The US Open semifinals delivered high drama as Amanda Anisimova staged a remarkable comeback against four-time Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka. After dropping the first set, the American found her rhythm to secure a thrilling 6-7(4), 7-6(3), 6-3 victory that lasted nearly three hours. This win set up a final showdown with defending champion Aryna Sabalenka, creating anticipation for one of the most compelling matches of the 2025 season.
Now, just hours before the women’s singles final, Patrick Mouratoglou, Osaka’s former coach and respected tennis analyst, delivered bold predictions about how the American can trouble the world number one.
What Did Patrick Mouratoglou Predict About Amanda Anisimova’s Chances Against Aryna Sabalenka?
Anisimova’s victory over Osaka showcased the aggressive baseline game that has made her such a tough opponent for the world’s top players. The 24-year-old American unleashed 50 winners during the match, demonstrating the explosive power that has troubled top opponents throughout her career. Her performance caught the attention of renowned coach Mouratoglou, who shared tactical insights about why Anisimova has succeeded against power players like Sabalenka, winning “6 out of 9 times against Aryna (since 2019).”
Aryna Sabalenka and Amanda Anisimova will face each other in the U.S. Open final.
Amanda leads the head to head 6-3.
They’ve split their meetings this season 1-1., with Amanda winning their most recent one in the Wimbledon semifinals.
Aryna is into her 6th consecutive final… pic.twitter.com/JrHCBB91FC
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) September 5, 2025
According to Mouratoglou’s analysis, Anisimova holds a significant advantage in their matchup because she “takes the ball very early” and “plays extremely flat.” The former Serena Williams coach explained that Amanda is “probably one of the players who plays the fastest” on tour, which creates specific problems for Sabalenka’s game style. This assessment aligns with Anisimova’s playing characteristics – she’s known as an aggressive baseliner with powerful groundstrokes from both wings, particularly her destructive two-handed backhand.
Mouratoglou acknowledged Sabalenka’s credentials, stating, “Aryna is an incredible player. Number one in the world, very complete, very powerful.” However, he pointed out one critical vulnerability when facing Anisimova’s style. He highlighted that when players “take time away” from opponents through fast, flat shots, it disrupts the rhythm of power players. “So when you play extremely fast and move her, she can’t use her power same way at all,” he added.
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The coach also emphasized Anisimova’s exceptional return game as a crucial factor. He noted that Anisimova has “probably one of the best timings on tour” and said “she’s reacting fast and adapting very fast.” This return prowess was evident in her semifinal victory, where she won 67% of second-serve return points against Osaka, neutralizing one of the game’s most powerful serves.
Finally, Mouratoglou gave his verdict on the final, stating, “If I have to say what’s going to be very important in that final is the first shot, serve and return. The first shot will define if yes or no, you are the one dictating.”
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Why Does Sabalenka Keep Struggling Against American Players?
This tactical breakdown gains extra significance when considering Sabalenka’s recent struggles against American opponents. The world number one has faced a string of defeats to US players in major tournaments throughout 2025. Madison Keys stunned Sabalenka at the Australian Open, returning from a set down to win 6-3, 2-6, 7-5 in the final. With that victory, Keys became the fourth-oldest first-time Grand Slam champion in the Open Era.
Coco Gauff continued the pattern at the French Open by defeating Sabalenka 6-7(5), 6-2, 6-4 in another dramatic final. Gauff’s victory marked her second Grand Slam title and first at Roland Garros. Now, Anisimova presents another American challenge, with their head-to-head record heavily favoring the US player at 6-3. This includes wins at major tournaments – Anisimova defeated Sabalenka at the 2019 Australian Open and French Open, plus their recent Wimbledon semifinal clash, where the American won 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.
Aryna Sabalenka will look to repeat.
Amanda Anisimova will look to win her home Grand Slam.
Here we go. pic.twitter.com/h6UHPrZ7gJ
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 5, 2025
The statistics support Mouratoglou’s analysis of Anisimova’s tactical advantages. She ranks third in break points won at this tournament (29), trailing only the recently eliminated semifinalists Pegula (31) and Osaka (30). Her ability to neutralize powerful serves through exceptional timing and court positioning has been a consistent strength throughout her career. These factors combine to create the tactical matchup problems that Mouratoglou identified in his assessment.
