Super Bowl 58 will have plenty of stars on show as the San Francisco 49ers face the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams are loaded with talent, but which players could make the difference and help bring home that Lombardi Trophy?
Ahead of Sunday’s big game, our NFL betting experts broke down their favorite Super Bowl prop bets, identifying where they see potential value in this matchup.
Top San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Player Prop Bets
Isiah Pacheco Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The narrative heading into the Super Bowl is around the greatness of Mahomes and, of course, the presence of Taylor Swift. Overlooked, to a degree, is Isiah Pacheco, a player that I believe is set to impact this game as much as anyone.
The Panthers and Cardinals were two of the worst teams in the league this season; that much we can agree on, right? They combined to win six games and were rarely competitive down the stretch.
Well, those are the only two defenses with a lower rush EPA this season than the 49ers. We give Andy Reid plenty of credit for being an offensive genius, and I trust him holding my money in a bet like this as I am banking on him exploiting the primary weakness of his opponent.
Pacheco has carried the ball 15+ times in eight of his past nine games, and the lone exception was that loss on Christmas day against the Raiders that featured a pair of defensive touchdowns in seven seconds and 10 Mahomes rush attempts.
That game happened, but it’s not exactly something I’d call repeatable.
Pacheco has cleared this number in all three games this postseason, and that hasn’t happened by accident. Simply put, he gets harder to tackle with time. His yards gained per carry after contact are spiking, something we saw down the stretch of last season as well.
- 2023: After Week 12, YPC after contact up 22.7%
- 2022: After Week 14, YPC after contact up 21%
Given the point spread in this game, I don’t anticipate game script being a major issue — if we can pencil in Pacheco for 15+ totes in this one, I feel good about cashing this ticket.
Isiah Pacheco Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (+100 at ESPN BET)
Rolfe: I am going to piggyback off Soppe’s hard work here and just build in why I believe the over on rushing attempts is just as good of a play as the over on rushing yards. You have to go back to the Christmas Day debacle against the Las Vegas Raiders to find the last time Pacheco did not hit 15 or more rushing attempts.
Across the entire season, Pacheco carried the ball 15 or more times in 12 of his 17 games. Unfortunately, the juice for over 14.5 is -190, which does not present much value. In three of his last four games and four of his last six, Pacheco has carried the ball more than 17 times.
I expect both teams to play with an element of clock control in the first half, and Pacheco will be key to that. The 49ers rush defense struggled last time out against the Lions, and the Chiefs should look to exploit that in Super Bowl 58.
Brock Purdy Over 246.5 Passing Yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Soppe: If you want to get your hands dirty and craft passing yardage projections for this game, I have the article for you: Early Picks for Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy.
In short, the Chiefs are an elite pressure defense that suits itself well to exactly what the 49ers want to do through the air — quick-hitting passes that allow their elite play-makers to get the ball in their hands in space.
My projection math returns this as a good bet regardless of how you think the game plays out, though it does gain win equity if you believe that the Chiefs end up winning this game.
Brandon Aiyuk Length of First Reception Under 14.5 Yards (-140 at DraftKings)
Soppe: There have been whispers of fading Aiyuk props for this game due to a projected shadow from L’Jarius Sneed, and while I think there is some merit to that, it’s not why I think his first grab on Sunday will come up short.
During a breakout season, Aiyuk has been a consistent downfield option game-over-game, but not so much on a quarterly basis.
Percentage of receptions gaining 15+ yards for Aiyuk this season:
- Quarter 1: 29.2%
- Quarter 2: 45.8%
- Quarter 3: 75%
- Quarter 4: 70.6%
What is the cause of this? Simple, he’s not used the same way early on. Aiyuk’s aDOT is 19.1% lower in first halves than second halves this season and shorter opportunities naturally lead to shorter gains.
And guess what? That aligns perfectly with how the Chiefs defend. Against Kansas City, opponents have an aDOT that is 35% lower in the first quarter than the rest of the game. With Kansas City ranking 12th in yards per catch allowed after the reception this season, the odds of Aiyuk taking a shorter pass 15 yards aren’t great — I’m happy to lay the juice here.
Justin Watson Under 1.5 Receptions (-125 at DraftKings)
Katz: There was a point during the season where the Chiefs had moved away from Marquez Valdes-Scantling entirely. Instead, Justin Watson was seeing increased playing time and running more routes. Recently, things have shifted back toward MVS as the WR2 ahead of Watson.
Watson’s snap share has been below 50% in each of the Chiefs’ past two playoff games. He hasn’t seen more than two targets in any of their three postseason contests, catching a total of three passes and never more than two in a game. Here’s to Watson having another game with exactly one reception.
Jake Moody Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+110 on ESPN BET)
Rolfe: I believe this is going to be a very strategic game from the two head coaches. We saw in the NFC Championship Game that Kyle Shanahan was happy to take his field goals and let Dan Campbell be aggressive. That could easily be the case here again for the 49ers, who had three field goal attempts in that game.
Jake Moody has not always been the most reliable kicker in recent, but Shanahan has not shied away from him in big moments. Last week, he missed a field goal in the first quarter, and Shanahan still went back to him twice in the third quarter despite a 24-7 deficit at the half.
Three field goals or two field goals and two extra points would be enough for the over to hit. I really like the chances of that happening against a good Chiefs defense that could force plenty of kickable opportunities for the 49ers.
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