Soppe’s Week 6 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy football manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week! Note that teams on a bye include the Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins, and Vikings.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

• Spread: 49ers -3
• Total: 47.5
• 49ers implied points: 25.3
• Seahawks implied points: 22.3

Brock Purdy, QB

Purdy has just one finish better than QB14 this season because he only has one game with multiple touchdown passes, but I don’t think the profile is much different than what we saw last year from him; if this team can round into form, a return to fantasy viability is likely.

On this loaded roster, Purdy continues to rank among the very elite on a yards-per-attempt basis, and with him pacing for 367 rushing yards, there’s a level of versatility that is easy to fall in love with.

Purdy has seen his completion percentage and average depth of throw increase in each of his three meetings with the Seahawks and while Seattle’s defensive numbers on the whole look good – are we sure they are even remotely close to the level their stats suggest?

They’ve played two legitimate NFL quarterbacks (Jared Goff and Daniel Jones) since looking good against the likes of Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. I think it’s safe to place Purdy in the Goff/Jones tier at the very least (I’d argue a tier higher) and those two had zero issues in picking apart Seattle’s secondary.

• Completion percentage: 78.8%
• Passing yards: 549
• Passing touchdowns: Five

Those numbers don’t even include Goff’s touchdown reception. Counting on Purdy weekly has yet to pay off – stay patient.

Geno Smith, QB

Smith has been more productive than most realize up to this point (four top-10 finishes, doing so in a variety of ways), but there are a lot of holes to poke in his profile and I’m not remotely close to betting on him in any capacity, this week or moving forward.

Simply put, he has benefited from unsustainable volume. Through five weeks, he has an overtime game and two games in which the Seahawks were in pass-first, pass-second mode for the majority of minutes – not something you’d expect for a team with a winning record.

Through five weeks, there are 28 QBs in this 32-team league of ours who have a game with multiple touchdown passes and yet, Smith’s name (199 attempts) is not on that list despite all of the volume. He’s the only quarterback in the league with four 250-yard efforts through the air, but he could struggle to get there against a 49ers team that has held him to 205 yards through the air in three career meetings.

Across those games and 101 passing attempts, Smith’s struggle to find pay dirt has continued to be a problem – one passing touchdown. I find it unlikely that the Seahawks continue to operate at the highest pass rate over expectation in the NFL and as the volume regresses, this house of cards is at risk of crashing.

Jordan Mason, RB

All signs seem to point to Christian McCaffrey returning to action coming out of the Week 9 bye, and that means we are looking at an interesting three-game window here for Mason managers.

He’s been special, that much we know. Mason is averaging 22.4 touches per game and has a 20-yard rush in four of five games as the lead of this backfield. He’s locked into fantasy lineups and that’ll be the case until we get proof of a healthy (and featured) CMC. If you have both 49ers backs, you’re sitting pretty and in a straightforward spot – hold both.

If you only have Mason, you could try to find a McCaffrey skeptic in your league and make a move now for a player that you think will hold more value when your league is being decided. Could a Mason for De’Von Achane deal be swung? Is it worth it to try to buy low on either Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson?

Your risk tolerance will dictate your answers to those questions, but I’d suggest at least taking the temperature of your league when it comes to the future of this backfield to see how you can best maximize the value of your asset.

Kenneth Walker III, RB

He was scripted into a weird Week 5, but with seven catches, he made it work. That’s not the optimal usage (last season: 7.6 carries per catch), but the fact that he is capable of saving your bacon with a performance like that is comforting.

Even in a play-from-behind situation, Walker was on the field for a season-best 67.2% of the snaps. He’s a big play waiting to happen, and the first step to accessing that upside is being on the field. Walker deserves to be labeled as a top-15 play as long as he’s healthy, a box he currently checks.

Zach Charbonnet, RB

Charbonnet has seen 13 targets across Walker’s three games this season, enough of a role in PPR formats for those in desperation mode, That said, he doesn’t have more than 15 rushing yards in a Walker start this season, checking in at a 33-41% snap share in all of those contests.

I don’t think there’s much of a path to stand-alone value for Charbonnet, but he ranks among the five most valuable handcuffs and that requires he be rostered in all formats.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR

I had Brandon Aiyuk labeled as the clear WR1 in this offense over the summer and I’m back at that point after he showed signs of life last week. That’s not to say that Samuel will be a forgotten piece, but with George Kittle’s usage changing (keep reading for more on that), I certainly have him ranked as the most risky option on this roster.

This week, Samuel is a low-end WR2 for me. His usage as a weapon gives him the ability to succeed in any matchup, but his in the slot much more often than Aiyuk these days (32.9% of his snaps compared to 14.3% for his partner in crime) and that is where the ‘Hawks secondary thrives. The home team owns the best EPA mark against slot receivers this season and we know the floor for Samuel is just as damaging as his ceiling is helpful.

So far this season, Samuel is fantasy’s WR31 (12.5 PPG, behind a trio of receivers from the New York area in Allen Lazard, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Khalil Shakir because … of course). He’ll rank higher than that for me on a weekly basis, but that’s the result of his big weeks being matchup winners. I wouldn’t blink if you wanted to trade him after his net big game and avoid this headache moving forward.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR

The NFL preseason used to be four weeks long and with a missed summer, is it possible that the warm-up month was all Aiyuk needed to get right?

He looked like his dominant self last week in an admittedly soft matchup against the Cardinals – I think this version is here to stay and I have him ranked as a top-15 receiver moving forward. Purdy’s first completion last week was a 53-yarder to Aiyuk and his WR1 cleared 90 receiving yards before any other 49ers had multiple catches.

Aiyuk is my WR9 this week even in a less than ideal matchup – this is the neighborhood he’s back in.

Jauan Jennings, WR

I mentioned Seattle’s excellence against the slot this season and while Samuel is there more often than Aiyuk, it was where Jennings spent the majority of his time last weekend with all three active (55.6% of his snaps). When you consider that San Francisco’s Big 3 (Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle) all played north of 80% of the snaps and Jennings didn’t reach 60%, any semblance of a tough matchup makes this fragile profile impossible to trust.

I’m not cutting ties with Jennings yet, but it wouldn’t shock me if his name is on the roster chopping block sooner rather than later.

DK Metcalf, WR

I wish that I could tell you that the inconsistencies are going to change, but this is the life of a receiver with an average NFL quarterback. In five weeks, Metcalf has cleared 140 air yards twice and checked in under 65 twice – he’s clearly the WR1 in this offense and deserving of lineup-lock status, but I find myself favoring receivers like Aiyuk and Jayden Reed moving forward due to my confidence in their QB situations.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR

On the bright side, JSN has seen three end-zone targets over the past two weeks and if that becomes usage that we can count on, the second-year receiver adds a layer to his fantasy profile that is appealing.

Outside of an uptick in scoring equity, the deep dive on Smith-Njigba doesn’t look great. He has averaged under a yard per route run in consecutive games and has seen his rate decline in three straight games.

He’s strictly a slot option in this offense and that should keep his involvement at a reasonable level on a consistent basis, but the lack of a ceiling is going to keep him outside of my WR2 tier most weeks.

At the moment, he sits as my WR28 for Week 6, ranking him in the same range as other talented options that are WR2 on their own roster (Darnell Mooney and Jameson Williams).

Tyler Lockett, WR

The veteran receiver is slowly being phased out of this offense. Not in terms of opportunities (yet), he’s seen at least six targets in four of five games, but in that, he is no longer that first look at any level.

Depending on the alignment, he can occupy the slot or look to run deep, but he’s not doing either at the rate that we’ve become accustomed to and that has landed him as fantasy’s WR49 through five weeks. For context, that ranks him behind Tre Tucker.

It’s a tough sentence to type, but Lockett is closer to cuttable than startable for me in average-sized leagues.

George Kittle, TE

Kittle has scored three consecutive games, owning a nice red-zone role to go alongside an increasingly stable skill set (his aDOT is down 26.3% from last season). Entering the season, week-over-week consistency was the knock on Kittle, but this version of him profiles as fantasy-friendly as anything we’ve seen.

The race for TE1 honors in my rest-of-season rankings is one that no one seemingly wants to win – Kittle has as good a shot as any and with five scores over his past four Seahawk games, your week has a good chance to start off with a bang.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Chicago Bears

• Spread: Bears -2
• Total: 43
• Jaguars implied points: 20.5
• Bears implied points: 22.5

Trevor Lawrence, QB

Lawrence looked great last week in the win over the Colts (28-of-34 for 372 yards and a pair of touchdowns) and while the long touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr. is the highlight that is most posted, that was the least impressive of the outing in my opinion.

We know that Lawrence has the “arm talent” to win on those big plays, but that’s not where fantasy stability is gained. Against Indy last week, he posted his lowest average depth of throw for the season and that allowed him to flirt with a ceiling performance.

The other way QBs work their way into fantasy lineups is via mobility, something that we used to love from Lawrence. Not in a Lamar Jackson type of way, but in a peak Aaron Rodgers or current Brock Purdy/Geno Smith type of way.

That part of his profile seems to be gone (under 10 rushing yards in four of five games this season) and that’s what is preventing him from trending toward a point in the ranks where I’m willing to explore streaming him. Since the middle of last season, the Bears have had a top-five pass defense in terms of yards per attempt, first downs per pass, interception rate, and passer rating – this isn’t the matchup to target for a fringe (at best) fantasy QB.

Lament the Lawrence numbers from Week 5 that you didn’t get if you’d like, but I’d very much caution against chasing them. The other QB in this game who showed well for himself last week, on the other hand …

Caleb Williams, QB

If you’re streaming the position for Week 6, Williams needs to be on your radar for two reasons: 1) development and 2) short-term outlook.

We know that not all rookies acclimate to the professional game at the same rate. That’s true for every position of every sport, but especially the most valuable singular spot in North American sports.

Williams against the blitz:

Weeks 1-2: 47.1% completion rate, zero touchdowns, one interception
Weeks 3-5: 75% completion rate, three touchdowns, zero interceptions

Williams was the first overall pick in April for a reason and we are starting to see some of those flashes, something that some managers aren’t willing to admit due to the excellence of Jayden Daniels in Washington.

He’s revving the engine to his fantasy stock and we could see him push the gas to the floor over the next month. Williams faces a Jags team this weekend that allows the fifth most yards per pass and the fourth-highest percentage of opponent yards to be gained through the air (73.2%) before going on bye in Week 7. The off week is a pain, but if he has a strong performance this weekend, he’ll be worth holding – Chicago gets Washington and Arizona in Weeks 8-9.

I’m adding Williams in leagues where I have a glaring weakness anywhere, not just the quarterback position. If he can marry his recent development with a plus matchup in London, you might be afforded the option to sell him for a Flex-worthy piece to a QB-needy manager who is in a state of desperation. If not, you hold him and wait for another good spot in Week 8 and try the same thing.

I don’t think Williams will be a QB1 in standard-sized leagues moving forward, but on a per-game basis for the next month, it’s very much on the table. If you get ahead of your league and stash him now, even if you don’t “need” a quarterback, you can purchase a stock now and sell it for a profit in short order.

I’m not a financial expert, but that’s how you turn a profit. If you can execute essentially a sign-and-trade of Williams, you stand to trim the fat on your roster as we cross the midway point of the fantasy season.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB

Etienne’s hold on the lead role in Jacksonville is loosening with each week, but he did out-target Tank Bigsby 7-1 last week and that is a skill that will keep him on the field for the Jags and in lineup consideration for fantasy managers.

Etienne’s snap shares:

• Week 3 at Buffalo Bills: 72.1%
• Week 4 at Houston Texans: 51.7%
• Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 38.6%

That said, the upside isn’t nearly what we assumed it would be this summer. Jacksonville’s offensive struggles play into that, but Etienne hasn’t exactly lived up to his part of the bargain (13.6% fantasy production below expectation). He’s yet to finish a week better than RB20 this season, a trend he has a chance to break against the sixth-worst defense in terms of running back yards gained before contact this season.

Etienne’s stock is greater if the Jags can keep this game close, something they have a chance to do if this passing game can build on what they showed last week.

Tank Bigsby, RB

Bigsby dismantled the Indianapolis Colts (13-101-2) to get Jacksonville their first win of the season last week, and he very much looked the part. The 65-yard touchdown run was the most valuable of his plays, but Bigsby’s first score was the more impressive one — a 19-yarder that saw a dozen yards come after contact.

Some “yards after contact” stats can be misleading as not all contact is created equal. On this score, Bigsby looked like the bully on the playground who hit puberty a few years early. We haven’t seen Isiah Pacheco run the ball for a few weeks, but it sort of looked like that and proves that Bigsby’s role is here to stay, if not grow.

In total, Bigsby has 34 carries for 273 yards this season. It should go without saying that 8.0 yards per carry isn’t going to increase, but why can’t he carve out a role of 10-12 touches per week?

If Trevor Lawrence’s strong Week 5 showing proves to be the new expectation as opposed to an outlier, that sort of role in this offense is going to put Bigsby on Flex radars as we move toward Halloween.

I’m adding him in all formats where I can, though he won’t be ranked as a Flex option for me in the short term, and that includes this week against a stingy Bears defense that is the fifth-best red-zone unit in the NFL.

D’Andre Swift, RB

Swift took a screen pass 42 yards down to the two-yard line and ended up finishing off the drive with a TD plunge as a part of a monster first half (119 yards and the short touchdown). There are no “sure” things at the running back position these days, but Swift has been on the field for exactly two-thirds of Chicago’s snaps in three of their past four games, a role that is enough to land him RB2 status for me this week.

The Jaguars own the third-worst red-zone defense in the NFL this season, giving Swift a real chance to run for a score in a third straight game. He’s posted consecutive top-five finishes this season, totaling 166 rush yards with a pair of scores along with nine catches on nine targets for 119 yards in the process. We’ve been excited about his potential in the past and I’m almost sucked all the way back in.

If Williams is going to develop, the ground game is going to play a big role and Swift is driving that ship.

Roschon Johnson, RB

Johnson punched in a pair of short scores last week, one coming after a Swift TD was yanked off the board due to an illegal shift. He’s carving out a role that could turn into a Flex-worthy one with time if this offense continues to move in the right direction.

For the time being, I’m not going that far and still have the second-year back ranked outside of my top 40. The touch ceiling is a low one (he’s yet to play 40% of the snaps in a game this season) and this offense still lacks consistency, but Johnson certainly deserves to be rostered at this point.

Christian Kirk, WR

Is Kirk poised for a few Tyler Lockett seasons? Not the current version of Seattle’s receiver, the versatile option of yesteryear that was capable of winning at every level and developed a special connection with his QB that allowed him to thrive.

I’m not there yet with this Lawrence/Kirk tandem, but I’m open to the idea. The slot specialist was hit on a 61-yard bomb last week with Lawrence uncorking a Russell Wilson-esque dime that Kirk had no choice but to catch.

Kirk’s slot rate (78%) is flirting with a career-high, but so is his aDOT, two statistics that rarely work in tandem like that. He has been fantasy football’s WR17 over the past three weeks (total PPR points), a level of production that I believe is reasonably stable for the remainder of the season.

The Bears have an interesting profile when it comes to defending the slot – bend but don’t break. They’ve allowed opponents to complete 78.3% of their passes to the slot this season (third highest) but own the second-lowest passer rating on those throws.

Kirk is a low-end WR in this tough matchup and that is reflective of how I view the receiver room in Jacksonville. I think Brian Thomas Jr. scores more points moving forward than Kirk, but I also think his range of outcomes weekly is greater and in a matchup like this, he is the one who I downgrade further.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR

Thomas was on my list of value plays this summer and even I wasn’t projecting anything close to what we’ve seen thus far, not right out of the gate anyway.

Brian Thomas Jr.

(thread) pic.twitter.com/hJOabDQo0V

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)

He scored from 85 yards out last week and has now found the end zone in three of five games to open his career. He ranks as WR12 through five weeks this season (ahead of CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans) and his development as a target earner is trending me toward buying this level of production being here to stay.

On-field target share:

• Week 2: 13.3%
• Week 3: 22,5%
• Week 4: 33.3%
• Week 5: 29.6%

Thomas is cashing in on the promise we all assigned to Calvin Ridley last season and it looks good on him. Only once has a receiver scored 15 PPR points against the Bears this season (Nico Collins, Week 2), and like I said in the Kirk write-up, BTJ’s profile is the one at a little more risk due to the high variance targets.

I’m Flexing him this week with the thought that the big play could be difficult to rip off in this spot – he’ll be back in my WR2 tier in game 2 of this London double header next week when the Patriots come to town.

DJ Moore, WR

I mentioned the growth of Williams over this first month of his career and Moore is the primary beneficiary. As the clear-cut WR1 in this offense, Moore hauled in passes of 23, 30 (touchdown), and 34 (touchdowns) in the first half last week, something that you don’t see too often.

DJ Moore is the 7th player since 2000 with multiple 30+ yard TD catches in a game from a rookie QB.

He joins Robbie Chosen (2018, also in Week 5) as the only ones on that list to do it twice in the first half@ChicagoBears #FantasyFootball

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)

This matchup should not scare you as the Jags allow the fourth-highest opponent passer rating when throwing to the perimeter. Since joining the Bears, the only players with more yards (1,229) and a higher production over expectation grade (+16.8%) when on the perimeter than Moore are Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins.

Jacksonville is blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the league and that figures to allow the route-running savant that Moore is to thrive. You’re starting him weekly as it is and I think you can do so with more confidence in this week than most.

Keenan Allen, WR

If Allen’s name didn’t carry with it the strong résumé and productive 2023 season, would he still be rostered?

I’m sorry, that wasn’t a question. He wouldn’t be. He’s playing with a project quarterback and doesn’t yet have a top-50 finish on his ledger for the season (Parris Campbell, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Mack Hollins are on the list of WRs with a top-50 finish this season).

He’s averaging just over four yards per target and just under one PPR point per target – there’s nothing in his profile that suggests that he is close to the Flex discussion and if you wanted to move on for a player with more single opportunity upside, I can’t say that I’d blame you.

Rome Odunze, WR

I don’t mind if you want to keep an eye on an explosive talent like Odunze, understanding that development isn’t linear and we’ve seen plenty of high-pedigree receivers peak down the stretch, but I think you can afford to do it from a distance at this point.

I’m not entirely confident in my evaluation of Odunze through five games because I’m not sure that the Bears are. After posting a 12.5 aDOT in Week 2, he was almost exclusively as a deep threat for the next two games (14 targets with a 21.5 aDOT). I adjusted my projection to account for this and he promptly registered a 5.5 aDOT on six looks last weekend against the Panthers.

I think there’s a fantasy asset here, I’m just not sure this is the optimal situation for him to realize that potential as a rookie. I’m monitoring, not committing.

Evan Engram, TE

After appearing in every game through his first two seasons with the Jaguars (187 catches across those 34 games), Engram has now sat out three straight games with a nagging hamstring injury. These soft-tissue injuries are never fun to manage, and that’s even more true when we’re talking about a 30-year-old.

The Jaguars’ offense obviously looks different than it did last season when their featured TE recorded the second-most receptions in a season by a tight end in NFL history. We saw signs of that in the season opener, as Engram’s slot rate was down from 46.2% last season to 28.6%.

Of course, that’s a tiny sample, one that only gives a glimpse at the plan moving forward. If that is, in fact, the case, Engram’s ceiling and floor would fall well short of what we saw in 2023 on a weekly basis.

That said, he still profiles as a safe enough option at the position to be considered a weekly starter once deemed healthy.

Cole Kmet, TE

Kmet caught three of four targets on Sunday, continuing his run of efficiency this season (21 catches on 24 targets), and this time, he added some upside (57 yards, including a 26-yarder).

There just isn’t a large enough role available for Kmet to produce on a consistent basis. Chicago’s big three receivers saw 20 of 28 targets in the win over the Panthers.

There will be weeks where Kmet is a viable option like this, but the risk is greater than the reward — even at a position where any signs of life are all we ask for.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Packers -5.5
• Total: 49.5
• Cardinals implied points: 22
• Packers implied points: 27.5

Kyler Murray, QB

Murray’s profile looked dynamic on paper entering this season and nothing we’ve seen through five weeks has suggested otherwise. The connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. is a work in progress (I have no doubt that the best is yet to come) and while we see that duo develop, Murray is maintaining his status as a strong fantasy option with 45+ rushing yards in four of five games thus far.

So far, Murray is on a career pace in pressured passer rating and that, to me, highlights just how high the ceiling is – what are defenses supposed to do? If they back off the line of scrimmage, Arizona has a pair of playmakers that can win routes on a consistent basis, and if they bring the heat, they run the risk of Murray escaping out the backdoor or burning them with his arm.

There aren’t many quarterbacks I prefer to Murray this week, or this season for that matter. That said …

Jordan Love, QB

I think it’s safe to say that Love is back. He scored 35 fantasy points over a four-quarter stretch bridging Week 4-5, a production level that hints at the ceiling we could see this weekend against the third-worst yards per pass defense in the league.

Including the playoffs, Love has thrown multiple touchdown passes in nine straight games, and when you consider that four of five QBs to face the Cardinals this season have completed north of 70% of their passes, this matchup is where upside and efficiency project to collide.

Love is a safe bet to finish as a top-10 signal caller this week in all formats and if Arizona can remain competitive, the upside ranks among the elite. Personally, I think we see that and that is why I have Green Bay’s QB penciled in as the third most valuable asset at the position this week.

James Conner, RB

At a position that has so much turnover on a weekly basis, let alone annually, Conner just continues to churn out productive weeks. The veteran has been a top-20 running back in four of five weeks this season and while the upside isn’t special (even with all of that success, he’s just RB15 for the season), I’m more than happy to take consistent production to the bank.

The Packers have allowed the fourth most yards per carry after contact to running backs through five weeks, a potentially fatal flaw against a straight-line runner line Conner. He’s an RB1 for me this week, and he’s not the only one in this game …

Josh Jacobs, RB

If the Packers elect to play defense with their offense, Jacobs is a good bet to repeat what he did last week in a game Green Bay controlled throughout (94 yards and a touchdown). My concerns around Jacobs are rooted in efficiency and I stand by them, but when his team is favored and facing an offense that can strike quickly, those worries are muted a bit.

For the first time this season, Jacobs is ranked as a top-10 play for me this week – his elevated floor in an offense that I trust is a basic profile that very few have access to.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR

The number of highlight plays for Harrison outweighs his production thus far – the elite prospect has just one finish inside of the 20 most productive fantasy receivers this season.

The on-field target share has consistently been north of 20% and that gives me optimism that stability is a possibility this season, especially with the Cardinals exploring more slot usage last week (season-high 25% of his snaps).

The ups and downs are going to be there, but I expect Harrison managers to be happy when all is said and done. This game has every chance to shoot out and with the Packers ranking as a bottom 10 defense in terms of yards per completion, air yards per throw, and touchdown pass rate, Harrison should be locked into all lineups.

This Green Bay defense is an aggressive one and while that has paid dividends thus far by way of impressive turnover numbers, that also makes them susceptible to big plays, something I think we very much could see from Harrison in this spot.

Michael Wilson, WR

With at least six targets in back-to-back-to-back games in a role that is seeing his aDOT steadily increase, Wilson is working his way into the weekly Flex discussion. I worry about the stability of his targets if/when Trey McBride gets on track, as he then falls to third in the hierarchy of an offense that will run the ball plenty, but in the short-term, the second-year receiver deserves to be considered as a top-40 player at the position.

A big receiver with high-end potential? Wilson’s profile sounds awfully similar to that of a few Packer receivers – this is an easy game to target for DFS stacks and bettors who enjoy a nice high-scoring affair.

Jayden Reed, WR

If you want to see confidence in a single player, watch this play on repeat. Or listen to Tony Romo on the call of it: “Jim, that is a 10 outta 10”.

JORDAN LOVE. JAYDEN REED.

📺: #GBvsLAR on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/gCdw5h1Ma1

— NFL (@NFL)

In just a month’s time, Reed has made it clear that this isn’t a deep receiver room that could see targets go anywhere in a given week – it’s a deep depth chart in the battle for the WR2 role in this offense.

Reed is averaging 12.7 PPR PPG from the slot this season, ranking him second among receivers (Chris Godwin) and putting him in position to produce on a weekly basis. His breakout down the stretch of last season very much mirrored that of Amon-Ra St. Brown and with the continued breakout, we might very well have three of the top 10 receivers the rest of the way in the NFC North.

Amon-Ra’s breakout at the end of his rookie season (Weeks 13-18):

*26.6% points over expectation, 2.07 FP/tar, 65% slot

Jayden Reed down the stretch of his rookie season (Weeks 11-18):

*33.7% points over expectation, 1.99 FP/tar, 66% slot#FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/US9KPRJHKk

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)

Dontayvion Wicks, WR

With Christian Watson (ankle) sidelined and Romeo Doubs (suspension) disgruntled, Wicks was popular in fantasy analyst circles last week and we were right.

Sort of.

As long as you ignore the final box score.

Even with a gutted receiving core, Wicks finished Week 5 fourth on the team in receiving yards. The production wasn’t pretty, but he led the team in target (seven) and had 27 more air yards than any of his teammates. Sometimes the operation can be a success and the patient still dies on the table.

That was the case last week.

I’m willing to go back to the well and trust this process. Arizona is a below-average defense in most respects, but especially when it comes to the deep ball (completion percentage and yards per attempt).

With an implied total pushing 28 points, I think Love could support at least two pass-catchers. If we take Reed for granted, that means that Tucker Kraft, Wicks, or Romeo Doubs can come through. My money is on Wicks, but there is just as much risk as reward.

Wicks’s profile isn’t that dissimilar to that of Rashid Shaheed, but with Derek Carr sidelined, I have Green Bay’s athlete ranked higher.

Romeo Doubs, WR

Week 5 was a messy one for Doubs, one that ultimately ended up in a one-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the team. Reports suggested that he was skipping practices as a protest of his role in Green Bay’s offense, an odd timing for such actions, given the issue to Watson and thus, theoretically, elevating him up the target hierarchy.

A locked-in version of Doubs can be a fantasy asset, as he has proven plenty capable of winning around the goal line. For his career, 28.9% of Doubs’ PPR fantasy points have come courtesy of touchdown receptions, a rate that gives him potential in any matchup but also introduces a low floor if he’s kept out of the paint.

With just one career game of 80+ receiving yards, a disgruntled Doubs does not need to be a part of your Flex debates.

This is a developing situation. If there is a receiver with a defined role in an above-average offense on your wire, go ahead and make the move. If not, stashing Doubs is an option, as he’s a talented player, and we don’t yet know the next turn that this story will take. The Cardinals allow the highest perimeter completion percentage in the league (78.4%) and Doubs, in Weeks 1-4, was responsible for 43.5% of Green Bay’s receptions out wide.

Trey McBride, TE

A little bit of a learning curve was to be expected this season for McBride. Even if you don’t want to admit it. With a healthy quarterback and an alpha receiver in town, copy-pasting a strong 2023 from the jump in 2024 was overly aggressive.

Or was it?

It was to open the season, but the overall profile is shaping up for McBride to potentially be a league winner down the stretch for a second straight season. He has yet to drop a pass this season and has assumed an eerily similar role when you look at usage rates like on-field target share and percentage of routes run from the slot.

The difference is a significant decline in catch rate (66.7% this season, down from 76.4% in 2023) and that is to blame for him having only one finish this season better than TE10.

Relax. McBride has seen his aDOT increase by 25.8% this season and that is naturally going to require some reps to perfect. The Packers allow the 10th most yards per completion this season and could serve as a launching point for him to make a push for the top TE in our game moving forward.

Tucker Kraft, TE

When the articles are published this winter about which players were most common on championship rosters, Kraft could well be mentioned due to the value gained via free agency at a brutal position that is giving everybody problems.

Weeks 4-5:

• 10 catches
• 141 yards
• Three touchdowns

He’s reached 50 receiving yards while catching a touchdown in both of those contests, making him the first TE with such a streak in 2024. Asking Kraft to continue to produce at that rate is a bit optimistic, but it’s clear that this team likes his versatility and with the receiver depth chart thinning out, we are looking at a top-10 option at the position this week and for the remainder of the season.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

• Spread: Colts -1
• Total: 42.5
• Colts implied points: 21.8
• Titans implied points: 20.8

Anthony Richardson, QB

After a confusing set of events in Week 4 that resulted in Richardson exiting the game, returning shortly thereafter only to execute a designed red-zone run and get hit hard again, the Colts pivoted on Saturday, adjusting his injury designation from questionable to doubtful, ultimately resulting in him missing the 14th game of his young career (not to mention three early exits).

It’s a different animal, but Malik Willis and the Packers did run over these Titans in Week 3 (Willis led the team with 73 yards and a touchdown as they racked up 188 yards). In theory, that should pave the way for Richardson’s versatility to own elite upside in this matchup, but are we sure he plays?

Are we sure that Indy’s coaching staff isn’t going to approach game planning differently in an effort to keep their presumed franchise centerpiece on the field?

Those are questions that will be answered with time. For now, we have to speculate.

The Colts made a point of it this offseason in saying that they weren’t going to ask Richardson to stop doing what makes him special. That sounds great in July, but in October after a DNP, I find it hard to believe there isn’t at least some second-guessing.

Richardson won’t crack my top 12 this week if he is named the starter, something that is in part due to pocket passers in good spots to flirt with their ceiling outcomes (the Giants host Joe Burrow while Kirk Cousins has an extended week to scheme against the Panthers).

Joe Flacco, QB

As it turns out, franchises have two choices at the quarterback position – either you mortgage your future and spend upwards of half a billion dollars on someone you view as the future or you pick up a cast-off veteran.

Patrick Mahomes falls in that first bucket and is having success for the Chiefs, while Flacco and Andy Dalton have proven the value of stability. After last week (359 passing yards and three scores), we are now up to seven straight appearances for Joe Cool and, by way of a 21-yard scramble, the TB12 brand might have their next spokesman whenever Flacco decides to hang up his cleats.

If he were to be named the starter for Week 6, I’d be excited to watch him execute but not enough to plug him into one-QB rosters. The Titans, coming off their bye, give up a league-low 5.7 yards per pass and own the second-best third-down defense in the league.

Assuming that Jonathan Taylor sits out, there is a value case to be made on sheer volume and reliability, but that’s something I’d be more likely to explore in a DFS setting where I am being rewarded for paying down at the position.

Will Levis, QB

An AC sprain in his throwing shoulder during Week 4’s win on Monday night against the Dolphins resulted in Levis exiting. Reporting out of Tennessee seems to be optimistic and that’s a plus for the skill position players on this team, but Levis himself shouldn’t matter to you in any single QB format.

The second-year QB has yet to finish better than QB20 this season, though he has completed 72.7% of his passes after an ugly season debut in Chicago.

Jonathan Taylor, RB

Taylor suffered a high ankle injury in Week 4, and it resulted in him sitting last season, his 14th missed game since the start of the 2022 season. He was one of just four running backs across the NFL to finish as a top-16 producer at the position in Weeks 2, 3, and 4 (Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Jahmyr Gibbs), ripping off a 20+ yard run and a 10+ yard reception in each of those contests.

Taylor’s stable role and supporting cast again have him identified as one of the best and safest options in our game when he is on the field. Through four games this season, his production over expectation is right where you’d expect it, and his yards gained rate (84.7% of his carries) is tracking for a career-best.

Sadly, we have seen these injuries sideline Taylor for extended periods of time before, and there’s a chance this injury is no different. Indianapolis doesn’t go on bye until Week 14, meaning that he will have to work through this injury without the benefit of an off week.

Will the Colts look to take it easy with their star back over the next two weeks (they host the banged-up Dolphins in Week 7) and hope to have Taylor back in the mix for a brutal phase of their schedule (Weeks 8-12: Texans-Vikings-Bills-Jets-Lions)?

At the moment, that sounds like it might be a best-case scenario.

Trey Sermon, RB

Sermon played 58% of the snaps in Week 5 and impressed in the passing game with six catches, though those receptions did very little (seventh on the team in receiving yards). The backfield was leaned upon heavily by Joe Flacco last week and if the veteran is again under center, Sermon would profile as a fine RB2.

His stock would take a hit if Richardson assumes the starting role under center – the check-down passes would evaporate and any short-yardage opportunities would be more likely to go to the supersized QB (Tennessee owns a top-10 red-zone defense). Sermon is the backup to roster, though calling him a Taylor handcuff is a bit disingenuous, as his role looks nothing like the one vacated by the former All-Pro.

Tyler Goodson, RB

The Colts didn’t operate any two-RB sets last week and that left 42% of the snaps available for Goodson last week against the Jags. He worked into an eight-touch role, one that isn’t fantasy viable, but with two of those opportunities netting over 15 yards, there’s a path to an increase in work.

I don’t mind rostering if you’re a Taylor manager and want to protect yourself that way, but I don’t see him getting enough touches this week to finish in the top 40 at the position.

Tony Pollard, RB

Pollard has been a top-20 producer in three of four games this season and he’s got a decent chance to continue that momentum given that he has played over 61% of Tennessee’s offensive snaps in every game this season.

That said, the Colts do own the fourth-best run defense, and Tyjae Spears isn’t going away. Pollard’s profile is far from perfect, but he is a top-20 option for me this week, ranking ahead of all backs that play for Florida-based teams.

Tyjae Spears, RB

The Colts face a league-high 34.8 rush attempts per game and that’s encouraging for an RB who is seeing his snap share gradually creep up (31.7% snaps in Week 2, 35.8% in Week 3, and 40.3% in Week 4 before the bye).

Spears has shown some upside in his young career and that’s enough to justify keeping him rostered, but he’s a ways away from unable right now.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR

Pittman wasn’t a top-50 performer at the position in any of the first three weeks this season, but he’s been a top-24 WR in consecutive games. His skill set seems to mesh with just about every quarterback not named Anthony Richardson.

The bulk of his production over the past two weeks has come courtesy of Flacco and, in his last matchup against these Titans, Pittman earned a 39% target share with Gardner Minshew II under center.

We saw some signs of development in terms of his connection with Richardson just before the QB got banged up in Week 4 and that promise is why I’m comfortable in ranking him as a starter, regardless of who is under center. I’ll admit that the elevated floor that comes with Flacco makes that my optimal path for Pittman, but I think you’re playing him regardless.

Alec Pierce, WR

Who says he needs the aggression of Richardson to succeed?

Pierce hauled in 45+ yard receptions on consecutive drives last week from Flacco, including a 65-yard touchdown that knotted the game with 2:40 left on the clock.

Do you believe more in Pierce or math?

Leaving a week with 22.4 PPR fantasy points is enough to put a smile on your face, but doing so on a 6.7% target share feels like stealing. We’ve yet to see Pierce earn targets on a consistent basis, and that makes him more of a fade than a play for me, even with five weeks of strong production on his 2024 résumé.

The fact that the Titans create pressure at the third lowest rate in the league can be taken one of two ways – either you believe that it allows Pierce time to run down the field, or you believe that it allows the Titans to allocate more resources to take away the chunk play.

There’s certainly an upside that needs to be considered, but the low floor has Pierce sitting as third among Colt receivers both this week and for the remainder of the season.

Josh Downs, WR

Downs has been targeted on 29.4% of Flacco’s throws this season and profiles as a strong PPR Flex as long as he is under center. The ankle injury cost him time early in September, thus leaving us without a clear picture of how his role works in a Richardson-led offense.

As it stands, Downs is WR22 on a per-game basis this season. If Richardson is announced the starter, Downs will settle outside of my top 30, in the same range as both Titan receivers, but if this is again the Flacco show, he’ll be bumped half a dozen spots and profile as a fine Flex play in PPR formats.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR

Hopkins is the Titan receiver I like most this week, but that’s not exactly glowing praise as he remains outside of my top 30 at the position. Levis started once against the Colts last season and he funneled 36.4% of his passes in Hopkins’ direction, something that I could see repeating given that this team had the bye week to break down this matchup.

Indianapolis owns the lowest three-and-out rate in the league (18.2% of drives), giving this Tennessee offense the rare opportunity to stay on the field. With this being one of the more sporadic pass games in the league, Hopkins is never going to be a must-start in my rankings, but if you’re buying that there is gas left in his tank, this is as good a spot as any.

Calvin Ridley, WR

The Colts allow the second most yards per pass this season and that opens the door for Ridley to produce his second top-50 week of the season, but with just two catches for 14 yards total in the two weeks before the Week 5 bye, we are very much in an “I need to see it before forecasting it” spot with the former Jaguar.

Spike weeks defined Ridley’s 2023 campaign and that could well be the case of 2024 as well. I don’t see a world in which you’re ever going to feel good about starting him in a season-long format, but I’d listen if you wanted to chase the ceiling potential in a DFS GPP given the favorable matchup off of a bye week.

Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots

• Spread: Texans -7
• Total: 37.5
• Texans implied points: 22.3
• Patriots implied points: 15.3

C.J. Stroud, QB

Stroud completed his first five passes last week in the win over Buffalo, racking up 109 yards and a touchdown in the process. Things were looking good until Nico Collins, after running past the entire secondary on a 67-yard score, was seen getting medical attention on the sidelines.

The top receiver in the NFL didn’t return as a result of a hamstring injury and Adam Schefter reported on Monday that the team adjusted his designation from “day-to-day” to “week-to-week”.

That’s not ideal. This Houston offense is plenty talented, but it is worth noting that Stroud turned 33 passes the rest of the way on Sunday into 6.9 fantasy points as a passer after the departure of his WR1.

The Patriots’ defense entered 2024 with high expectations, but they’ve been more ordinary than anything. They are currently the sixth-worst third-down defense in the league and if the Texans are extending drives, they are eventually going to put points on the board.

The (likely) absence of Collins impacts my ranking of Stroud this week more than the matchup. He’s still a top-10 QB for me this week and a starter in most formats – he’d be flirting with the top five if Collins’ doubtful tag were to be adjusted.

Drake Maye, QB

Per our Week 6 Insights packet (check it out every Tuesday for betting, fantasy, and “real life” notes on every team for the upcoming week): At his current pace in both attempts per game and touchdown rate, Jacoby Brissett would need this season to be extended to 138 games for him to break Peyton Manning’s single-season touchdown record (55).

It was only a matter of time before Maye took over, and his game is much more built for our game. That’s not to say that the Patriots are suddenly a fantasy target, but stashing the involved options on this offense (Ja’Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas, and Hunter Henry) is a reasonable dice roll.

“If everything you do is wrong, then the opposite has to be right.”

New England’s offense is a version of the old Seinfeld adage. For five weeks, the Patriots offense has been “wrong,” making a change “right.”

At the very least, it’s not known to be wrong, and that’s a step in the right direction. I’d speculate on those three pass catchers if they are available in your league, understanding that you are assured of nothing. It’s a process play and wanting to invest cheaply in a situation that lacks clarity.

Joe Mixon, RB

This nagging ankle injury has now resulted in as many missed games for Mixon in succession as he sat over the previous two seasons combined (three). As a 28-year-old RB with over 2,000 NFL touches on his body, Mixon’s profile carried health risk this summer — you knew what you were getting into.

Houston’s dropback percentage in one-score games:

• Weeks 1-2: 57.6% (19th)
• Weeks 3-4: 69.1% (fourth)

Every team in the league played two games in both of those windows, so while the sample size isn’t huge, at least it’s the same for all involved. In the two weeks in which Mixon was active, Houston leaned into the ground game, something that is good to see when it comes to the long-term value of their RB1.

If the team with Mixon is leaking oil, buying low is something I’d strongly consider if you’re in a decent position in the standings. Could you land Mixon in a deal centered around J.K. Dobbins? Something like that would have my interest as you look to build a winner when all of the chips are in the middle of the table.

Cam Akers, RB

Akers, over Dare Ogunbowale, is a cleaner replacement for Mixon in terms of both role and volume. He profiles as a valuable addition to an offense we all believe has significant potential.

shoutout the 11.7% of people who started Cam Akers pic.twitter.com/ihODf1Vduh

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy)

The downside of Akers, however, is multifaceted. He, of course, has his own health history, and that caps how high I can responsibly push Akers’ touch projection, regardless of his standing on the depth chart.

Even if you are willing to take Akers’ health for granted in the short term, there’s a production component that needs to be considered.

Not once in his NFL career has Akers finished with a positive production over expectation rate, something that is fueled by 20.9% of his career carries failing to gain yardage. Everything needs to go right for him to return RB2 value, especially when you consider his limitations in the passing game for an offense that wants to operate through the air.

For his career, Akers has recorded 10.4 carries per reception, a damning rate in this C.J. Stroud-led offense. Through five weeks, the Texans rank ninth in pass game EPA and 29th in rush EPA. This is an offense that is likely to lean into its strengths, and with Mixon sidelined, there is no question as to what portion of the offense they trust most.

You can consider Akers as a low-end RB2, much like other running backs in uneasy situations like Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. HOU), Zack Moss (at NYG), and Rachaad White (at NO).

Dare Ogunbowale, RB

For his career, 38% of Ogunbowale’s touches have come through the air. Those catches have accounted for 59.5% of his yards. That said, Houston’s offense has shifted its play-calling sans Mixon to an aggressive aerial approach, making this role more appealing than it sounds.

The concern in relying on the passing game (something that Ogunbowale is likely to do after a 15-carry, 30-yard showing against the Bills last week) is pretty straightforward — the Texans paid up to secure a receiving trio that ranks among the most potent in the league.

Through five weeks, Nico Collins has missed the majority of a game, and Tank Dell has a full DNP. Even with those bruises, those two — along with Stefon Diggs — have accounted for 58.8% of targets in Houston this season. I don’t have a doubt that the pass-catcher role is Ogunbowale’s to win, but the value of that role is fair to question.

Ogunbowale ranks in the Justice Hill (vs. WAS) range of secondary back for me — a role that has PPR potential if everything runs perfectly.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB

Stevenson fumbled in each of the first four weeks this season and was relieved of his starting duties as a result. He finished Week 5 with 45.5% snap share (Antonio Gibson: 47.3%), a usage rate that will result in neither back returning value on a consistent basis.

That said, Stevenson was able to rip off a 33-yard score last week (his first touch gaining more than 18 yards this season), earning his third top-12 finish of the season.

I expect Stevenson to assume the lead role this week and that lands him just inside of my top 25 at the position. He’s not an exciting option and those chunk gains aren’t sustainable in this offense. How some mobility under center impacts Stevenson’s value is a guessing game at this point, though I am cautiously optimistic that the move under center is a net gain for New England’s RB1.

Antonio Gibson, RB

The Texans allow 43.8% of opponent yards to be gained on the ground, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL and in line with New England’s path to overachieving this week. If they can keep the Texans in check, maybe Gibson flirts with 10 touches, but that’s not nearly enough usage when you factor in the limited capacity of this offense.

I’d hold him as a way to invest in the unknown of the Maye era, but Gibson isn’t a player that you need to think about this week.

Nico Collins, WR

Remember when ACL injuries swept the league and they felt like a death nail in the stock of the player for years to come?

That time is behind us at this point, but hamstrings might be the new version, as they seem to be popping up left and right this season. Soft tissue injuries have long been dangerous – they have the potential to result in a limited inactive stretch but long-lasting limitations.

Adam Schefter reported on Monday that the Texans shifted their label of Collins from “day-to-day” to “week-to-week”, a red flag when it comes to his status moving forward after being placed on IR Wednesday morning. He’s established himself as not only the best receiver in Houston but also on the short list of the best in the game period.

Xavier Hutchinson (2023 sixth-round pick out of Iowa State) assumed the Collins role last week and that is likely to again be the case over the next month. He’ll be on the field in a pass-first offense as a heavy favorite … DFS punt play? Christian Gonzalez likely would have assumed shadow duties on Collins, but that’s unlikely to occur on his backup.

That specific cornerback matchup is what makes Hutchinson an interesting DFS punt play. If Collins is out, targets open up, and if Gonzalez is roaming, that hurts the target expectancy of both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.

Stefon Diggs, WR

Diggs made the mem circuit last week in side-eyeing Josh Allen, but his impact in the fantasy world deserves more attention. Many thought he was cooked after a second-half swoon with the Bills last season, but he’s carved out a nice niche in the short-yardage passing game this season, posting four top-24 finishes in the process.

For the season, that consistency has him sitting as fantasy’s 10th-best receiver (16.4 PPR PPG), something that I view as more symbolic of his ceiling than a realistic expectation.

That said, I have no real reservations in labeling him as a top-20 receiver this week against a defense that has allowed the fifth most slot completions this season. The per-catch upside may no longer be elite, but another 6-8 catch game seems likely and that’ll be plenty.

Tank Dell, WR

I have my concerns about Dell when this team is at full strength, but with Collins banged up, we could enter a nice little production zone that allows you to capitalize short-term and sell before it’s too late.

Career production vs. expectation:

• Perimeter: +21.4%
• Otherwise: -4.5%

Collins has accounted for 66.9% of Houston’s perimeter yardage this season, vacating a significant role that Dell is positioned best to assume. That doesn’t mean Dell is a must-start, the aforementioned Hutchinson could eat into this perimeter role, and the presence of a shutdown corner like Gonzalez caps Dell’s ceiling.

That said, he’s a WR3 for me that profiles in a similar way to that of Dontayvion Wicks (vs. AZ), Darnell Mooney (at CAR), and Michael Wilson (at GB).

You’ll want to check back to verify that the chest injury that has plagued Dell at points this season isn’t an issue, but after practicing all week last week, he should be considered close to fully healthy.

Ja’Lynn Polk, WR

With Maye poised to make his debut, I’m all in on embracing the unknown. That doesn’t mean you’re starting Polk, but it does mean you’re stashing him.

What do you have to lose?

We know this kid can play and we know this offense wasn’t positioned to produce anything of meaning for fantasy managers. If the worst case is status quo and there is hope for an upgrade, why not give any available piece of this Patriots offense a one-week trial at the end of your roster?

Polk nearly had the go-ahead touchdown last week, but his heels landed out of bounds. The Patriots are motivated to see what this Maye/Polk combination looks like, as it could well be featured for years to come – call me crazy, but I like rostering players who are prioritized by their NFL team.

Dalton Schultz, TE

I understand the idea behind rostering Schultz, I just don’t agree with it. In theory, getting exposure to this offense with Nico Collins banged up makes sense, but are we sure that anything changes in terms of the role of Houston’s starting tight end?

The projected absence of Collins opens up scoring equity, but when you consider that Schultz has been targeted on just 6.7% of his red-zone routes (Diggs and Dell are both north of 18%), I’m not banking on him picking up the slack.

The efficiency has been an issue this year (0.68 yards per route) and given that his aDOT slots in between that of Diggs and Dell, there’s no clear path to an increase in looks. Patriot games are often rock fights and with a sub-40-point total, the sportsbooks expect that to again be the case on Sunday.

I’d rather roll the dice on Zach Ertz (at BAL) or Mike Gesicki (at NYG) this week.

Hunter Henry, TE

New England’s offense lacks playmakers, but without a concentration of targets, Henry is going to have a difficult time producing anything close to viable fantasy numbers (Week 5 vs. Dolphins: two catches for 32 yards). Sunday was the fourth time in five weeks in which he has finished with exactly two grabs and without much explosion in his profile.

A low-volume role just isn’t going to get it done. If you want to circle back to the idea of Henry if/when Drake Maye takes the keys to this offense, be my guest. But until we reach that point, there’s no reason to dig this deep at the position.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints

• Spread: Saints -2
• Total: 45.5
• Buccaneers implied points: 21.8
• Saints implied points: 23.8

Baker Mayfield, QB

It’s difficult to describe just how good Mayfield has been through five weeks, but I’m going to try.

• 18 of 22 passing in the red zone this season
• 77.2% completion rate when blitzed (2023: 59.4%)
• 75% completion rate or a rush TD in all five games

Liam Coen is in his third NFL stint and may well have cracked the code. He’s schemed up a quick-strike offense (80.4% fast release rate for Mayfield this season, well above his previous career high of 66.3%), and his quarterback is excelling.

The completion percentages look good, but what has me more intrigued by his stability in terms of fantasy production is Mayfield’s comfort in tucking the ball when it’s required. While he doesn’t have the per-carry upside of a Lamar Jackson or the bull-in-a-china-shop physique of a Josh Allen, Mayfield has cleared 20 rushing yards three times this season and has moved the chains on 44.4% of his carries (2023: 25.8%).

What Mayfield is doing is both impactful for the Bucs and fantasy managers alike. He gets a good Saints defense this week, but one that is on a short week while Coen has had the mini-bye to develop a unique game plan.

Last season, Mayfield completed 47 of 65 passes (72.3%) against New Orleans with five scores to four different players across those two games (Trey Palmer was the repeat scorer). He wasn’t a top-20 quarterback in terms of ADP at any of the primary drafting sites this summer, and yet, after just five weeks, he’s a QB1 until otherwise noted.

Derek Carr, QB

Availability has been a strength of Carr’s over the course of his career with just three missed games on his résumé, but an oblique knocked him out of the fourth quarter on Monday night and this game comes with a quick turnaround.

New Orleans has another short work week up next (vs. Broncos on Thursday night to open up Week 7), making this a tough stretch when it comes to recovery windows. Carr didn’t offer much fantasy upside in the two Buccaneer meetings last season (two touchdowns and 4.7 yards per pass on 69 attempts), but this is a bit of a different matchup now.

Tampa Bay was a pass funnel last season, but in 2024, they’ve been more vulnerable on the ground. Through five weeks, the Bucs rank below the top 10 in preventing yards per completion, touchdown rate, and YAC per reception.

Some injured players are worthy of the headache that comes with tracking all reports – for me, if you’re streaming the QB position and have Carr rostered, I think you can safely look elsewhere this week (Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, and Justin Fields all being in play).

Rachaad White, RB

Running backs lose their jobs and/or get hurt; it happens. When the lead role is shifted from one player to another, it can be annoying, but at least we know where the touches are going (think Jerome Ford stepping into a featured role following Nick Chubb’s injury or Rico Dowdle moving past Ezekiel Elliott).

That’s not the case in Tampa Bay, which opens up all sorts of downsides for fantasy managers, no matter how on top of the news you are.

White’s two lowest snap shares this season have come in the past two weeks, and he’s trending in the wrong direction. However, his versatility is keeping him on the field for the majority of snaps (Week 5: 64.7%), and that’s creating an “if you have two, you don’t have any” situation in this backfield.

Last week in Atlanta:

• White: 13 touches for 66 yards, one red-zone touch
• Bucky Irving: 11 touches for 56 yards, four red-zone touches

If one of them gets 70% of that work, we are looking at a top-15 RB producer. Yet, as it sits right now, neither can be considered a safe RB2 due to the fragility of their touch count.

In the first three weeks of the season, White was on the field for every red-zone snap, but over the past two weeks, his rate is down to 52%. The backfield is clearly trending away from the incumbent, but not enough for a full pivot.

If you have the luxury of sitting White (RB34 this season), I would. His role is fading, and he totaled just 144 yards and zero scores on 33 touches against the Saints. But that’s unlikely to be the case in most instances with three running backs ranked ahead of him weekly (Kyren Williams, De’Von Achane, and Aaron Jones) all on bye this week.

White is an average Flex play in my Week 6 rankings and is the RB2 on this roster.

Bucky Irving, RB

What is White’s strength? It’s his ability to win in the passing game, right?

For his career, White averages just 3.7 yards per carry, but with an 89.1% catch rate, he’s been paying off PPR fantasy managers on a consistent basis for the better part of 13 months.

That is exactly why it feels like Irving is inches away from truly assuming the fantasy-friendly role in Tampa Bay’s offense. On the team’s first drive last Thursday night, I found it interesting that the Buccaneers put both White and Irving on the field for a snap inside the five-yard line, opting to split the rookie out wide.

Irving has looked like the more explosive back (5.6 yards per carry), so I was interested to see that Tampa wanted to leverage his route running in a scoring situation. Are they telling us that Irving is the more dangerous route runner?

Irving’s snap shares:

• Weeks 1-3: 33.5%
• Weeks 4-5: 41.6%

There’s little question in my mind that Irving is the back to own in this backfield for the remainder of the season. However, in the short term, this feels like a frustrating situation more than one you can feel good about.

Like White, Irving is a middling Flex option this week. A backfield split like this is going to be difficult to invest in with confidence, and this matchup doesn’t exactly make it any easier.

Alvin Kamara, RB

Did you watch the Saints on Monday night? Do you remember a single Kamara touch?

My guess is no, and that’s not on you. He offered very little in the way of memorable touches.

Kamara didn’t have a 15-yard gain. He didn’t score. And New Orleans lost by 13 points and never really had a chance to win.

In theory, that’s how weak running games play out, and yet, Kamara finished the week as RB22.

We are five weeks into 2024, and Kamara has 20 carries or five catches in every single game. He’s not Christian McCaffrey, but his role is trending in that direction in terms of bulletproof. That is stabilizing his value despite the efficiency concerns coming to fruition.

Weeks 1-2: 5.7 yards per carry
Weeks 3-5: 3.4 yards per carry

Any absence of Carr could result in disaster for fantasy’s RB2 this season (23.8 PPR points per game). If the chemistry in the passing game dries up, those limitations on the ground become more impactful and position Kamara to be more Rachaad White and less McCaffrey.

I’m still in on Kamara this week as the Bucs are the fourth-worst EPA rush defense this season, a tremendous decline for a unit that ranked sixth-best a season ago. Kamara caught 15 of 16 targets against the divisional opponent last season, giving hope that he can continue to be efficient through the air.

You’ll want to stay on top of the news. If Carr’s oblique injury is deemed a long-term issue, you owe it to your strong fantasy team to test the trade waters, even if it means selling Kamara at RB10 value more than RB2.

Mike Evans, WR

Evans scored on Tampa Bay’s opening drive last week and later added his 100th career score, posting his third game north of 20 PPR points in this young season. There are few assets in fantasy sports (not just football) as bankable year over year as the Bucs’ veteran, and this season is proving to be no different.

Evans is pacing to produce 20% or better over expectations for the fourth time in five seasons, thanks in large part to him seeing a target on 25% of his red-zone routes through five weeks — his highest rate since 2019. Unfortunately, the annual consistency that we’ve come to know and love has usually included a pair of dud performances in this matchup.

The superstar receiver has reached 13 PPR points in just three of his 19 career games against the Saints. Over his past six against the divisional rival, he’s earned a target on just 11.4% of his routes.

“It gets spicy when you come to New Orleans,” Evans has said in the past of his history with Marshon Lattimore, a statement that undershoots the fire that these two have shown when squaring off.

This matchup requires a lowering of expectations. Still, with the level of scoring equity that Evans carries, given the current level of play from Mayfield, he remains a starter for me in all redraft formats.

I prefer Chris Godwin to Evans this week and will be looking elsewhere when constructing my DFS lineups. But I’m not fully dismissing Evans as a usable piece, even when presented with the specific matchup data.

Chris Godwin, WR

Evans is the Buccaneers receiver with the high-end upside, but with this offense humming, Godwin’s elevated floor makes him a lineup lock without a second thought.

He is the first Tampa Bay Flex player with at least 11 PPR points in each of his first five games of a season since Keyshawn Johnson (2001), posting an 80% catch rate on strong volume that has allowed him to score at least 7.5% over expectation in four games this season.

The efficiency could fall back with time, but Godwin’s ability to earn looks (targeted on a career-high 25.2% of his routes) is what makes him a safe bet, and I don’t see that changing this season (59.8% slot rate in 2024, up from 32.8% last season).

With just one end-zone target on his ledger this season, the ceiling is low relative to other receivers that you’d never consider benching, though it is important to remember that not all players on your team need to be slate breakers.

Godwin has been phenomenal this season (WR6 on a per-game basis), and that should continue this week, especially if the voodoo around Evans in New Orleans scares you.

Chris Olave, WR

Entering Week 5, Olave had posted three straight top-26 finishes and seemed to be trending in a positive direction. He wasn’t doing much on Monday night in Kansas City, something that I was ready to dismiss as the result of a tough matchup, but when Carr left injured, the future outlook all changed.

His target earning has been more sporadic than most weekly starters over the course of his career and now, those opportunities aren’t nearly as valuable as they were before.

I’ve largely been burned for trusting Olave’s talent this season, consistently ranking him as a low-end WR1 while not really being rewarded for my loyalty. The math changes for all involved with a backup QB – Olave remains my favorite receiver in New Orleans, but in the scope of the NFL, he’s barely a WR2 and that’s with four teams on a bye.

To complicate matters further, Olave turned 66 routes into just 30 yards and no scores against these Buccaneers last season, a defense that was much more vulnerable to the pass than this year’s version. For his career, New Orleans’ WR1 has produced 43.8% below expectation against the divisional foe (four games) and that is in serious danger of being repeated.

Jalen Tolbert is averaging more PPR points this season than Olave and I’m not sure that changes in the short-term. I’m lumping him in with Amari Cooper and George Pickens in the tier of receiver that grades as the top option on their team but has an unreliable passer under center.

Rashid Shaheed, WR

I have too much respect for the strides that Shaheed has made this season to call his production a house of cards, but it’s not much more stable than that with Carr on the pine.

A house of cards will certainly crumble. Let’s call Shaheed a Jenga pile that is balanced on a single log. It has a chance to stand, but it’s certainly not an optimal situation.

The Bucs kept the burner in front of them last season (10.2 aDOT) and it worked as they held him to 47 yards on 10 targets across two games. The Saints defaulted to taking shot after shot to Shaheed last week against the Chiefs and it only took one connection to make him worthy of being in fantasy lineups (two-thirds of his Week 5 targets came at least 15 yards downfield).

That’s not my favorite usage pattern, but certain quarterbacks can pay it off. Old-school Russell Wilson was capable of paying off such receivers and Carr has put himself in that category in terms of the quality of the deep ball.

It’s important, however, to acknowledge that QBs like that are the exception and not the rule. New Orleans has made a point of taking slot routes off of the plate of Shaheed (down more than 50% from last season), something that works if the splash plays are happening – if those big plays dry up, this is a thin profile.

I’m nothing if not an optimist. New Orleans has shown the willingness to put Shaheed in the slot before, and if they go back to that plan (something we can hope for but can’t realistically project with confidence), there’s a path to reasonable production against the worst slot defense in the NFL in terms of completion percentage.

Taysom Hill, TE

Hill suffered a fractured rib in Week 4 after authoring his best fantasy week of the season and sat out Week 5. It’s very possible that Hill will miss extended time, but Hill needs to be universally rostered with the injury to Carr and New Orleans’ offensive weapon listed as a “TE” on all fantasy providers.

If we get news that Carr is going to miss extended time, Hill is a cheat code the second he is activated. He wouldn’t assume a traditional QB role. Heck, we could easily see a committee situation in this case, but even 25 snaps under center would give Hill a top-five upside at the TE position.

What would you expect from him if Carr were to sit? Maybe 8-10 throws and 8-10 rush attempts with a good bet to handle the valuable touches?

We live in a world where 8.1 points per game is a top-10 tight end this season, and 11 ppg is TE6. With that usage projection, Hill wouldn’t have an issue providing top-10 numbers.

There are two moving pieces here in terms of health. But by stashing Hill now, you give yourself the opportunity to benefit in a major way. If things don’t work in your favor, you pivot and go on with your life.

The risk is minimal, and the reward is that of a game-changer.

Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• Spread: Eagle -8.5
• Total: 44
• Browns implied points: 17.8
• Eagles implied points: 26.3

Deshaun Watson, QB

In the 32-team NFL, 34 players have a completion of more than 30 yards this season. That extended list, however, doesn’t include Watson’s name despite him having thrown 176 passes.

A lack of per-play upside is one thing, and it’s certainly a concern, but a lack of play upside is a different animal. We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow dink and dunk their way to value at points, but without the benefit of passing volume, that becomes difficult, if not impossible.

The Browns are 12 of 66 (18.2%) on third downs this season. That level of futility is difficult to properly add context to — it’s less than half of the NFL average this season and nearly eight percentage points worse than the disaster that was the New York Jets’ league-low percentage last season.

Even if you want to talk yourself into Watson still having access to the upside based on his versatility from his Houston days (I’m guessing you have dial-up internet and/or still receive the newspaper each morning), the inability to extend drives cannot be ignored. The reliable options in 2024 can count on either the quality or quantity of attempts, if not both.

Watson doesn’t have a clear path to either and hasn’t shown anything in the way of hope that either will be a part of his profile moving forward.

Jalen Hurts, QB

Hurts has one finish this season better than QB10 (QB2 in Week 2 in New Orleans) and yet, I’d consider the first month of the season a reasonable success when you consider the number of moving pieces.

• New starting running back
• Retired linchpin to the offensive line
• Injury to WR1
• Injury to WR2
• One true home game

Despite all of that, Hurts has been a top-12 quarterback in three of four games. He’s been a productive part of your team this season and better times are likely to come as this roster gets healthy and gels. The matchup with the Browns isn’t nearly as scary as it looked six weeks ago (15th in defensive EPA and 19th in red-zone defense) – Hurts is a top-five play for me this week and is to be considered as such every week moving forward.

Jerome Ford, RB

Nick Chubb (knee) returned to practice last week in a limited capacity, his first on-field work in more than a calendar year. That began the three-week clock on his return, positioning him to debut against the Ravens in Week 8. That’s a brutal matchup, sure, but it gives him a “normal” week with the Browns playing Sunday afternoon in Week 8 and 9 before going on bye in Week 10.

Adding him now could prove very fruitful if you’re confident in your roster depth — Cleveland gets Cincinnati and Miami in Weeks 16-17. If he can check all needed hurdles and this team remains competitive, I think there’s a good chance he is leading this backfield in work, and a home game against a potentially dead Dolphins team with a mini-bye (Thursday Night Football in Week 16) is appealing.

In terms of the short-term, this is an offense I’d rather not invest in and to be honest, that might not change when Chubb returns. Ford’s snap share is tanking (82.5% in Week 3 against the Giants down to 77.2% in Week 4 at Vegas and 59.3% last week in Washington) and while I’d love to get exposure against an Eagles defense that has allowed a league-high 2.3 15+ yard runs per game to RBs this season, I can’t do it with confidence here.

Ford is my RB25 this week and much more likely to move down the ranks as we approach kickoff than up.

Saquon Barkley, RB

Barkley (fantasy’s RB1 thus far) is pacing for 2,210 yards from scrimmage, has multiple receptions in every game this season, and has a pair of multi-touchdown games (he was the top-scoring PPR back in both of those instances). Outside of that, he really hasn’t done much since joining the Eagles.

For a high-usage back like Barkley, I don’t love the early bye week, but if that’s all we are nitpicking, you’re living the good life. I’d expect the first month of the season to be Barkley’s best (full health, injured teammates, etc.), but that doesn’t mean he should be considered anything less than a top-five running back moving forward, and that’s certainly the case against a Browns team that isn’t far from completely giving up.

Amari Cooper, WR

Volume is valuable until it’s not and it’s currently not in Cleveland.

Cooper is the only player in the league with at least eight targets in all five weeks this season, a level of involvement that should result in finishing as a top-40 receiver at a higher than 20% rate, but nope.

Despite all of the opportunities and raw talent, Cooper is not one of the 89 players with a 25-yard catch this season. Given that the Eagles have had an extra week to prepare for this vanilla matchup, I can’t recommend playing him with any sort of confidence.

You drafted him well ahead of Michael Wilson, Dontayvion Wicks, and Darnell Mooney but that doesn’t matter now – I’d play all three of those receivers over Cooper along with 32 other players at the position.

Jerry Jeudy, WR

Jeudy tricked me last week. He entered a perfect matchup with Washington having seen at least six targets in four straight games, and I figured nothing could go wrong.

One catch for 16 yards later, I’m ready to admit I was wrong.

Now, it should be noted that he had a chance to score, but he promptly put the ball on the grass. In theory, I should be excited about this matchup against the third-worst slot defense by EPA, but I’m not. You’re not playing any Cleveland receiver at this point and with another underwhelming week, Jeudy will be on the can-cut list.

A.J. Brown, WR

Early-week reporting paints an optimistic picture when it comes to Brown playing his first game on American soil this season on Sunday. While that means he is back into fantasy lineups, I’m measuring my expectations.

Cleveland’s defense has underachieved this season, but it remains the sixth-best unit against the slot through five weeks, and we saw Brown’s slot usage spike in Week 1 (36.6%, up from 24.9% in 2023). That’s not to say the Browns can stop him; I don’t think they can, but we are talking about a player coming off of a hamstring injury that cost him a month and could line up in an area of strength.

Cleveland is being attacked vertically on a consistent basis this season (third-highest opponent aDOT). While that typically puts Brown in the DFS go-zone, I want to see him at full strength before I assume that the elite upside is on the table.

Brown is a top-15 receiver for me this week more than a top-10 option. That shouldn’t matter in the least for you — if he plays for the Eagles, he plays for you.

DeVonta Smith, WR

Smith exited Week 3 early after a cheap shot landed him in concussion protocol and resulted in him sitting the following game before the Eagles went on bye in Week 5. Before the injury, Smith posted his third straight game with at least seven grabs, a streak that remains the longest this season (Malik Nabers has also done it).

The increase in volume this season is due in part to the lack of Brown’s health but also a slight shift in role. Smith has spent 39.2% of his routes in the slot (24.3% in 2023), and in doing so, he’s sacrificed some aDOT for an increase in target share, a trade-off PPR managers should be thrilled about.

Things seem to be trending in a positive direction for Smith this week, which is why I have him penciled in as a top-30 wide receiver option with a reasonable level of confidence.

Assuming no setbacks occur, it’s plenty reasonable to expect another 12-15-point effort with more upside than we would have assumed in this matchup at the beginning of the season (Cleveland has allowed the eighth-most yards per completion through five weeks).

David Njoku, TE

Njoku was on the field for 42.4% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps last week in his return from the ankle sprain he suffered in the season opener and caught one of three targets for 14 yards.

I thought he looked fine, but at this point, the Browns’ offense as a whole is the primary concern. Cleveland has yet to score 20 points in a game, and Watson has yet to reach 200 yards through the air. Cooper is going to soak up plenty of usage, and while Jeudy hasn’t been productive, he’s been reasonably involved.

Add in the dump-off to the running backs and you start running out of targets for Njoku to earn. I don’t doubt that he’ll work his way back into the secondary target role behind Cooper once he is considered to be at full strength. Yet, due to the state of this offense, I’m comfortable taking a wait-and-see approach.

Njoku is currently my TE15, with any optimism I have for him being generated by a positive game script more so than wanting to bet on Cleveland’s offense in any capacity.

Dallas Goedert, TE

With the variety of injuries hampering the Eagles’ potency through the air, Goedert deserves to be considered a lineup lock. He was the top-scoring tight end in the two weeks before Philadelphia’s bye (8.1 more PPR points than any other player at the position in Weeks 3-4) and has seen his aDOT jump by 20% from where it stood a season ago.

We’ll see what his usage looks like when his teammates are at full strength, but at the TE position, you’re taking any extended role that you can get, and Goedert is in that spot until proven otherwise. In a perfect world, we see him targeted in the red zone more than once every nine routes, but beggars can’t be choosers here — plug Goedert in with confidence.

Washington Commanders vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Spread: Ravens -6.5
• Total: 52
• Commanders implied points: 22.8
• Ravens implied points: 29.3

Jayden Daniels, QB

The rookie has three top-five finishes this week and the only reason he “held” to a QB12 finish last week in the 21-point win over the Browns was because he was pulled early. For the season, Daniels is averaging 11.4 rush attempts per game while completing 77.1% of his passes, a profile that carries a floor that is on par with the very best in the game.

The 2024 Ravens look an awfully lot like the 2023 Buccaneers in that they are among the elite at stopping the run while being vulnerable through the air in a major way. Through five weeks, Baltimore is allowing the fourth most yards per pass and paces the league in terms of the percentage of opponent yardage gained through the air (82.3%).

In a month’s time, the question around Daniels has shifted from, “Is he the best fantasy rookie QB in redraft?” to, “Is he the most valuable asset in the game and a threat to lead all players in points this season?”

It’s possible that there is some regression with time, but it’s not coming next week and I already have him penciled in as a Tier 1 option for Week 7 (vs. Panthers).

Lamar Jackson, QB

It only takes a pulse to produce viable numbers against the Commanders these days and it’s safe to say the reigning MVP checks that box with nothing but top-10 finishes on his 2024 ledger.

LAMAR JACKSON WOWpic.twitter.com/TvPpvwfyYu

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL)

Jackson has a 15+ yard run in every game this season and has been operating with as much comfort as he has at any point of his career (1.80 touchdown passes per interception, up from 0.56 over the previous three seasons) and that’s resulted in a career-best 50% deep completion percentage.

Someone will eventually slow down Jackson and the Commanders (third-highest opponent pass TD rate) will eventually offer a strong defensive effort – parlaying them to occur on the same field isn’t wise. Jackson is on a tier by himself at the position this week.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB

Robinson entered the weekend as a game-time decision (knee), and although he was active, Washington was able to manage his reps due to the one-sided nature of the game with the Browns.

While he was only given seven touches, Robinson did manage to continue to do his best 2023 Gus Edwards impression with a pair of short scores. Austin Ekeler continues to impress, and Daniels is pretty clearly a rare option under center, but Robinson’s role as the drive finisher in what appears destined to be a top-10 offense has him labeled as a lineup lock across all formats.

Is his profile perfect? No. Robinson’s role in the passing game can be fleeting, and if the short-yardage situations don’t present themselves, Robinson is the type who could finish outside of the top 30 at the position without much doing.

That said, this is the type of offense you want for a back like this. You’re playing Robinson (RB13 this season) every week, understanding the risk but also that it’s more likely than not going to pay off.

Austin Ekeler, RB

The sample size isn’t huge (30 touches across four games), but Ekeler has shown some of the burst that we feared he had lost (301 yards and one touchdown). The veteran running back has a 20-plus yard gain in every contest he’s appeared in this season, and while it’s unlikely that he will assume the entire role vacated by Robinson, a season-high 12-15 touches seems like a good bet.

This is a tough matchup for Ekeler, as the Ravens are an elite run defense. Baltimore is the only defense that has yet to allow a 20-yard run to a running back and they are giving up the fourth-fewest yards per carry before contact to running backs.

However, the Ravens have been vulnerable through the air. I’d be surprised if Ekeler clears 50 yards on the ground in this matchup, but a handful of targets is certainly possible and in a Jayden-Daniels-led offense, there is scoring equity for anyone on the field for the majority of snaps.

Ekeler will now be viewed as a low-end RB2, one that is more appealing in full-PPR leagues than anything else.

Derrick Henry, RB

King Henry struggled for much of Week 5 and yet, he offered the game-deciding play in overtime, allowing him to post his third straight top-10 finish at the position. He has a strong case to be the top overall fantasy asset in any week, but one against the league’s worst defense in terms of yards per carry allowed before contact?

I’m in. Baltimore’s best defense against Daniels might well be establishing Henry in a high-volume way from the jump.

Terry McLaurin, WR

Over the past three weeks, McLaurin is fantasy’s 12th leading scorer, ranking ahead of CeeDee Lamb, DK Metcalf, and Mike Evans. The rising tide of Daniels isn’t lifting all boats, but McLaurin’s stock is trending toward what we had wishcasted for years.

Truth be told, his 112-yard day against the Browns last week could have been even better – he fumbled a rushing attempt and dropped a fade that was put on the money and should have been a 12-yard score. He gets a Ravens defense that carries the preconceived notion of a tough spot based on what they’ve accomplished in the past, but this is a pass funnel that we need to be targeting.

Through five weeks Baltimore is the fourth-worst defense against the slot by EPA and allows the third most quick completions per game. That’ll work for ScaryTerry, as Washington’s bonafide WR1 has seen 39.7% of Commander receiver targets on those fast passes and should pile up the looks on Sunday.

Sportsbooks are expecting this to be the highest-scoring game of the week and if that is even close to accurate, McLaurin deserves to be in the top-15 conversation at the position.

Zay Flowers, WR

This kid is talented and one who I want to buy in on before the price gets prohibitive. Flowers lit up the Bengals for 111 receiving yards, earning nearly 27% of the completions, and he looked like the versatile weapon we know him to be.

Of course, this came on the heels of a two-game run that saw him total four catches for 30 yards.

There is no denying the risk that comes with a situation like this. Flowers can be the most gifted receiver in the league, but in an offense that ranks 27th in second-half dropback rate, you’re walking a thin line.

Through five weeks, Baltimore’s WR1 has a pair of top-15 finishes and three rankings outside of the top 30. In theory, that means that you should give thought to playing Flowers every week, but I’m willing to blow through that stop sign and start him every single week.

Flowers has more receptions (24) than any of his teammates have targets so far in 2024, and I trust Baltimore’s offense to put points on the board consistently. If a manager is looking to sell Flowers after the strong Week 5 performance, I’m certainly interested.

The price likely only increases after this weekend, and with a potential shootout with the Texans on a fast track looming come fantasy Super Bowl time, the savvy fantasy manager will consider paying up now with the larger picture in mind.

Rashod Bateman, WR

Two months ago, we were spoonfed Bateman propaganda by the Baltimore media. Now, after two scores in three weeks, people are looking to revisit those reports and consider him a low-end Flex option in this ideal matchup.

You get what you deserve.

We’re talking about a receiver who hasn’t reached 60 receiving yards in over 750 days and plays for an offense struggling to get its three primary pass catchers the ball on a consistent basis.

Bateman saw eight targets and scored in Cincinnati last week, his first finish better than WR40 on the season. I’d set the over/under at 2.5 more usable weeks this season — and good luck trying to predict them.

If you want to stash Bateman and sell him to the highest bidder after another great matchup, be my guest. Outside of that, I really have no interest in rostering him, let alone playing him.

Zach Ertz, TE

An older tight end who has earned targets in volume in the past and plays for an explosive offense.

Did I just describe Ertz or Mark Andrews?

Ertz has turned 11 targets over the past two weeks into a whopping 8.2 PPR points. On a spreadsheet, he makes sense. Ertz plays for a defense-is-optional team that is routinely in a pass-heavy script but doesn’t have a proven WR2 (McLaurin is the only WR on Washington’s roster with even 125 receiving yards).

Daniels has proven wise beyond his years in terms of target distribution, and while that is great for the franchise both short and long-term, it means we can’t count on a player like Ertz on a consistent basis. That said, he has snuck inside my top 15 this week due to the matchup.

Through five weeks, the Ravens are a bottom-five pass defense in terms of completions, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and passer rating. They are a pass funnel that can score in bunches — the perfect matchup for fringe pass catchers, a tier that Ertz is squarely a part of.

Isaiah Likely, TE

Likely scored a pair of touchdowns last weekend, something that should serve as a reminder as to how fragile this position is. He was on the field for over 70% of Baltimore’s snaps for the first time since Week 1, but his on-field target share was a season-low 8.8%.

If you’re betting on Likely, you’re betting on a process and on an offense. The Ravens have made it clear that they value the athleticism that Likely offers, but Todd Monken’s offense is built around the run game and spreading the targets around.

I don’t mind committing to Likely weekly and simply taking the good with the bad. His floor is the same as 90% of the players at the position, but his ceiling is higher than most. I like Baltimore to flirt with 30 points this week, which lands Likely as a TE1 for me.

Mark Andrews, TE

Andrews’ first catch last week was an impactful one (27-yard gain from the shadow of their own goal posts and down 10 points in the fourth quarter), and his target rate was as high as it’s been this season. However, the production remains well below the lofty standards Andrews has set, and I don’t think that’s going to change.

You could argue that he should have had a touchdown last week if Jackson put a throw where it needed to be. Instead, Andrews was tackled at the 2-yard line. With that, maybe the Week 6 outlook is a bit different.

Andrews’ physical profile offers less upside than that of Likely’s, and at this point, with neither occupying a stable role, that is enough for me to justify ranking the latter a handful of spots ahead.

I’m still rostering Andrews, and I think you can justify playing him in a favorable offensive spot like this. Maybe I’m just holding out hope that this team has learned from the Chiefs and will wait to unleash their All-Pro TE when it matters the most down the stretch.

Dropping Andrews, for me, isn’t much of an option unless a player like Tucker Kraft is still available for some reason. Are you gaining much in the way of stability by cutting ties for a Tyler Conklin or Mike Gesicki? I say no.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos

• Spread: Chargers -3
• Total: 36
• Chargers implied points: 19.5
• Broncos implied points: 16.5

Justin Herbert, QB

I’ll be honest with you – I guess the spreads and totals every week before writing this article and I had trouble getting this projection over 33 points.

That sort of environment is going to make mining for fantasy production a near impossibility. If you’re an “NFL RedZone” watcher and see seven plays from this game on Sunday, I’d be surprised and that means I’m actively avoiding every piece from this contest.

Herbert is talented, but not valuable. Not in our game. He’s yet to post a top-20 season and his passing yardage pace for 17 games this season would come up 296 yards shy of Otto Graham’s total in 1947, when the NFL was still working to embrace the forward pass and played a 14-game regular season.

And they said I couldn’t work Otto Graham into this piece.

Bo Nix, QB

Nix has more top-12 finishes this season than Patrick Mahomes. OK, so maybe that’s more of a Mahomes problem than fuel for hyping up Nix, but a fact is a fact.

Nix has cleared six fantasy points with his legs in three of five weeks this season and with him showing signs of growth as a passer, it’s easy to see his path to being a fantasy asset.

Eventually.

The consistency is still lacking in a major way and giving an above-average defense extended time to prepare isn’t something I have any interest in doing with a sporadic rookie QB. I can be as encouraged as I want to be about some of the single-play potential here – backing a signal caller who is 12-of-37 with zero scores and three picks on balls thrown 15+ yards downfield is reckless behavior.

J.K. Dobbins, RB

Dobbins looked like a league-winner through two weeks, but his fantasy stock came crashing back to earth as the schedule toughened and the game scripts moved away from his favor.

• Week 1 vs. Raiders: RB4 (12-point win)
• Week 2 at Panthers: RB5 (23-point win)
• Week 3 at Steelers: RB36 (10-point loss)
• Week 4 vs. Chiefs: RB34 (seven-point loss)

Dobbins’ elusive rating fell off of a cliff heading into the bye and has resulted in his percentage of carries that have gained yardage declining each week this season. On the positive side of things, he’s caught three passes in three of four games, though his résumé (27 catches in 24 career games entering this season) would suggest that maintaining that rate is unlikely.

Dobbins has accounted for 66.9% of the Chargers’ rushing yards this season, and with Edwards (3.0 yards per carry) posing very little threat in terms of role growth, that rate could stick for the foreseeable future.

In a game that I expect to be competitive, sheer volume lands Dobbins on my Flex radar. However, I’m not excited to plug him in and would be thrilled to move him after his next viable performance. I’m just not sure it comes this weekend against the fourth-best rush defense by EPA.

Javonte Williams, RB

Williams picked up 10 PPR points as a pass catcher in the win over the Raiders last week and that allowed him to finish better than RB25 for the first time this season. The rushing production has slowly been coming around for Denver’s starter in consecutive games (29 attempts for 138 yards) and with this offense relying on dump-off passes, the RB1 role is one that holds value.

The profile looks fine, but not in this matchup against the best EPA rush defense in the league. I anticipate limited efficiency from Williams in this spot and that means he likely needs a touchdown against the second-best red-zone defense to justify a top-20 ranking.

Williams sits just outside of my top 25 this week, though I’ll admit that it’s unlikely that you have a better Flex option on your roster.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB

A short touchdown catch resulted in McLaughlin’s first top-35 finish of the season, but the touch count remained far too low to justify Flexing him as a part of an underwhelming offense.

McLaughlin was on the field for a season-best 39.7% of snaps last week, so that’s a start. He’s a stash right now and I have a hard time seeing him get past that given the limitations of this offense – anything but a featured role comes with a lot of downside and Sean Payton seems committed to a backfield split.

Quentin Johnston, WR

Johnston generated some interest heading into Los Angeles Week 5 bye as he has held an on-field target share of over 20% in three of four games. His piece of the pie makes him worthy of a roster spot, but the size of the pie is what makes him a player I can’t play.

The Chargers don’t just throw the ball less than any team in the league, they average 13.2% fewer attempts than any other team and average fewer passes thrown than eight teams’ average completions.

With the Broncos allowing the third fewest yards per pass and Patrick Surtain looming, Johnston shouldn’t be on your list of viable options this week.

Ladd McConkey, WR

McConkey is flying a bit under the radar due to the explosive talents in this rookie WR class, but he ultimately suffers from the same issues that Johnston does. The two top-20 finishes are nice and are deserving of a look in DFS contests, but considering that he’s finished outside of the top 50 receivers in his other two games, the reward doesn’t outweigh the significant risk.

He is my highest-ranked Charger receiver of the week due to Denver’s league-leading blitz rate (41.2% of opponent dropbacks), but that doesn’t land him inside of my top 36 at the position.

Josh Palmer, WR

Palmer has yet to reach five targets or 40 yards in a game this season. I liked his profile entering the season, but we are a ways away from him deserving to be on fantasy rosters, let alone in the mix for your starting lineup.

Courtland Sutton, WR

Sutton hauled in a 46-yard touchdown against these Bolts last season, but in the Bo Nix version of this offense, Sutton is just as risky as any of Los Angeles’ receivers. The Chargers own the league’s lowest opponent aDOT and the third-highest opponent three-and-out-rate, making any attempt to squint and see a ceiling case even more difficult for Denver’s clear WR1.

This projects to be an old-school game with little pace – if you can avoid watching, betting, and rostering players involved, you position yourself to enjoy this lovely October weekend much more.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• Spread: Steelers -3
• Total: 36.5
• Steelers implied points: 19.8
• Raiders implied points: 16.8

Justin Fields, QB

Fields has posted a passer rating north of 90 in all five weeks this season and is coming off his first multi-pass touchdown game of the season. He is a pretty good example of the disconnect between football fans and fantasy managers – Fields has been a better real-life QB this season, and it’s coming at the expense of his fantasy value.

The reckless rushing attempts have been eliminated to a degree (44 carries this season and zero have gained more than 16 yards) and with just 27.2 passing attempts per game, there just isn’t enough value for Fields to return value on a consistent basis.

You’re looking at this matchup and likely assuming it’s a good one, but be careful, not all matchups are created equal. The Raiders are the fourth-best third-down defense this season (30%), bringing in an even lower opportunity floor for Fields. Also working against him is Vegas’ 31st ranking in pressure rate this season – that positions Fields to be more of a pocket passer and while he’s improved in that respect, it’s not how he piles up fantasy points in bunches.

Russell Wilson (calf) is expected to be active for the first time this season and that introduces yet another moving piece. I’m happy to take my chances with a Daniel Jones (vs. Bengals) or Andy Dalton (vs. Falcons) this week if I’m looking to replace Patrick Mahomes on a bye.

Gardner Minshew II / Aidan O’Connell, QB

Minshew was the NFL’s leader in completion percentage through two weeks this season. Heck, he completed his first nine passes on Sunday, a game he was ultimately benched in.

Well, above-average quarterbacks are having a hard time clearing 17 points against these Steelers, making Vegas’ low implied total one that I’m more likely to bet under than over. At the end of the day, you’re in trouble if you’re counting on this offense in any capacity.

There are some slight trends that suggest that Jakobi Meyers is slightly more valuable if this team does make a change under center, but Brock Bowers is the only Raider that should be on your radar this weekend (and likely for the remainder of the season).

Najee Harris, RB

Harris is the featured back in an offense that wants to run the ball and melt the clock – it hasn’t mattered. Harris has been held out of the end zone on all 94 of his touches and is producing at a rate that is 26.2% below expectations.

In theory, this spot against a bottom-five run defense is one that you should feel good about, but I said the same thing last week at home against a decimated Cowboys unit.

Harris (season-high 73.7% snap share in Week 5) saved a complete disaster of a day with 5.5 fantasy points in the passing game, a bail-out option that isn’t always going to be there. That said, he’s still an RB2 for me because of the state of the position and the presence of nearly evenly split committees.

Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson, RB

Both secondary backs sat out Week 5 (Warren with a knee injury and Patterson an ankle) and all signs point to them missing this weekend as well. You’re not getting access to them this week and the Jets are on the schedule for next week.

That’s two weeks in which you likely won’t consider these backs in any capacity and with the Week 9 bye quickly approaching, you shouldn’t feel tied to either of these options on the back-end of your roster.

Zamir White, RB

A groin injury suffered in practice cost White Week 5, an injury that may have saved fantasy managers from themselves. We reflexively trust volume, but when you consider that White is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season and doesn’t have a catch in consecutive games, where does the upside reside?

For the time being, White projects as the leader of this backfield when healthy, but his grasp on that role is loose and this offense isn’t likely to offer much in the way of scoring chances. You can enter Week 6 without the intent to play any Raider from this backfield and feel good about it.

Alexander Mattison, RB

With White out last week, Mattison stepped into the lead role, though a 56.9% to 43.1% snap share lead over Ameer Abduallah wasn’t exactly the bellcow role we had hoped for.

As “the guy” in Minnesota last season, Mattison struggled with efficiency (3.9 yards per carry), so it shouldn’t be surprising that he picked up just 38 yards on 15 carries against a strong Denver defense last week. I could write that off due to the matchup, but with the second-best run defense on the opposite sideline this week, it’s hard to get excited.

If White sits, Mattison would rank higher than White currently does for me because I’d assign him a higher percentage of the Vegas running back touch count, but in no scenario does this offense have a running back that resides in my top 30.

George Pickens, WR

Would Pickens stand to benefit if this team elected to go with Russell Wilson under center? I tend to think so, but we can cross that bridge when/if we come to it. In the situation as it stands, Pickens hasn’t been a top-40 receiver in three of the past four weeks and is producing 19.7% below target expectation (2021-22: +17.3%).

It’s hard for me to rank a WR1 on a team that’s favored who has seen at least seven targets in 80% of his games this season, but here we are. Pickens deserves your consideration as a Flex option and is no longer a lineup staple.

Davante Adams, WR

How this Adams story ends is anyone’s guess, but I’m choosing to believe that he is reasonably healthy (before this season, one missed game in three seasons). If the Raiders can find a trade partner, Adams will move back into my top 10 both weekly and from his debut for his new team and for the remainder of the season.

We know what to think of Adams when he is locked in and I think he’s a WR1 regardless of where he lands – the larger impact will be on the incumbent WR1.

Jakobi Meyers, WR

Meyers has produced 9.6% over PPR fantasy expectation on passes thrown by Aidan O’Connell in his career (with Gardner Minshew II: -2.8%). That’s a cute trend that I might look to utilize with time, but against a stingy Steelers defense that ranks eighth in pressure rate when bringing a blitzer, I’ll pass on all Raider running backs and receivers this week and for the foreseeable future.

Pat Freiermuth, TE

There is one tight end in the National Football League with at least three catches in all five weeks this season, and it’s the man they call MUTH.

Yes, of course, I’m playing fast and loose with some things here. A handful of viable tight ends have missed time while others were disqualified from this list due to a bye, but that doesn’t make this any less true.

Freiermuth owns the lowest aDOT of his career and offers very little in terms of an athletic profile that gives him an after-the-catch profile, so I understand if you’re not drawn to the pride of Penn State. That said, he’s caught all seven of his targets this season when Justin Fields is outside of the pocket (69 yards and a touchdown) and has a role, even if it’s not an exciting one, in this offense.

The Raiders are a bottom-10 defense in terms of opponent pass TD rate and own the fifth-lowest aDOT against. Freiermuth is unlikely to sink your ship, and with more scoring equity than he holds in other matchups, he’s a TE1 for me.

Brock Bowers, TE

There was no doubting the profile, and as it turns out, the pedigree of Bowers is capable of superseding any offensive limitations. He is the third first-round pick over the past decade to catch at least six passes in three of his first five career games (the others: Malik Nabers this season and DeVonta Smith in 2021) and has looked all sorts of legit in doing so.

Might Bowers be too good?

I say that tongue-in-cheek. Sort of. With Davante Adams having possibly played his last game with the franchise, Bowers and Meyers are the two members of Vegas’ offense that teams will respect. While Meyers has some potential, it’s become clear that Bowers is more of the game-breaker.

With that understood, top options facing the Steelers this season have caught just 54.8% of their targets and have yet to find pay dirt. Those trends are enough for me to look for other options at the position in a DFS setting, but Bowers’ role on the offense will lock him into season-long lineups.

Bowers could bust this week (Weeks 3-4: five catches for 60 yards total), and it wouldn’t change a thing about how I view him. This position breeds uncertainty, but few have the projectable upside of the Raiders’ rookie.

Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys

• Spread: Lions -3.5
• Total: 52.5
• Lions implied points: 28
• Cowboys implied points: 24.5

Jared Goff, QB

The last time we saw Goff on an NFL field, he was busy completing all 18 of his passes against a Seahawks defense that had posted elite numbers through three weeks. That performance earned him a 98 in our QB+ metric, the best grade we’ve handed out this season and likely the best we’ll give throughout it.

Yes, that flawless effort was Goff’s first finish better than QB18 this season, but he checked every box. Now, he gets an additional week to prepare for a limping Cowboys defense that played on Sunday night and operates at the fastest pace in the NFL through five weeks.

Some of Dallas’ defensive metrics look viable, but they’ve faced two above-average offenses this season and coughed up 72 points across those eight quarters. Goff finds himself tucked inside my top 10 at the position this week, ranked ahead of most other pocket passers (Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Derek Carr, to name a few).

Dak Prescott, QB

Prescott has only one finish inside the top 10 at the position this season, but he’s got a good chance to double that number on Sunday against a defense that has allowed 74% of yards gained against them come through the air (third highest).

I can’t talk you off of questionable vibes, mainly because “vibes” isn’t a category that I have any interest in attempting to quantify. CeeDee Lamb pretty clearly isn’t thrilled with his QB these days – he must not roster him in fantasy.

Dallas blew out Cleveland in Week 1 and that carried some game script issues that are unlikely to be an issue this week. If you extend Prescott’s next four games over an entire season, he’s finishing with 5,292 yards and 30 touchdowns.

If you’re trying to overthink this, don’t. A rested Lions team came off their bye last season only to allow Justin Herbert to gash them for 323 yards and four scores through the air. Rico Dowdle seems destined to give this offense some semblance of balance and that stands to increase Prescott’s quality of pass more than it would hurt his quantity.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB

Gibbs has been a top-15 producer at the position in every game this season, improving his efficiency from a strong rookie campaign.

His grade in our custom elusive rating was among the best in the game last season at 39.6% and, through four games this year, his rate sits at 44.4%. Gibbs is on the short list of running backs who could lead the position in PPR points from this point forward and I think he starts that chase with a good showing against the third-worst run defense in the NFL by EPA.

David Montgomery, RB

I mentioned Gibbs’ consistency, and Montgomery isn’t far behind with nothing by top-20 finishes on his 2024 résumé. As per usual, Montgomery has a touchdown rush and a reception in every game this season, a role in which we’ve seen him thrive for 13 months now.

I see no reason to worry in the least about Detroit’s drive finisher in this matchup against the second-worst red-zone defense in all the land. You want as much exposure as you can get to this game and Montgomery is no exception.

Rico Dowdle, RB

Dowdle has a touchdown reception in consecutive games and has seen his carry count increase in three straight. My concern for new bellcow backs is usually their ability to sustain efficiency with volume.

Dowdle (50.7% snap share) checked that box last week against an elite Steelers defense. For the game, he gained at least five yards on 45% of his rushes, a rate that didn’t flinch as the night progressed (fourth quarter rate: 44.4%).

The Lions’ run defense has largely been better than the league average this season, though they have allowed rushing scores at the third-highest rate to the running back position. Dowdle checks in as my RB20 this week and I could see him moving up as October progresses if he can get his snap rate closer to 60%.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB

Elliott’s name is one you know and it was easy this preseason to talk yourself into a Gus Edwards-like role for an explosive offense.

But that’s the beauty of fantasy – you’re allowed to adjust off of priors that have proven inaccurate. ‘Zeke has been held under a 31% snap share in three consecutive games and with Dowdle proving capable, there’s no reason to hold onto the veteran back at this point.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR

With the bye week now behind him, how many receivers do you want for the rest of the season over St. Brown? Detroit’s star has finished as a WR1 in three straight games and in six of his past seven dating back to last season.

We are looking at a third straight season with an on-field target share over 28% and the banged-up Cowboys figure to have little answer for one of the elite opportunity earners in our game.

Jameson Williams, WR

Don’t let the Week 5 bye result in you forgetting that we were on the fringe of a true Williams breakout. He’s been a top-24 receiver in three of four games this season. I’m buying the long-term profile, but this Week 6 matchup does worry me a bit.

Before the bye, Williams earned just five targets in 46 routes over two games, usage that opens the door for a low floor if the splash play doesn’t come through. He’s obviously elite at making those big plays, but his skill set makes him more reliant on matchups than a well-rounded receiver like St. Brown and this specific spot is worrisome.

This season, the Cowboys allow a league-low 7.0 yards per deep pass attempt. They are dealing with numerous injuries, though I thought they showed well for themselves against the Steelers last week.

Williams carries enough risk to fall outside of my top 20 this week, but not enough to remove him from starting lineups. Even in a tough spot, I prefer him to Chris Olave and George Pickens.

CeeDee Lamb, WR

It’s pretty clear that things aren’t exactly clicking in Big D, but there’s nothing actionable to do with regard to their WR1. Lamb is pacing for 140 targets this season and I promise you that if he gets to that number, his fantasy managers will very much enjoy the next few months.

The struggles in terms of efficiency through the air have resulted in an increase in rush attempts (seven this season, already halfway to matching his season high). Those touches haven’t netted many fantasy points (35 yards and zero touchdowns), but it serves as further proof that this team wants to feed its alpha receiver as often as possible.

Jalen Tolbert, WR

Brandin Cooks was a weekly asset last season due to holding a firm grasp on the WR2 role in this offense. He wasn’t efficient (career-low in yards per route), and yet, he fell into eight touchdowns because he was consistently on the field and in advantageous spots.

That role is now Tolbert’s. The 2022 third-round pick out of South Alabama has produced over expectations in three straight games and has as positive of a long-term outlook as any receiver that isn’t universally rostered.

Cooks (knee infection) missed his first game of the season last week and has since been placed on IR. The veteran receiver wasn’t a top-70 receiver in Week 2, 3, or 4, and if not for a defensive error in Week 1 that resulted in a 21-yard score, he’d be 0-for-4.

The WR2 role in Dallas’ offense, which continues to operate at a top-10 pass rate over expectation level, is Tolbert’s for the taking, and this plus scoring environment spot is as good as any.

Dallas goes on bye next week. Tolbert is a Week 6 Band-Aid for now and could develop into something more, given the late-season schedule.

• Week 12 at Commanders
• Week 13 vs. Giants
• Week 14 vs. Bengals
• Week 15 at Panthers

On the whole, I’m bullish on the idea of Tolbert. You just need to be aware that the bye is approaching and that his spot on your roster could be fluid.

Sam LaPorta, TE

Let me walk you off the ledge.

Things aren’t as bad as they seem, I promise. The first four weeks of this season felt like an absolute disaster, but would you believe me if I told you there were a pair of top-12 finishes in there?

The TE position has been a mood ruiner for most of the season, but if you have LaPorta, I actually think you should be excited about where you stand. First of all, you’ve made it past the bye and now don’t have to worry about the headache that is streaming the position.

That may not sound like a big deal, but as someone who writes about this stuff for a living, I promise you that your mental well-being will be better with less time allotted to addressing the position. More importantly, a look underneath the hood of LaPorta paints a reasonable picture.

2023:

• 83.1% snap share
• +14.5% production over expectation
• 1.99 fantasy points per target

2024:

• 79% snap share
• +11.1% production over expectation
• 1.91 fantasy points per target

Coming out of the bye and facing a banged-up defense that is playing behind a pass-heavy, fast-moving offense — this is the perfect get-right spot. LaPorta sits atop my Week 6 tight end rankings, and I’m not apologizing for it.

Jake Ferguson, TE

Ferguson has caught at least six passes in all three games since his return to action, landing him as a top-eight PPR tight end in each of those contests.

My pitch on Ferguson this preseason was that he was a good bet as the No. 2 option in a high-volume passing attack, and that remains that leg to stand on. I still think that’s more likely than not to be the case, but Week 5 showed us that it may not need to be the case in order for Ferguson to be considered a Tier 1 tight end.

Tolbert had a great game against the Steelers (7-87-1 on 10 targets), and yet, Dallas’ tight end got home thanks to his stable and efficient role.

I’d wager that Ferguson’s target share moving forward is higher than the 17.1% we saw on Sunday night, making these 5-8 catch weeks a reasonable expectation — something that simply doesn’t exist at this position across the NFL.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

• Spread: Falcons -5.5
• Total: 49
• Falcons implied points: 27.3
• Panthers implied points: 21.8

Kirk Cousins, QB

Who says Thursday nights can’t be fun?

Cousins threw for a franchise-record 509 yards against the Buccaneers last week and was dominant throughout. Through 2.5 quarters, he had racked up 315 passing yards, thanks in large part to his willingness to feed his top playmakers.

During that hot start, Cousins funneled 73.5% of his targets to Drake London, Darnell Mooney, or Kyle Pitts, a distribution of looks in which fantasy managers drool over.

Getting the ball in the hands of your most talented teams? What a novel concept!

If you’re looking at Cousins’ profile from 10,000 feet up in the air, it’s not hard to poke one massive hole: mobility. In 2024, quarterbacks with the ability to produce on the ground, or at least scramble in a controlled manner behind the line of scrimmage, are the ones who are most consistent.

Cousins, obviously, is not that. This season, 94.4% of his pass attempts come from within the pocket, a rate that is beyond rare in today’s game. That’s my concern when it comes to labeling this veteran as a fantasy starter for the remainder of the season, but against the Panthers’ defense that ranks dead last in pressure rate (23.6%) and with extra time to prepare, I have no issue in considering him this week.

There’s naturally some risk in going this route, as a mismatch like this can always result in a run-heavy script. Combine that concern with the light schedule for some of the QBs in this general range (Joe Burrow at the Giants, Jordan Love vs. the Cardinals, and Jared Goff at the Cowboys, to name a few) and Cousins isn’t a must-start.

Andy Dalton, QB

Dalton was a QB1 in each of his first two starts this season, but he remembered he was on a Panthers team void of high-end talent last weekend in Chicago (4.9 yards per pass with zero scores). While I fear that the end could be near with Dalton as a usable option in 1QB formats, I’m okay if, in deeper leagues, you want to stay on this ride a little longer.

Among qualified quarterbacks this season, Dalton ranks third in quick pass rate, while Bryce Young ranks fifth. It’s no secret what Dave Canales wants to do with Carolina’s offense, and he should be able to find success in that manner against a Falcons defense that allows the highest completion percentage on those single-read, catch-and-release plays (82.8%; league average: 71.7%).

Dalton’s passer rating, 2024:

• Quick passes: 97.7
• Otherwise: 70.3

Let’s not get carried away and put Dalton inside the top 12 in a week that features plenty of favorable spots (I prefer his opposing number in this game and both signal-callers in the Lions/Cowboys game with ease, for example). However, stable production for those of you going through the Anthony Richardson experience or have been starting Patrick Mahomes/Sam Darnold weekly is viable.

If Dalton was cut in your league and you have Dak Prescott (Week 7 bye) or are generally patchworking the position together on a weekly basis, he gets the Commanders next week. The clock might hit midnight on the Red Rifle, but there is a two-week window in which I think you can extract value.

Bijan Robinson, RB

Robinson has played under 70% of the snaps in consecutive games after playing 81.7% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps through the first three weeks and now has been held under 80 yards of offense in back-to-back-to-back contests.

Is it time to worry?

No.

Personally, I define “worry” as the fretting of future performance. If you want to live in the past and mourn the matchups lost in weeks past due to underwhelming production from your RB1, be my guest, but that’s not “worrying” in my eyes.

As we look forward, there’s enough in Robinson’s profile to have me clinging to hope. If you spent your first-round pick on him, you were betting on his elite skill set, something we’ve seen glimpses of this season despite the underwhelming overall numbers. In terms of our custom elusive rating, Robinson is right where he was last season, and his splash-play potential has been evident with a 17+ yard touch in each of his past four games.

Also working in Robinson’s favor is Cousins’ play, which is causing trouble for opposing defenses. Sure, that’s a bit of a dual-edged sword — as Cousins plays better, Atlanta stands to commit less to the run — but I have my eye on the regressed loaded box rate.

Percentage of carries vs. 8+ man fronts:

• 2023: 32.2%
• 2024: 20.9%

It feels like only a matter of time until we get a big Robinson game, and this could be that performance. A little over a year ago, he made his professional debut against these Panthers and gained 83 yards while finding the end zone through the air. That’s a reasonable expectation in this game that should feature an RB-friendly game script.

Yes, I understand that it was Tyler Allgeier who opened the overtime period last week on the field and that he continues to be worked in as a consistent part of the Falcons’ offense. But if we are willing to acknowledge that Robinson’s production is on the very low end of expectations and that has resulted in Allgeier playing just 28% offensive snaps this season (2023: 31.9%), isn’t the team telling us that they are waiting for their lead back to find his form?

Tyler Allgeier, RB

With Robinson struggling to pay the fantasy bills, your reflex might be to jam Allgeier into your Flex spot in this plus matchup, but I’d be careful.

Allgeier has yet to reach double figures in the carry department this season. And while his seven red-zone touches look good on the surface, remember that four of them came in the Week 2 win over the Eagles.

Allgeier remains among the most valuable of the handcuff backs in our game and should remain rostered across all formats. If you’re in jail when it comes to injuries/byes, Flexing him can be done, but outside of that situation, I’m looking for upside elsewhere.

Chuba Hubbard, RB

The time has come, friends. Hubbard is no longer producing well “for a member of the Panthers.” He’s dominating by any standard. He has three straight games with at least 95 rushing yards, four receptions, and a touchdown.

• That’s a club that Christian McCaffrey is not a part of.
• That’s a club that Saquon Barkley is not a part of.
• That’s a club that Le’Veon Bell is not a part of.
• That’s a club that LaDainian Tomlinson is not a part of.

In fact, since 2008, the only other running backs to have three straight games checking all of those boxes are 2018 Ezekiel Elliott (Weeks 10-12) and 2018 James Conner (Weeks 5-9).

Hubbard has been a top-10 producer at the position in each of those weeks and very well could make it four straight in this matchup with a team that could allow this limited Panthers offense on the field with their 32nd-ranked third-down defense (48.5%, 10 percentage points short of where the league norm typically falls).

Hubbard’s projection carries a little lower of a floor than the running backs that routinely occupy my top 10, and that’s why he hasn’t moved up that high just yet. Still, he’s safely inside of my top 15 and my preferred option over more established names like Kenneth Walker III and the suddenly hot D’Andre Swift.

Drake London, WR

Do Right and Kill Everything.

London is finally being used/producing like his pedigree always hinted at. He’s seen his target count increase each week, and he’s scored in three of his past four after scoring just twice in 16 games a season ago.

I could tell you that if you extend his production over the past month for an entire season, we’d be looking at a player with 128 catches or that he’s producing 14.1% over expectations (first two NFL seasons: -10.1%). But those numbers package up what has happened and suggest that you should be optimistic moving forward.

What if I could take out the projecting and lay out why this WILL continue?

London’s targets are trending toward the middle of the field, which is where the efficient looks traditionally come (2024 heat map on the left, 2023 on the right).

This usage doesn’t happen by accident, not over a five-game stretch with a veteran quarterback.

For me, this isn’t a sell-high situation, it’s a buy-high one if you don’t roster London and an “enjoy the ride” spot if you’re fortunate enough to have him in your starting lineup.

For whatever reason, the Panthers have shut down London. He’s failed to reach 40 receiving yards in all four of his career games against Carolina, averaging under a yard per route (0.92) in the process. The skeptics will point to Atlanta’s WR1 simply having the number of the Bucs (10-172-0 last December against Tampa Bay) and last week being an aberration, but I’m not buying it.

I value an elite talent with strong usage over silly small sample numbers like those. I just wanted to mention them to dismiss them, as it’s likely that you’ll hear them at some point as you prepare to lock in your lineup.

We now have access to the version of London that we had hoped we’d see from the jump. This situation has unlocked the best version of the 23-year-old, and I’m already giddy about what he could do during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17: Raiders-Giants-Commanders).

Darnell Mooney, WR

Mooney’s Week 5 was an emotional rollercoaster. The Bucs had problems covering him all night, but he had a late drop that felt like a nail in the coffin as it stopped their comeback in its tracks.

As it turns out, they got another chance, and Cousins didn’t hesitate to go back to the well. Mooney has seen at least six targets with a catch of at least 24 yards in each of his past four games. He’s thriving in his role and taking advantage of his assignment by producing 11.7% over expectations (pacing for his first season above expectations of his career).

Mooney’s aDOT lines up with his career norm, but because of the stability under center, his production per target is a career-best. This isn’t a profile without flaws (the Falcons rank in the bottom half of the league in pass rate over expectation and his targets project to be the first cut should the overall pass attempts decline moving forward), but at this moment in time, he’s put himself in the weekly Flex discussion.

If you wanted to play him over every Colts receiver or every Bills receiver, I wouldn’t blame you in this soft matchup. He looks like a different player than the one we saw for four years in Chicago. Without him being pushed for the WR2 role, I don’t see the production falling off the cliff any time soon.

Diontae Johnson, WR

Last week (3-23-0) was Johnson’s first dud since Dalton took over and while I found it troubling, it was a more difficult matchup than what is on tap for this week.

That’s not to say that Johnson is going to be a top-10 receiver like he was in Dalton’s first two starts, but a low-end WR2 finish is a reasonable assumption against a Falcons defense that owns the second-lowest opponent aDOT this season (5.5).

Something that is also being overlooked in this game is the fact that it features two of the fastest-paced offenses in the league. I’m not suggesting that means we see a ton of points put on the board, but it could result in a high possession count, and if Johnson gets enough opportunities, he’s going to produce fine PPR numbers.

Xavier Legette, WR

The rookie earned a target on 27% of his route in Week 4, his first start in place of the injured Adam Thielen, but that impressive rate regressed to 8.3% last in Chicago and has him firmly off of starting radars at this point.

The kid deserves to remain rostered due to the breath of life that Dalton has breathed into this Carolina unit, but this is still a below-average offense that is going to struggle to support a third skill player.

Kyle Pitts, TE

After being silenced in Week 4 against the Saints, Pitts posted a 7-88-0 line on Thursday night and was a clear focal point of the opening script. September was a slog (105 yards across four games) and had me fielding questions about which waiver-wire tight ends were better bets moving forward.

I don’t think the Week 5 breakout is something that we can count on weekly, but it was a nice reminder of the upside in this profile, something that makes him a roster lock given the limited production at the position league-wide. I was encouraged by the season-high 77.7% snap participation, but there are still some tangible concerns that I can’t get out of my head.

This season, Pitts has failed to clear a 20% target-per-route rate in a game and his on-field target rate has been under 15.5% in four of five games thus far (2023 rate: 19%). The usage is still a concern, but the athletic profile creates a top-five upside at the position and, at tight end, you can’t be nitpicky.

If you roster Pitts, be thankful for Week 5 and plan on playing him every week moving forward. The duds will come, though the impact of the spike weeks will be greater.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants

• Spread: Bengals -3.5
• Total: 48.5
• Bengals implied points: 26
• Giants implied points: 22.5

Joe Burrow, QB

Burrow’s health was in question entering the season and now the only question we have surrounding Cincinnati’s centerpiece is if his back will get sore from carrying this much of a workload.

The Bengals’ defense has required Burrow to be near perfect to remain competitive – that’s a tough break for this franchise, but it’s gold for fantasy managers. Burrow has completed over 20 passes in every game this season and has a 40+ yard play in each of his past four. I like him to extend both of those streaks with the Giants allowing the fifth most yards per attempt on deep attempts (16.4) this season.

Burrow has a chance to be the first QB to have five multi-pass TD efforts this season and shouldn’t have an issue returning top-10 value for the fourth time this season. He’s my QB5 and has as good a shot at leading the position in scoring this week as anyone not named Lamar Jackson (vs. Commanders).

Daniel Jones, QB

I don’t know about you, but through five weeks, I didn’t think Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, and Lamar Jackson would be noted on the list of quarterbacks with fewer multi-pass touchdown pass games than Jones – but here we are.

Mr. Dimes has been a top-12 fantasy QB in three of the past four weeks, the most impressive being in Seattle on Sunday, a game in which he produced his best passer rating of the season despite not having Malik Nabers by his side.

Over the past three weeks, Jones has completed 70.4% of his passes while averaging 7.7 rush attempts per game. Isn’t that the type of profile we dream of?

I have Jone ranked as my QB14 this week with upward mobility (QB8-16 are a part of the same tier for me entering Week 6). The Bengals have the fourth-highest opponent touchdown pass rate (6.5%) and check in as the third-worst overall defense by EPA.

It wouldn’t shock me at all if this game cruised over the projected total and if that’s the case, Jones is going to pay off if you take a shot on him over Justin Fields (at Raiders) or Dak Prescott (vs. Lions).

Zack Moss, RB

Moss has at least three catches in three straight games and has a 12+ yard rush in all five weeks. The role in the passing game is likely to stick if for no other reason than this team seems resigned to their fate as a need-to-score-in-bunches-to-keep-up team (third in pass rate over expectation).

There is the potential for the game script to work in the favor of Moss and that is what could elevate him from ordinary Flex to extraordinary RB2 as the Giants allow the most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season

Chase Brown is nipping at his heels, but Moss was on the field for 67.7% of snaps last weekend and that role should be enough to justify starting him in all formats in this spot.

Chase Brown, RB

Brown has 32 touches and three scores over the past two weeks in an effort to earn more work (Weeks 1-3: 19 touches). Like Moss, he’s shown viable levels of versatility with multiple catches in four of five games, but the Bengals refuse to put two backs on the field at once.

That means Brown was on the field for just 32.3% of snaps last week and in a pass-centric attack, that’s not enough playing time to earn a starting grade. You should keep him rostered because he has made his presence known but don’t jump the gun and insert him into lineups just yet.

Devin Singletary, RB

One of Singletary’s strengths throughout his NFL career has been his availability. After four DNPs as a rookie with the Bills, he sat out just one game from 2020-23, making the groin injury that cost him last week noteworthy.

In September, Singletary had just one top-20 finish, a result of him averaging just 0.71 yards per carry before contact. There’s not much he can do about that, and with New York’s passing game not exactly threatening defenses, running room isn’t going to get much easier to find.

Assuming good health, Singletary will continue to be my highest-ranked running back in this offense, although that comes with faint praise. This is a plus matchup in every way imaginable (porous defense with an explosive offense that the Giants will be motivated to keep off the field) and yet, a top-20 ranking is no certainty.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB

The rookie looked solid last week as he assumed the lead role for Singletary (62% of snaps to Eric Gray’s 36.6%). He wasn’t used in the exact role of the vacated starter (Singletary in September: 71.9% of snaps), but he was the clear RB1 for this team in Week 5.

Games with 18+ Carries and a 5+ yards-gained percentage of at least 50%, 2024:

• Chuba Hubbard
• Kyren Williams
• Alvin Kamara
• James Conner
• Tyrone Tracy Jr.

That’s not a bad list to find your name on with one career start. The Giants are likely to extend Tracey’s role when Singletary is back and that’s a problem, as I’m unsure that this offense can sustain multiple running backs.

That’s a long-term worry. This week, the Giants get a Bengals defense that ranks fifth worst in the red zone, giving an efficient runner like this a good look at providing Flex value.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR

Bengals fans are allowed to be disappointed with one win through five weeks, but Chase owners can’t complain even a little bit. My WR1 for dynasty purposes has racked up 19 catches for 396 yards and five scores over his last three games, breaking coverage for a 40+ yard grab in each of those contests.

All of Chase’s efficiency metrics are on a career pace, helping mask a target rate that is actually underwhelming based on his track record. There are two ways of looking at that – either his target rate ticks up and he gains even further value or his per route production trends closer to his career rates and what we’ve seen through five weeks is the peak of his powers.

Regardless of where you stand on that statistical conundrum, Chase’s spot among the top-producing Flex players in our game is safe due to Cincinnati’s need to light up the scoreboard to remain competitive.

Tee Higgins, WR

It’s been a weird season by every measure for Higgins. He missed the first two weeks of the season, but it didn’t require much of a warm-up period (ala Brandon Aiyuk) as he’s earned 30 targets in his three games.

But what about the big plays? Higgins has 18 catches and yet, none of them have gained more than 17 yards (he averaged 15.6 yards per grab a season ago). His target share has spiked while his average depth of target sat at a career low, a trade-off that PPR fantasy managers should be happy with as it elevates his production floor.

Ceiling games like what we saw last weekend (14 targets and two touchdowns) aren’t going to happen often, but given the state of this defense and the comfort of Burrow, Higgins deserves to be locked into your lineup and always on your DFS radar.

Malik Nabers, WR

In Weeks 2-4, Nabers was the third-highest-scoring player in fantasy football (PPR). Not the third-highest-scoring receiver. Third highest scoring player. Not bad for an offense that ranked 22nd in yards per pass and 23rd in scoring over that stretch.

I was as concerned as anyone in terms of the limitations of this offense and its impact on Nabers, but some outlier talents can elevate above such a situation and it certainly looks like this rookie is part of that class.

He suffered a concussion late in Week 4 and sat out last week as a result. He was rumored to be trending up during the practice week, but he has been ruled OUT for Week 6.

Darius Slayton, WR

Slayton filled the Nabers role last week with great success in Seattle to the tune of a 8-122-1 line on a team-best 11 targets. It’s unlikely that his 28.9% on-field target share sustains, but his aDOT was nearly 2.5x that of Wan’Dale Robinson last week, proof that he is the one picking up the Nabers slack more than anyone else.

His lasting value is very much a question, but he profiles as a much add, even if you don’t need the depth now (Slayton is my WR30). Multiple missed weeks resulting from a concussion for Nabers is a major concern, especially for a team with little in the way of expectations this season.

Slayton is a flex play in most formats this week, ranking in the same class of projection as Michael Wilson (at GB) and Alec Pierce (at TEN).

Mike Gesicki, TE

After consecutive top-10 finishes, Geiscki hasn’t been a top-25 tight end in back-to-back weeks and serves as a great reminder that if you’re streaming the TE position, you need to fully commit.

I get it. It’s easy to fall in love with any taste of production from your tight end slot. In life, commitment issues are prohibitive, but if you’re rolling the dice weekly with this spot in your starting lineup, I think it’s actually a positive.

In those two recent down weeks, Burrow has thrown for 624 yards and seven scores – it’s not as if there aren’t yards being gained through the air in Cincinnati. With Erick All Jr. (fourth-round pick out of Iowa) soaking up some usage and this offense trending back to the hyper-concentration plan of years past, you can do better.

That’s not to say you can’t circle back to Gesicki with time. That’s the point. If you’re streaming tight ends, you owe it to yourself to reevaluate the spot every week, regardless of the production that took place the week before.

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets

• Spread: Bills -3
• Total: 41.5
• Bills implied points: 22.3
• Jets implied points: 19.3

Josh Allen, QB

A QB17 finish last week wasn’t exactly what you were hoping for in a matchup with the Texans, but this is a game of two things — inches and process. From a process standpoint, if you told me we were getting 30 pass attempts and 54 rushing yards from Allen, I would have ranked him as a top-three performer at the position, no questions asked.

The usage is never a concern here, and if he puts a little more touch on a first-quarter bomb to Mack Hollins, we are talking about a QB12 finish that is much more palatable. I’m not making excuses for his dismal Week 5 performance, I’m giving you fuel to feel just fine about relying on him moving forward.

For his career, Allen averages 46.1 rushing yards per game against the Jets and has reached 20 fantasy points in five of his past six against the divisional rival.

Do I worry a little that he’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in just one of his past five games on the road against the Jets, a defense that currently owns the sixth-best red-zone defense in the league? A little and that is why he is my QB6 this week and not QB2, but that’s not reason enough to bench him.

Aaron Rodgers, QB

All it took was a big deficit and desperation for the Jets to pick up the tempo and spike the pass rate last week in London (80.3% drop-back rate over the final 15 minutes). Can we get more of that, please?

Rodgers missed Garrett Wilson on what seemed to be an impromptu double move — I continue to see enough from this offense to make me think that an explosion spot is going to happen eventually but out of the blue.

There’s no point in chasing top-15 production from the future Hall of Famer until we actually see it. I think we could be trending in that direction (Rodgers’ pass attempt count has increased every week this season), but with the fifth-best yards-per-attempt pass defense on the other sideline, I’m not expecting much from Rodgers and this offense as a whole under the bright lights.

James Cook, RB

We had two concerns surrounding Cook entering this season — how high was his touch ceiling and would he get any opportunities in scoring position? Week 5 is only one data point, but 22 touches with a five-yard touchdown run is certainly a positive outcome for those of us hoping that Cook can be a weekly RB1 moving forward.

In a month, Cook has as many scores as he had in the first two years of his career. He’s not Derrick Henry 2.0, but with multiple avenues to production, his fantasy profile is as stable as you could have possibly asked for when you drafted him this summer.

Can he keep the good times rolling against a Jets defense that allowed the Vikings to run for just 82 yards on 30 attempts with no single rush picking up more than 10 yards? Asking for a repeat performance of Week 5 might be a little aggressive, but I feel good about him giving you top-20 numbers. In his last game against Gang Green, Cook piled up 102 yards from scrimmage with a score, giving us a path to greatness.

Buffalo has lost consecutive games and they’ve been exposed in a few spots, but the backfield isn’t a question mark.

Breece Hall, RB

I’m all for overthinking things, but I truly think Hall’s struggles (consecutive finishes outside of the top 35 running backs and only one week ranking better than RB12) are simple.

1.8 inches.

That’s how much yardage Hall is picking up before contact per carry this season. The thought process entering this season was that Rodgers would demand defensive respect and thus open up running lanes that Hall had yet to see in his young career.

That hasn’t been the case through five weeks. Not even close. On the bright side, the Bills allow the third most yards per carry before contact to running backs. Could this be the great right spot that Hall’s managers have been pleading for?

Hall was on the field for 74.6% of offensive snaps last week, his highest rate since Week 1 and he’s pacing for 95 targets. I think the role is still in the range of what you paid for this summer, you just need Rodgers to round into form.

Is that a safe bet? Far from it, but I’d rather take my chances there with a new head coach at the command than sell an elite talent at potentially a rock-bottom price.

Braelon Allen, RB

The rookie continues to see early work and has proven capable of making chunk plays (11+ yard gain in four straight), but until we see his role increased, Allen is more of a case in theoretical upside than anything that can be bet on this point.

Hall is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry this season and is struggling at levels that we thought impossible fewer than six weeks ago — and yet, Allen hasn’t reached a 36% snap share in a single game (Week 5: 25.4%). He remains a viable handcuff and is worthy of stashing over Hail Mary receivers that lack a path to mattering, but the hope for stand-alone value seems like a pipe dream after it once seemed nearly inevitable.

Keon Coleman, WR

The rookie was positioned to play well last week in Houston, and he eventually paid off for the spreadsheet savants with a 49-yard catch-and-run score with 4:20 left in the third quarter. Still, that was his only catch in a seemingly perfect spot.

And he may have stepped out of bounds on the splash play.

Twice.

I don’t mind returning to Coleman in a DFS showdown setting – the upside remains. Coleman’s aDOT is higher than the two featured options in this offense (Shakir and Dalton Kincaid) combined and the Jets own the second-highest opponent aDOT this season.

New York boasts a stingy defense, so why not swing for the fences?

Coleman’s profile comes preloaded with a low floor and that’s not going to change, but his role has slowly been trending in the right direction and I think there’s an upside in this profile to chase if you’re truly stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Khalil Shakir, WR

The slot machine who has an 89.1% catch rate since the beginning of last season has carried over his efficient ways into this new-look offense and profiles as the most reliable receiver in this Joe Brady-orchestrated attack.

An ankle injury kept him out of Week 5, so you’ll need to keep an eye on all reporting out of Buffalo this week before counting on Flexing him. Injuries are difficult to work around as it is and it gets more complicated when we’re talking about the final game of the week where you lack optionality if you elect to wait out official news.

Shakir has finished three of his four active weeks this season as WR31 or better. While the floor is very encouraging, this isn’t the type of player I’d make plans to wait on.

Stay tuned, we will keep you updated on the latest information regarding his status, but if we lack clarity going into the weekend, Shakir will fall way down my rankings, as the risk/reward equation makes him the type of receiver that I’ll be benching instead of risking a DNP.

Curtis Samuel, WR

Allen threw 30 passes in a game where the Bills were behind for the majority of the game and Samuel finished with a big goose egg in the receiving yards department (one catch on four targets) despite the absence of Shakir.

In August, there was hope that Joe Brady would unearth the version of Samuel that was a weekly asset with the Panthers in 2020. In October, there’s no need to hold onto that thought.

Garrett Wilson, WR

Managers with Wilson locked in weekly couldn’t have had a problem with the usage they saw last week, but for the greedy — it could have been better:

Not eactly what Wilson managers had in mind with 13 catches.

4th lowest on this list pic.twitter.com/ZPW3uAPaF3

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)

The connection with Rodgers remains something of a work in progress, but it’s not hard to see the path to league-winning upside.

Weeks 2-4: 19.2% on-field target share
Week 5: 39.3% on-field target share

Wilson posted a 13-101-1 stat line against the overly aggressive Vikings last week, earning quick looks from Rodgers left and right. Last week was his first finish better than WR29 this season, but it certainly won’t be his last. There are plenty of questions to be asked about this offense — Wilson’s role as a bonafide alpha is not among them.

Even in a tough matchup, Wilson is easily a top-15 receiver for me and a threat to break the slate.

Mike Williams, WR

Williams was on the field for a season-best 70.4% of New York’s offensive snaps last week in London. With some downfield work, he pushed his season aDOT north of 14 yards. On the profile side of things, those are good signs for a 6’4” target in an offense looking for viable options next to Wilson.

Considering that he has yet to finish a week better than WR45 as a Jet, though, I wouldn’t blame you if you weren’t excited about holding onto Williams.

I’m hanging in there.

Not this week (he’s not a top-50 receiver for me against a defense that has been elite at defending the deep ball for years and currently allows the third-fewest yards per long pass this season), but maybe next?

In Week 7, DJ Moore and CeeDee Lamb managers will be looking for a one-week fill-in option. And while the matchup with the Steelers may seem intimidating, they rank 22nd in yards allowed per deep pass through five weeks, giving Williams some one-play upside if his playing time continues to trend in the right direction.

Williams has yet to produce numbers despite the increase in snaps, and that has him sitting on waiver wires. He’s not a must-add, but he’s free now and will likely offer at least something of a viable ceiling next week.

If you’re the type that plays chess while your league mates play checkers, the breadcrumbs of an increase in his role could lead to something special at the perfect time — up to this point, the Rams and Jaguars are the two worst downfield pass defenses in the league and they just so happen to face the Jets in Weeks 15-16.

Allen Lazard, WR

Every week that Lazard produces, a spreadsheet somewhere breaks.

Lazard grades out as an ordinary receiver in almost every metric, and yet … #vibes.

I wish I could explain it. Rodgers obviously trusts him and that’s enough, but counting on him consistently is dangerous. He’s averaging just 37.8 receiving yards over his past four games and, for the season, his yards per route are below his career average.

In Week 5, he had two more air yards than he had in the three games before. For me, that’s more of a red flag than an encouraging note because Wilson and Williams project as more viable threats down the field.

Lazard (WR27 this season) has scored in the majority of his games this season, and that means I’ve been wrong more than I’ve been right up to this point. That said, you should be warned — when this game kicks off, it will have been 377 days since he last caught a TD pass in an even-numbered week.

Is that predictive? Of course not, but nothing in this profile makes much sense to me, so I thought I’d give you an alternative method of research. For those curious, the Jets play two upside offenses over the course of their next three odd-numbered weeks (Houston in Week 9 and Indianapolis in Week 11).

Dalton Kincaid, TE

There are simply no two ways about it — Kincaid has been a disaster for those of us who thought he was a bargain at this ADP this summer, assuming that he had a chance to lead the position in fantasy points this season.

His next game with 50 receiving yards will be his first this season and, despite playing in an offense that has scored 142 points this season, he’s been held without an end-zone target in four of five games.

But wait, what’s this?

Kincaid has a 25+ yard reception in three straight games and, over that stretch, has an 11.6 aDOT (Weeks 1-2: -0.6). Now, the average depth of target obviously isn’t everything, but at the tight end position, any level of downfield upside is significantly appealing.

I’m less bullish on Kincaid than I was six weeks ago, but I remain sold on the thought that he is far better than his current numbers suggest and that he’ll be an asset moving forward. There aren’t many TEs I’d look to acquire in this year of brutality at the position — Kincaid (10 catches on 11 targets against the Jets last season) is a rare exception.

Tyler Conklin, TE

We’ve spent plenty of brainpower through five weeks trying to identify who the second receiver in this offense is. I’ve been on the “Mike Williams is trending up” train while others have been preaching the confidence Rodgers has in Allen Lazard.

Might it just be Conklin?

The big tight end has seen his on-field target share increase in three consecutive weeks, catching 15 balls over that stretch with a pair of 20+ yard receptions.

He’s not a threat to set the fantasy world ablaze, but he’s got a consistent role (at least 28 routes run in every game this season) and seems to have the eye of his Hall of Fame QB, something we saw evidence of by way of a fourth-quarter end-zone target last week in the middle of triple coverage.

Like it or not, Conklin has established a reasonable fantasy floor and can be used with confidence this week, especially if you believe the game script works in his favor with the Bills jumping out to a lead.