The USA soccer team has already clinched its spot in the Round of 32 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but its opponents are yet to be decided. The USMNT did their bit by winning their group with a game to spare, ensuring they will go into “Match 81” and setting themselves up to place one of the top-eight third-placed teams.
This is where things get somewhat complicated, because which third-placed team faces the USMNT depends on which combination of teams makes up those eight best third-placed teams. In total, there are 495 different combinations of third-placed teams and outcomes across the 12 groups, so there is still a lot to be decided.
With the help of the PFSN FIFA World Cup Simulator, let’s examine the potential opponents for the USMNT in the Round of 32.
Which Third-Placed Teams Could Face the USA in Santa Clara?
Based on the structure outlined by FIFA before the tournament, the USMNT’s Round of 32 opponents could come from any of the following five groups: B, E, F, I, or J.
From there, we can narrow things down a little more. If a team from Group B is among the eight best third-placed teams, they are extremely likely to be the USA’s opponents. Of the 330 scenarios in which a team from Group B progresses in the third-placed ladder, 329 of them see that team face the USA in Santa Clara. The 330th scenario would pit a team from Group I against the USA.
That leaves 165 scenarios in which a Group B team does not make it among the top eight third-placed teams. In 64 of those scenarios, the opponents would come from Group J; in 51, from Group I (52 in total); in 39, from Group E; and in 11, from Group F.
Using our FIFA World Cup Simulator, we ran 200,000 simulations to calculate the likelihood of the USMNT’s Round of 32 opponent:
- Bosnia & Herzegovina (33.5% – Group B)
- Qatar (33.2% – Group B)
- Algeria (9.8% – Group J)
- Senegal (9.0% – Group I)
- Ivory Coast (4.5% – Group E)
- Austria (9.0% – Group J)
- Ecuador (2.7% – Group I)
- Sweden (1.7% – Group F)
- Iraq (1.4% – Group I)
- Curaçao (1.1% – Group E)
- Japan (0.4% – Group F)
The answer may become apparent fairly quickly, as Bosnia and Qatar face each other tomorrow (Wednesday). Both teams have one point so far and know that a win is vitally important to their chances of making it to the knockouts.
Our simulations show that Bosnia and Qatar reach the knockouts in more than 99.9% of simulations, in which they win. The only scenario in which Bosnia and Qatar win and do not face the USA is if the third-placed teams from Groups A, C, D, and F fail to qualify. That is still possible, but with third-placed teams from Groups C, D, and F already on three points, you would expect at least one of them to qualify.
In contrast, with a draw, Bosnia has less than a 0.5% chance of making it, with Qatar’s chance at 0% as they would finish fourth in that event.
In the event of a draw, things become a lot more interesting. Algeria already has three points, which could be enough to qualify, but certainly not guaranteed. Senegal is on zero points but faces Iraq, which is also on zero points. The Ivory Coast is on three points and faces the “minnows” of their group in Curaçao, so they will feel confident of at least getting to four points.
Things will become much clearer on Wednesday as Bosnia face Qatar, and Groups A and C both also come to a conclusion. If Bosnia or Qatar win and Scotland reach four or more points, it looks pretty certain that Bosnia or Qatar will head to Santa Clara. A draw means we know that Group B almost certainly will not provide the opponent and attentions turn to Groups D to F on Thursday to see if an answer becomes clear.
