Going into the 2019 season, a Stefon Diggs trade from the Minnesota Vikings appeared virtually unthinkable. But after a tumultuous campaign that featured a surprise playoff win but ultimately ended in disappointment, it does not appear to be such an unlikely prospect.
The Vikings need to get under the salary cap and would save $5.5 million, according to Over The Cap, by letting him go. They would, however, owe Diggs $9m in dead cap money.
After a year marked by reported internal tension over a lack of targets he received, Diggs fuelled speculation over a potential trade by removing all Vikings references from his Instagram account.
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Should the Minnesota Vikings trade Stefon Diggs?
Pro Football Network’s Offensive Share Metric (OSM) cannot confirm the veracity of such trade talk. What it can do, however, is provide an insight into whether the Vikings would be right to trade by assessing his value to their offense.
OSM uses the NFL’s NextGen Stats and a series of algorithms to calculate the extent to which a player contributed to his offense’s production by looking at the factors only he could control.
Diggs comfortably finished 2019 as the Vikings’ leading receiver, catching 63 of his 94 targets for a career-high 1,130 yards and six touchdowns. Those numbers were influenced by Thielen missing six games due to injury, but the respective OSM scores of the Vikings’ top two wideouts also suggest Diggs was the more significant influence on the offense.
Diggs earned three of the Vikings’ four highest OSM grades for skill position players. He posted elite scores in Week 8 (52.84), Week 4 (46.58), Week 7 (45.53) and Week 11 (42.06).
Though Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith led the way for Minnesota in terms of overall season grades, Diggs (33.85) had the edge over Thielen (33.14).
Given the difference in production and game time, it is something of a surprise the gap in their scores is relatively marginal.
The reason for that lies in the Vikings’ offensive philosophy. Per Sharp Football Stats, Minnesota passed the ball on just 52 percent of its offensive snaps. Only three teams threw the ball less frequently.
Diggs averaged 17.94 yards per reception but had six games in the regular season when had five or fewer targets. The Vikings’ well-documented desire to run the ball limited Diggs’ opportunities, but he was often spectacular when his chances to shine came along.
Where Diggs has long been considered one of the league’s elite is at the snap. He excels at gaining separation and engineering releases with his stem. His ability to do that was key to his 39-yard reception against the Redskins, on which he also showcased his skills in adjusting to the flight of the football.
In addition to winning with his footwork, Diggs can use his 6’0″ and 191-pound frame to get open. He did so on a 39-yard gain in the Vikings’ loss to the Bears, beating Kyle Fuller to get over the top of the Chicago defense.
Though not regarded as one of the league’s faster receivers, Diggs possesses underrated speed and made devastating use of it on a 66-yard catch and run that effectively sealed victory against the Detroit Lions. Diggs reached a top speed of 21.19 mph on that gain, according to NextGen Stats, making him the second-fastest ball-carrier of Week 7.
The combination of Diggs’ physical gifts and his well-rounded skill set allows him to produce in a remarkably efficient manner. All indications are that the Vikings’ brass realizes what they have in the former fifth-round pick and knows a Diggs trade would be a mistake.
Indeed, his level of production in 2019 should be enough to convince the coaching staff to make Diggs the focal point of an extremely talented attack.
It is a role he has clearly earned as the most gifted player on the Vikings’ offense. Yet, by replacing offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski with Gary Kubiak, head coach Mike Zimmer appears to be doubling down on a run-oriented approach.
The most likely result of that is more frustration for his receivers and, though Diggs will probably remain a Viking this offseason, Zimmer’s apparent steadfast commitment to the ground game gives the question of his star wideout’s future the potential to be a topic of intense debate again next year.