If you’re anything like me, Super Bowl Sunday is an all-day event. Sure, the game is the focal point, but the adrenaline starts pumping from the second I wake up. Why wait to have betting action in play?
Various sportsbooks are offering cross-sport props that pair other games in play today against those participating in the big game. Basketball is the sport that is most in play today, so let’s take a look at how to attack those cross-sport betting options.
Super Bowl Cross-Sport Bets
Jayson Tatum Points (at MIA) vs. Chiefs Points
The Heat are a bottom-10 pace team, and their hope to remain competitive this afternoon is to keep the possession count low. Jayson Tatum has played 16 games this season against the 10 slowest-moving teams in the league, and his scoring average is higher in those games than when not (29.1 points per game).
Will that be enough to cash this bet?
It depends on which Mahomes trend you are buying the most into. For his career …
- Mahomes as an underdog: 33.2 points per game
- Mahomes postseason: 30.2 points per game
- Mahomes when the projected total is over 46 points: 30.1 points per game
- Mahomes career against teams that made the playoffs that season: 29.1 points per game
Sportsbooks have the Kansas City Chiefs implied for 23-ish points, a total that appears low based on his track record. Betting on Mahomes as an underdog has been about as profitable as anything in the NFL (10-1-1 ATS), and backing his team as a prop underdog in this spot is very much in play.
Pick: Chiefs points (+4) at Circa
Caitlin Clark (at NEB) Points vs. George Kittle Receiving Yards
Caitlin Clark torched the Cornhuskers for 38 points on January 27, scoring 41.3% of Iowa’s points and taking 37.3% of their shots from the field. She is as high-usage of a player as there is in the sport, but those numbers are well above her lofty baselines this year, leading me to project some regression on that performance.
When Brock Purdy starts with a game projected to see over 46 points scored, as this game is, Kittle is averaging 68.6 receiving yards per game. That number jumps to 83.0 yards when the spread is under seven points, with the San Francisco 49ers’ star tight end reaching 65 yards in eight of those 11 games.
Clark is as capable as anyone of posting a massive number, but the ceiling of a basketball player simply doesn’t compete with that of a football player in a wager like this.
This is the second team Iowa will be playing for a second time, and in the first, Wisconsin fared considerably better against Clark in the sequel (she made 11-of-19 shots in the first meeting and 8-of-18 in the second). Last season, in the four instances in which Clark faced a team twice, her efficiency dropped when playing on the road in three of them.
By no means am I calling for Clark to be shut down, but Kittle’s potential and matchup simply make him too enticing to pass up in this spot.
Pick: George Kittle receiving yards (-15.5) at Circa
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points (vs SAC) vs. Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards
Betting against either one of these All Pros is dangerous. This season, SGA is averaging 30.3 points per game when facing defenses that rank bottom 10 in opponent eFG% (effective FG%), but in only one of those instances did he clear 33 points.
As for the star, Christian McCaffrey has been more involved since joining the 49ers in games with a spread under seven points (targeted on 23.5% of his routes) than games with a wider gap in talent (21.4%).
MORE: Why Sportsbooks Are Rooting Against Christian McCaffrey and Travis Kelce
In contests with a closer expected score, CMC has averaged 4.6 catches on 6.1 targets per game, numbers that figure to sustain against a Kansas City defense that ranked 21st in opponent CMP% to the running back position.
Due to the importance to their respective teams, the floor case for both of these players is reasonably strong, and today’s matchup is favorable for each of them. The ceiling, however, is only so high for a basketball player in a prop like this, whereas McCaffrey can turn a single play into a bet winner.
Pick: Christian McCaffrey receiving yards (-2.5) at Circa
Total Points in Kings/Thunder vs. Patrick Mahomes Pass Yards
Both of these NBA teams carry strong guards with playmaking centers. The Thunder defend at a higher level, but if the Kings are clicking, they are capable of scoring on anyone. This season, when OKC plays a bottom-10 defense in terms of eFG%, they are seeing an average of 237.7 total points scored (125.6 for them and 112.1 for their opponent).
On the Super Bowl side of things, it all depends on which trend you want to buy. Mahomes has thrown for at least 270 yards in 64.7% of his career playoff games, averaging 282.5 in the process. That number jumps to 299.1 if you only look at career games in which he is an underdog.
But not all is optimistic for the reigning champion. In his last 10 games with a spread of three or fewer points, Mahomes has averaged just 258.9 passing yards per game. It’s common practice to remove the best and worst performance within a sample size to eliminate the impact of tail outcomes, and if you do that, his average dips to 248.6.
Pick: Total points in Kings/Thunder (+17.5) at Circa
Points in Celtics/Heat vs. Brock Purdy Pass Yards
By today’s standards, the Celtics vs. Heat game could be something of a slog. Miami has played 18 games against top-10 defenses this season, and there have been an average of 217.3 points scored in those contests.
The expectation here is for Boston to handle their business, so it is worth noting that they are averaging 122.3 points per game in their road victories this season. If they can do the heavy lifting in scoring, this total could push Purdy to produce above expectations.
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The average Super Bowl quarterback attempts 17.6% more pass attempts in the championship game than they did in the season prior, something that boosts my projection of Purdy in a significant way, given the efficiency he has displayed.
My mean projection for Purdy is 265.9 yards tonight, and I’m letting that drive where I’m going in this prop that involves a basketball game that I fear has some blowout potential.
Pick: Brock Purdy passing yards (-19.5 at Circa)
De’Aaron Fox (at OKC) Points vs. 49ers Points
It’s been tough going of late for Fox, with a December shoulder injury coming up as a potential reason for his inconsistencies, but he has had no problems this season with top-10 defenses. His 27.1 points per game in those spots essentially aligns with his season average.
But is his upside enough to offset the seemingly high floor of the 49ers? When Purdy is healthy (I’m excluding the NFC Title game against the Eagles that he left in the first quarter), San Francisco averages 30.3 points per game and has reached 27 points in 72% of those games.
Fox and San Francisco both face teams with strong defenses and offenses that are going to force them to be aggressive. I worry about the lowering of Fox’s floor in the New Year, and while I think he can bounce back coming out of the All-Star Break, this is a tough spot to back him if you think sportsbooks have the right idea in projecting the 49ers for 26-27 points.
Pick: 49ers points (+3) at Circa
Boston Celtics Points vs. Chiefs Rushing Yards
This season, the Heat are allowing 120.9 points per game when facing a top-10 offense, something that is certainly in play against a Celtics offense that has ranked among the elite all season long.
They have allowed the opponent to reach triple digits in every one of those games, something the Chiefs have done in just nine of 20 games this season on the ground. A few other noteworthy trends…
- When Mahomes is an underdog: 116.0 rush yards per game
- When Mahomes wins: 116.5 rushing yards per game
- When Mahomes losses: 98.3 rushing yards per game
For me, this is a different way of picking a winner in the Super Bowl (hence the similar odds). Across the NFL this season, winning teams average 31.1% more rushing yards per game.
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I think it’s more likely that Kansas City wins and doesn’t rush for enough yards to cash this ticket than they lose and run for more yards than the Celtics score points.
Pick: Boston Celtics (-125 at DraftKings)
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