Fifth seed Alex de Minaur will look to avoid an upset on Friday when he takes on home favorite Rafael Jódar at the Madrid Open. The 19-year-old has enjoyed an impressive start to his clay-court swing and will be eager to make his mark at his hometown tournament. Can the Australian overcome the pressure of a packed stadium cheering for his opponent on a surface that is by no means his favorite?
Alex de Minaur vs Rafael Jódar Match Details
Date: April 24, 2026
Tournament: Madrid Open 2026
Round: Second Round (Round of 64)
Venue: La Caja Mágica, Madrid, Spain
Surface: Outdoor Clay
Category: ATP Masters 1000
Live Telecast: Tennis Channel, Sky Sports, TSN
De Minaur vs Jódar Head-to-Head Record
This will be the first meeting between these two players on the ATP Tour. Jódar is flying high at the moment and has seen his ranking skyrocket to 42nd after his title in Morocco and a semifinals run in Barcelona, where he lost to eventual champion Arthur Fils in three sets.
Jódar also claimed a come-from-behind win in the first round, defeating Jesper De Jong 2-6, 7-5, 6-4. He was aided by the crowd’s support as he overcame a nervy start to come up with clutch winners in the third set of a tense match.
Next up for Jódar is a second-round match against de Minaur, who has had a mixed start to his clay-court swing. The 27-year-old fought his way to the quarterfinals in Monte-Carlo, where he was stunned by another hometown hero in Valentin Vacherot.
Last week, de Minaur suffered a disappointing straight-sets exit in Barcelona at the hands of Hamad Medjedovic.
It is no secret that clay is not de Minaur’s favorite surface. But he has improved on the red dirt in recent years, using his defensive instincts and excellent court coverage to his advantage.
De Minaur vs Jódar Prediction and Pick
Jódar is in inspired form at the moment, having won 9 of his last 10 matches. The Spaniard will need to raise his game up a level if he wants to defeat de Minaur. But he will have the overwhelming support of the crowd as he looks to pull off an upset against the Australian.
The key for de Minaur will be to avoid getting bogged down by the atmosphere. He is the more experienced player and has the tools to weather the storm. But he has also only won 4 of his last 9 matches and has struggled for form since winning the title in Rotterdam.
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The PFSN Tennis Simulator is expecting a tight contest, giving de Minaur only a 54% chance of victory. We believe that this match could go down to the wire, with Jódar continuing his stunning run and claiming the biggest win of his fledgling career.
Pick – Jódar in three sets.
