemed vanquished when C.J. Stroud went down with an injury that ultimately kept him out for three weeks. But thanks to the No. 1 defense in the league (according to PFSN’s Defense Impact metric) and the solid play of Davis Mills, the Texans were able to go on a four-game winning streak.
Now, with a massive Sunday Night Football victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Texans have won five straight and are in terrific position to make the playoffs.
PFSN’s Playoff Predictor now gives Houston an 86.1% chance of making the playoffs, with the division not out of sight at 36.3% odds (compared to 55.3% for the Jaguars and 8.3% for the Colts). Taking into account each team’s level of play and their remaining strength of schedule, the tool gauges how the rest of the season is likely to unfold. second place in the AFC South, but they have entered the playoff picture as the No. 7 seed in the AFC.
Despite the offense failing to set the world on fire, the team has a very good chance of securing a spot in the playoff bracket in the coming weeks.
The fact that the Colts lost Daniel Jones for the remainder of the season to a torn Achilles only helps the Texans’ odds, as Indianapolis will be starting rookie quarterback Riley Leonard down the stretch with Anthony Richardson also sidelined.
This season, Houston now has quality wins over the Chiefs, Jaguars, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Ravens. Over the final four weeks, the Texans will face the Arizona Cardinals, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, and the Colts without Jones.
The offensive deficiencies might limit the ceiling for the Texans, but as far as a playoff threat is concerned, Houston has proven over the last month that they are as capable as any other team in the AFC race.
