Kyle Soppe’s Super Bowl 58 Predictions and Picks: Why You Should Target Brock Purdy, Isiah Pacheco, and a Timing Prop

The first wave of Super Bowl predictions are in. Check out where the numbers lean on early Super Bowl bets that vary from traditional to unique.

As we prepare for the final football game of the season with the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers set to square off, the Super Bowl predictions are beginning to be ironed out.

That’s the beauty of this week. While we lose out on the volume of games, we get the space to drill down and attack this specific matchup in a variety of ways.

I’ll be a part of covering Super Bowl LVIII from every betting angle possible between now and kickoff as we prepare to end the season with a bang. From Super Bowl squares to goofy props to picking a winner — we will have you covered across the board.

When it comes to where I stand at this moment, there are four bets on my card.

Super Bowl 58 Odds and Predictions

  • Spread
    49ers -2
  • Moneyline
    49ers -128, Chiefs +108
  • Total

Brock Purdy Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

If you want to get your hands dirty and craft passing yardage projections for this game, I have the article for you: Early Picks for Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy.

That piece walks you through the specifics of my building out of an expectation for this game and includes variations based on your specific opinion as to how this game will play out.

There are a few lean details, but my favorite angle is for Purdy to clear his current number, something that he has done in each of San Francisco’s first two games this postseason.

Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)

The narrative heading into the Super Bowl is around the greatness of Mahomes and, of course, the presence of Taylor Swift. Overlooked, to a degree, is Isiah Pacheco, a player that I believe is set to impact this game as much as anyone.

The Panthers and Cardinals were two of the worst teams in the league this season; that much we can agree on, right? They combined to win six games and were rarely competitive down the stretch.

Well, those are the only two defenses with a lower rush EPA this season than the 49ers. We give Andy Reid plenty of credit for being an offensive genius, and I trust him holding my money in a bet like this as I am banking on him exploiting the primary weakness of his opponent.

Pacheco has been handed the ball 15+ times in eight of his past nine games, and the lone exception was that loss on Christmas day against the Raiders that featured a pair of defensive touchdowns in seven seconds and 10 Mahomes rush attempts.

That game happened, but it’s not exactly something I’d call repeatable.

Pacheco has cleared this number in all three games this postseason, and that hasn’t happened by accident. Simply put, he gets harder to tackle with time. His yards gained per carry after contact are spiking, something we saw down the stretch of last season as well.

  • 2023: After Week 12, YPC after contact up 22.7%
  • 2022: After Week 14, YPC after contact up 21%

Given the point spread in this game, I don’t anticipate game script being a major issue — if we can pencil in Pacheco for 15+ totes in this one, I feel good about cashing this ticket.

Kansas City Chiefs Over 2.5 Sacks (-150 at DraftKings)

This mobile version of Purdy (62 rushing yards this postseason) is something new for a QB who, before the postseason, hadn’t run for 15 yards in a game since October. I’m not buying him as a true threat with his legs, but the confidence in trying to escape doesn’t hurt this angle.

  • 49ers sack rate allowed, Weeks 1-7: 5.1%
  • 49ers sack rate allowed, since: 7.8%

The Chiefs ranked second in pressure rate this season and have proven more than capable of finishing off their opportunities. In 12 games this season with an over/under north of 45 points, Kansas City has notched at least three sacks 10 times.

I like this bet more if you believe the Chiefs are operating with a lead, but even if they aren’t, the fact that they rely more on their defense than years past puts them in a good spot to clear this number, and is why I’m willing to lay some juice.

No Score in the First 6 Minutes (-135 at DraftKings)

This is the first of many different sorts of bets we will be detailing over the next 1.5 days and one that I feel good about jumping on now.

  • “No” has cashed in two of the three Mahomes Super Bowls
  • “No” has cashed in six of the past seven Super Bowls
  • “No” has cashed in 15 of 20 Chiefs games this season
    • Winner in eight of their past nine games
  • “No” has only cashed in 9 of 19 49er games
    • Winner in three of their past four

MORE: Undefeated Recent Trend Favors Kansas City Chiefs

Both of these teams have playmakers who are capable of making big plays, but they are also more than capable of extending long drives (11.3 plays per scoring drive against the Ravens for the Chiefs). With both teams capable of running the ball, an early running clock works in our favor, and a single punt might be all we need!

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