The draw for the Madrid Open has been made, and several of the top women’s players will be vying for the title in the fifth WTA 1000 event of the year. Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff, and Iga Świątek will be the top four seeds and among the favorites to win.
Sabalenka is also the reigning champion, having won the Madrid Open thrice. Świątek won the tournament in 2024. Ahead of the 2026 event, we take a closer look at the projected draw for the top four seeds and an analysis of who might have a tougher road to the title.
Aryna Sabalenka’s Path to Madrid Open Title
Sabalenka is making her 2026 clay-court debut in Madrid. She begins her campaign in the second round against one of Peyton Stearns or Loïs Boisson. The latter enjoyed a remarkable run at the French Open last year, making the semifinals, and could be a tricky opponent for even the top players. She was, however, sidelined due to injury in recent months.
A third-round clash against Jaqueline Cristian could then lie in store for Sabalenka, followed by a possible fourth-round meeting against Naomi Osaka or Marie Bouzková. Sabalenka defeated Osaka earlier this year en route to winning the title at Indian Wells.
If she makes it to the quarterfinals, Sabalenka could face Jasmine Paolini or Belinda Bencic. The Belarusian defeated Paolini in Stuttgart last year and holds a 2-1 head-to-head lead over Bencic.
Świątek, Mirra Andreeva, or Elina Svitolina could be Sabalenka’s possible semifinal opponents. Sabalenka has had the upper hand over Świątek of late, but the overall head-to-head is still 8-5 in the Pole’s favor. Andreeva defeated Sabalenka the last time they met, while Svitolina has won just once against the world No. 1 in seven meetings.
Sabalenka could then face Gauff or Rybakina in the final.
Elena Rybakina’s Path to Madrid Open Title
Rybakina has started the clay-court season brilliantly, winning the title in Stuttgart. She is the second seed in Madrid and begins her campaign against Elena-Gabriela Ruse or Antonia Ružić. She could then face the Paris Olympics gold medalist, Zheng Qinwen, in the third round.
Jeļena Ostapenko or Madison Keys could then pose a challenge for the 2026 Australian Open winner in the fourth round. The Latvian has become more of a doubles specialist of late but does hold a strong clay-court record. Rybakina’s head-to-head record against Keys stands at 3-3.
Rybakina’s possible quarterfinal opponents include Amanda Anisimova and Ekaterina Alexandrova. If she makes the semifinals, the 26-year-old could face Gauff, Jessica Pegula, or Victoria Mboko. Rybakina has already beaten Pegula three times this year but has a 0-1 record against Gauff in singles.
The World No. 2’s possible Madrid Open final opponents could be Sabalenka, Świątek, or Andreeva.
Coco Gauff’s Path to Madrid Open Title
After reaching the Madrid Open final and winning the French Open last year, Gauff will have high expectations heading to Spain this year. The American faces either Oksana Selekhmeteva or a qualifier in the second round, followed by a possible third-round clash against Sorana Cîrstea.
If Gauff makes it to the fourth round, she could face Liudmila Samsonova or Linda Nosková. She has not lost to either player in their previous meetings.
Gauff’s possible quarterfinal opponents include compatriot Pegula and the highly rated Mboko. Her head-to-head record against Mboko is 1-1, and she has lost 5 of her 8 matches against Pegula.
Rybakina, Keys, and Anisimova could be Gauff’s possible semifinal opponents, followed by a potential final against Świątek or Sabalenka. Gauff lost to Sabalenka in the finals of this year’s Miami Open and last year’s Madrid Open. But she has beaten Świątek in each of their last four meetings.
Iga Świątek’s Path to Madrid Open Title
Świątek will be desperate for a strong run in Madrid after a disappointing run in Stuttgart. The Pole won the WTA 1000 event in 2024 and begins her 2026 campaign against Daria Kasatkina or a qualifier.
If she makes the third round, Świątek could face Ann Li. Leylah Fernandez and Iva Jovic are Świątek’s possible fourth-round opponents.
A quarterfinal against Andreeva or Svitolina could then await Świątek. The six-time Grand Slam champion lost to the Russian in Stuttgart and was beaten by the Ukrainian at Indian Wells. Both players are in strong form at the moment, and Świątek will have to be at her best if she wants to make a deep run in Madrid.
A possible semifinal against Sabalenka and a final against Gauff or Rybakina could then await Świątek.
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It will be interesting to see which player can manage to get the upper hand at the Madrid Open. On paper, it appears that Świątek has the most difficult draw and will have to overcome several big-name players if she wants to triumph at the WTA 1000 event.
Sabalenka, on the other hand, will be the favorite to triumph in Madrid after completing the Sunshine Double and enjoying a dominant start to the year.
