2020 NFL Draft: What each wide receiver hungry NFC team needs

Several members of a loaded NFC approach the 2020 NFL Draft with wide receiver among their team needs, with the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings likely to be prioritizing the position. That trio – who all made the playoffs last year with the 49ers going all the way to the Super Bowl – could not have picked a better year to require help at receiver.

The stacked nature of the receiver class means immediate contributors should be available on days two and three of the draft.

What should the 49ers, Eagles, and Vikings be looking for as they attempt to address the position in the draft? With help from Pro Football Network’s Director of Analytics, Brett Yarris, we crunched the Offensive Share Metric (OSM) numbers for each team’s receiving corps from 2019 to provide an answer to that question.

OSM uses the NFL’s NextGen Stats and a series of algorithms to assess a player’s influence on his offense’s production by looking at the factors only he could control.

We averaged out the week-by-week grades for the Niners, Eagles, and Vikings to examine how they performed compared to the rest of the league. For the reigning NFC Champions, it is clear a significant upgrade is required at the position.

San Francisco 49ers – A complement to Deebo Samuel

The trade for Emmanuel Sanders, which happened before the Week 8 blowout of the Carolina Panthers, brought some stability to a wide receiver group that was otherwise beset by inconsistency.

Even with the addition of Sanders, the Niners hovered around the league average for OSM points scored per minute (represented on the graph by the yellow band). Their above-average displays typically came as a result of monstrous performances from Deebo Samuel.

Samuel was responsible for the two highest individual OSM grades of the season by a 49ers wide receiver. He received a score of 48.17 in the Niners’ Week 2 demolition of the Cincinnati Bengals and a grade of 54.83 for his instrumental role in the crucial Week 17 win at the Seattle Seahawks.

Finishing the year as the league’s WR2 by OSM, Samuel should continue to be crucial to the success of the Niners’ offense. However, with Sanders now out of the picture after signing with the New Orleans Saints in free agency, he needs a supporting cast member who can make a consistent impact.

The 49ers had six weeks where they did not have a single receiver qualify for an OSM grade. The 9-0 win over the Washington Redskins in a torrential downpour in Week 7 should be thrown out as passing was made near-impossible. San Francisco’s incredible success running the ball, particularly in the playoffs, also must be considered a factor.

That is important context when analyzing the Niners’ receivers. Still, the fact they had several weeks where the wideouts scarcely contributed to the offense’s production is illustrative of a group in need of reinforcements.

Samuel is a remarkably physical jack-of-all-trades talent who is a nightmare to defend. However, defenses won’t have as many issues doing so in 2020 if they can key in on him and tight end George Kittle. A top-tier complement who can lift the burden from last year’s second-round pick is a necessity for a team with the 13th and 31st overall picks.

Philadelphia Eagles – Reliability

Healthy bodies could be the answer for the Eagles, who struggled to keep any semblance of receiving corps together last season as injuries decimated their wideouts.

That they were somehow still able to win the NFC East owes much to Greg Ward, who emerged late down the stretch to push the Eagles into the playoffs.

Ward, who was the Eagles’ sole OSM qualifier at receiver for the final four weeks of the regular season, played a significant role in a post-bye week improvement by Philadelphia’s wideouts.

After their Week 10 bye, the OSM performance of the Eagles receivers improved at an acceleration rate of x1.4.

What the Eagles need is more of what Ward gave them, reliability, as he established himself as somebody whom quarterback Carson Wentz could trust to come through when it mattered.

Still on the roster, the aging pair of Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson are worthy of that trust but have not proved capable of staying on the field.

The great depth of this wide receiver class plays into the hands of an Eagles team that also has several needs on defense. Regardless of when they choose to address the position, the key for the Eagles is to find a durable receiver with a high floor and, in turn, give Wentz another target in whom he can put his faith.

Minnesota Vikings – Vindication for the Stefon Diggs trade

Getting back the 22nd overall pick was an excellent return for the Vikings as they cut ties with a receiver who had made little secret of his unhappiness in Minnesota.

However, the decision to send Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills will only be vindicated if they can find a satisfactory replacement. That may be a job easier said than done.

The Vikings had seven weeks in which they were above the league average in OSM points per minute by receivers.

Through recording four elite grades during a stellar 2019 in which he racked up a career-high 1,130 receiving yards, Diggs contributed substantially to those efforts.

Few receivers can match Diggs’ combination of route-running craft and ability at the catch point. With the 49ers joining the Eagles in being ahead of Minnesota in the draft along with a clutch of receiver-needy teams in the AFC, finding a player who can adequately fill the void may be tough at 22.

Kirk Cousins earned a contract extension this offseason thanks in no small part to the rapport he developed with Diggs and Adam Thielen.

All signs point to regression for Cousins and the Vikings’ offense if they fail to identify a suitable replacement for Diggs. The front office may have been relieved to get Diggs out of the locker room. Yet, the pressure will be on the personnel staff should Minnesota prove unable to fill the void left by a player whose contribution to the offense was evident on tape and in the numbers.