The Madrid Open marks the next ATP Masters 1000 tournament, and several of the top men’s tennis stars will be vying for the coveted title. Jannik Sinner has won four Masters events in a row and will be the favorite to triumph in Madrid, especially with Carlos Alcaraz sidelined due to injury.
Alexander Zverev, Félix Auger-Aliassime, and Ben Shelton headline a group of talented contenders in Spain. Ahead of the 2026 Madrid Open, we analyze the projected draw for the top four seeds in men’s singles.
Jannik Sinner’s Path to Madrid Open Title
Sinner will receive a first-round bye and will begin his Madrid Open campaign against one of two qualifiers who will compete in the first round. The Italian could then face 32nd seed Gabriel Diallo in the third round.
Possible fourth round opponents for Sinner include Tommy Paul and Cameron Norrie. Sinner holds a 4-1 head-to-head lead against Paul and has never faced Norrie on tour.
If Sinner makes it to the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open, he could face fifth seed Alex de Minaur or ninth seed Andrey Rublev. Talented youngsters João Fonseca and Rafael Jódar are also in this section of the draw and will be eager to secure a quarterfinal meeting against Sinner.
In the semifinals, Sinner could face Shelton, Lorenzo Musetti, Jiří Lehečka, or recently crowned Barcelona Open champion Arthur Fils. Out of these four players, only Shelton has previously defeated the Italian (Shanghai, 2023).
If Sinner makes it through to the final, his possible opponents include Zverev, Auger-Aliassime, or Daniil Medvedev.
Alexander Zverev’s Path to Madrid Open Title
Zverev will begin his bid to win the Madrid Open for the third time in his career against Nuno Borges or Mariano Navone in the second round. No. 30 seed Ugo Humbert could be a possible third-round opponent for the German.
If Zverev manages to make it to the fourth round, Jakub Menšík or Karen Khachanov could be his possible opponents. Zverev has never faced Menšík and holds a 6-3 head-to-head lead over Khachanov.
In the quarterfinals, Zverev could once again face Flavio Cobolli after losing to the Italian at the BMW Open last week. Other possible quarterfinal opponents for Zverev include Medvedev and Learner Tien. Zverev holds an 8-14 win-loss record against the Russian and has lost once in three meetings against Tien.
Auger-Aliassime, Casper Ruud, or Alexander Bublik could then await Zverev in the semifinals, followed by a possible final against Sinner. Zverev leads his head-to-head against Auger-Aliassime 6-4. He has also won 4 of his 6 matches against Ruud, and only 1 of 4 matches against Bublik.
Félix Auger-Aliassime’s Path to Madrid Open Title
Auger-Aliassime is enjoying a solid season and has climbed up to fifth place in the ATP Rankings. Seeded third in Madrid, he will face Sebastián Báez or a qualifier in the second round.
Brandon Nakashima, Alexander Blockx, or Botic van de Zandschulp could pose a tough test for Auger-Aliassime in the third round.
If he makes it to the fourth round, the Canadian will go up against Luciano Darderi or Francisco Cerúndolo. Auger-Aliassime holds a 2-1 head-to-head lead against Cerúndolo and has never faced the Italian.
In the quarterfinals, Auger-Aliassime could face Bublik or reigning champion Ruud. The 25-year-old holds a 5-3 head-to-head lead over Ruud, and also defeated him in Monte-Carlo this year and at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Against Bublik, the head-to-head stands at 5-2 in Auger-Aliassime’s favor.
If the Canadian makes it to the semifinals, he could face Zverev before a possible final against Sinner.
Ben Shelton’s Path to Madrid Open Title
Shelton will be full of confidence after winning the BMW Open for his first ATP Tour title in Europe. Clay may not be his favorite surface, but the American continues to grind it out and compete at the top level.
Seeded fourth in Madrid, Shelton will face one of two big-serving players in the second round. Raphaël Collignon and Matteo Berrettini could both offer him a tough opening assignment in Spain.
Tomás Martín Etcheverry could be Shelton’s opponent in the third round, although the American holds a 3-0 head-to-head lead against the Argentine.
Shelton’s possible fourth-round opponents include the in-form Arthur Fils and Valentin Vacherot. Both players are flying high at the moment, with Fils coming off his triumph at the Barcelona Open and Vacherot on the back of a semifinal run in Monte-Carlo.
Although Shelton will fancy his chances of beating both players, having overcome Vacherot at the Australian Open earlier this year. He also has a 2-1 head-to-head lead against Fils.
If he makes it to the quarterfinals, Shelton could face de Minaur, Fonseca, or Rublev. Shelton defeated Fonseca in Munich and enjoyed a comfortable win over de Minaur in Canada last year. He has also won both his matches against Rublev. Shelton could then face Sinner in the semifinals, and Zverev in the final.
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Comparing the draws of the top four seeds, it appears that Zverev has the easiest pathway to the final on paper. Sinner will no doubt be the favorite to win in Madrid, but he will have to overcome a number of quality opponents in order to do that.
Auger-Aliassime will also fancy his chances of making a deep run in Madrid, but could face some difficult hurdles later in the tournament. Meanwhile, Shelton has a number of tricky opponents in his section, but will take confidence from his strong head-to-head record against them all.
