World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka will face fifth-ranked Jessica Pegula in her second round-robin stage match at the 2025 WTA Finals on Tuesday, November 4.
Sabalenka was in red-hot form during her tournament opener in Riyadh on Sunday, hitting 24 winners for 28 unforced errors to swat aside World No. 8 Jasmine Paolini 6-3, 6-1 in one hour and 11 minutes. With her victory, the 27-year-old improved to a 9-8 win/loss record at the year-end championships. She can qualify for the semifinals for the third consecutive year with yet another win on Tuesday.
Pegula, meanwhile, is looking to make it out of her WTA Finals group for the first time since the 2022 edition in Fort Worth, USA, which saw her reach the title match. The World No. 5 put together a mentally strong display against defending champion Coco Gauff in her first round-robin match on Sunday. She converted nine of her 18 break points to come through 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2 in two hours and 15 minutes.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Match Details
- Date: Nov. 4, 2025
- Tournament: WTA Finals 2025
- Round: Round-robin
- Venue: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Category: WTA Finals
- Surface: Indoor Hardcourt
- Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, TSN, Sky Sports
Sabalenka vs Pegula Head-to-Head
Aryna Sabalenka leads Jessica Pegula by a large margin of 8-3 in their head-to-head meetings on the WTA Tour. While the Belarusian has won five of their eight hardcourt clashes, they split their two matches at the WTA Finals in 2022 and 2023.
Sabalenka vs Pegula Prediction
Although Aryna Sabalenka won only 66% (29/44) of her first-serve points in her first round-robin match in Riyadh, she did hit 11 aces – most of which came during crucial points. However, the World No. 1 would like to perform better on serve against an opponent of Jessica Pegula’s pedigree, as the latter will not cede an inch during her return games.
In their Wuhan Open semifinal encounter, the American won 80% (28/35) of her second-return points and 52.4% (53/101) of her overall return points while breaking seven times and saving two match points.
Pegula put together a similarly all-round display against Sabalenka in her WTA Finals victory in 2023, taking nearly 60% (30/51) of her return points and 67% (26/39) of her first-serve points to complete a 6-4, 6-3 victory. The 31-year-old will have to emulate the above numbers, if not go above and beyond them, to stand a chance against the four-time Major winner on Tuesday.
For what it’s worth, her consistency and rally tolerance are two of her biggest weapons in this match-up.
Sabalenka is adept at both attack and defense, but is susceptible to uncharacteristic errors when she is under pressure. The first set of their 12th career encounter will likely influence the outcome. While the Belarusian has lost four matches this year from a set up, an early lead against Pegula wouldn’t hurt in terms of establishing a momentum advantage in her favor.
Prediction: Sabalenka to win in three sets.