The Italian Open is upon us, and the draw has been made for the next ATP Masters 1000 tournament. Jannik Sinner has looked unbeatable so far on clay and will now be gunning for an unprecedented sixth-straight Masters title.
With no Carlos Alcaraz in the field, Sinner could face tough competition from Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and Félix Auger-Aliassime in Rome. Here’s the lowdown on the path the top four seeds could face en route to the Italian Open final.
Jannik Sinner’s Path to Italian Open Title
Sinner will receive plenty of support in Rome and will be determined to win the Italian Open for the first time after making the final last year. He will begin his journey against Alex Michelsen or Sebastian Ofner in the second round.
In the third round, Sinner could face Jakub Menšík, the last player to defeat him on the ATP Tour. Menšík pulled off that upset in Doha in February and will hope to do the same if they meet in Rome.
If Sinner manages to overcome Menšík, he would be in for a fourth-round clash against Frances Tiafoe or Arthur Fils. The Frenchman has enjoyed a dominant start to the clay-court swing, but Sinner managed to brush him aside in Madrid.
Ben Shelton or Andrey Rublev could be Sinner’s possible quarterfinal opponents in Rome. The American won the title in Munich but had a run to forget in Madrid, while Rublev also had an early exit in Madrid after making the final in Barcelona.
Sinner could encounter Daniil Medvedev, Auger-Aliassime, or João Fonseca in the semifinals. Medvedev has beaten Sinner seven of the 16 times they’ve played; however, the Italian has won their last four encounters. The world No. 1 also previously bested Fonseca at Indian Wells.
Alexander Zverev’s Path to the Title
Seeded second in Rome, Zverev is coming off a brutal loss to Sinner in the Madrid Open final. He is a two-time Italian Open champion and will face compatriot Daniel Altmaier or Zhang Zhizhen in the second round.
Tallon Griekspoor or Alexander Blockx could be Zverev’s third-round opponents. The German defeated Blockx in the Madrid Open semifinals and leads Griekspoor 9-2 in head-to-head meetings.
If Zverev makes it to the fourth round, he could face Tommy Paul or Luciano Darderi. Paul has a 2-1 head-to-head lead, and the world No. 3 would have to be wary of an upset here.
Rafael Jódar, Alex de Minaur, and Alexander Bublik could be Zverev’s possible quarterfinal opponents. Jódar is coming off a strong run in Madrid, while de Minaur and Bublik are both capable players.
Djokovic, Jiří Lehečka, Lorenzo Musetti, or Casper Ruud could await the German in the semifinals of the Italian Open. The Serb holds a 9-5 lead over Zverev in their head-to-head but will make his return in Rome after a long injury lay-off.
Musetti has won three of his five matches against Zverev. Ruud, meanwhile, has prevailed twice in six encounters, and Lehečka owns a victory in their two meetings.
Novak Djokovic’s Path to the Title
Djokovic will mark his return from injury with a second-round clash against Márton Fucsovics or a qualifier. The Serb could then face Ugo Humbert or Vít Kopřiva in the third round. Kopřiva is coming off a decent run in Madrid and will look to build on that in Rome.
In the fourth round, he might meet 13th seed Karen Khachanov or 22nd seed Arthur Rinderknech. Djokovic leads Khachanov 9-1 in their meetings.
Should he reach the quarterfinals, he will need to get past Lehečka, Musetti, or Ruud. Musetti nearly upset the Serb at the Australian Open, but after leading by two sets, he was forced to withdraw due to injury.
In the semifinals, Djokovic could face Zverev, de Minaur, or Jódar.
Félix Auger-Aliassime’s Path to the Title
Seeded fourth in Italy, Auger-Aliassime will have his sights set on winning his first-ever clay-court title on the ATP Tour. He will face compatriot Denis Shapovalov or Mariano Navone in the second round.
A third-round clash against Fonseca could then await the Canadian. Auger-Aliassime and Fonseca have never met before, so this could be an intriguing matchup.
The Canadian’s next challenge could be against Tomás Martín Etcheverry or Valentin Vacherot. He holds a 1-0 head-to-head lead against both players.
In the quarterfinals, Flavio Cobolli, Cameron Norrie, Stefanos Tsitsipas, or Medvedev could await. Medvedev holds an 8-2 lead over the Canadian but has never beaten him on clay. Tsitsipas has a 7-3 head-to-head record against Auger-Aliassime, while Cobolli has enjoyed a strong start to the clay-court swing and has beaten the fourth seed in both their meetings on the ATP Tour.
If he makes it to the semifinals, he would likely have to overcome Sinner in order to secure his place in the final.
Comparing the four players’ Italian Open draws, it appears that Zverev could face the toughest route to the final. Blockx is coming off a strong run in Madrid, while Paul showcased his clay-court prowess last year, and Fonseca nearly defeated Zverev in Monte-Carlo.
Djokovic will fancy his chances of a strong return to the ATP Tour, while Auger-Aliassime will come up against a number of players with strong clay-court records.
Sinner will be the favorite to win the Italian Open but will have to possibly overcome Menšík, Fils, Shelton, and Auger-Aliassime to make the final.
