The Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs and the Seattle Seahawks’ Kenneth Walker III both appear to be in mid-season role transitions that could certainly differentiate the remainder of their 2023 campaigns from the first half of their respective seasons.
Should fantasy football managers consider a one-for-one trade involving the two talented backs?
Should You Trade Jahmyr Gibbs for Kenneth Walker III in Week 10?
The PFN Trade Analyzer leaves no doubt as to whether it’s worth trading Gibbs for Walker — the answer via the analyzer is a resounding yes.
Walker’s trade value of 47.0 far outpaces Gibbs’ 29.5. The disparity seems largely a byproduct of the roles both backs have filled on their respective squads in the first half of the season and Walker’s more established body of work at the NFL level overall.
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However, my analysis goes contrary to this recommendation. My view on the two players naturally involves a bit of projection and faith in what is likely to unfold the rest of the way, as well as each player’s upside.
Walker is undeniably a talented player who has a reasonably good chance of remaining in a clear lead-back role the rest of the way. However, that’s far from a guarantee when considering rookie backfield mate Zach Charbonnet has workhorse-back-worthy 6-foot-1, 220-pound dimensions he complements with above-average burst.
Charbonnet has slightly outpaced Walker in snaps in Seattle’s last two games, and although part of that has been due to the game script, it’s accurate to say anything Walker can do on the field, Charbonnet can match or perhaps even surpass.
In turn, while Gibbs’ backfield mate David Montgomery is certainly an accomplished and experienced asset, there’s no comparing the athleticism of the two. Even factoring in Montgomery’s pair of 100-yard efforts thus far, he’s still averaging just 4.1 yards per carry and has never topped 4.3 in any season.
And, even though Montgomery has proven an accomplished receiver in some of his past Bears seasons, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson doesn’t seem to favor utilizing him much in that capacity — Montgomery has logged a nominal 10 targets through five contests.
Part of the reason for the latter is certainly Gibbs. The rookie first-round pick already had four- and seven-catch tallies on his resume before Montgomery’s current two-game absence due to a rib injury thrust Gibbs into the top role, an opportunity the latter has made very good use of.
Gibbs’ Week 8 nationally televised breakout performance of 189 total yards on 31 touches naturally stands out in that regard; however, it’s worth noting Gibbs also posted an impressive 126 total yards and a touchdown in a negative game script in Week 7 against the Ravens, thanks in large part to his 9-87 line through the air.
Dan Campbell knows he’s on the precipice of returning the Lions to the postseason, which would be the biggest feather in his cap yet during what has already been a very successful coaching tenure.
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As the stakes get higher with each passing week, Campbell will want his most talented assets on the field, especially with the team’s pass-catching corps not having much reliable depth behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, and Sam LaPorta.
Gibbs checks off all the necessary boxes on the playmaking spectrum, as he vividly demonstrated in Week 8 against the Raiders. As such, if I’m a Gibbs manager, I’m holding steady and hopefully leveraging him to a championship.
Jahmyr Gibbs Fantasy Value Rest of Season
Given everything cited above about Gibbs and his likely role for the rest of the season, I see his value as much more elevated than might be assumed with Montgomery’s return likely imminent.
There’s good reason to believe the workload of the two backs could well flip from what it was in the first half of the season, considering Gibbs is exponentially more of a threat than his veteran teammate.
That transition was likely to happen at some point this season, but it’s been accelerated with Gibbs’ performance in Montgomery’s absence.
Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Value Rest of Season
Walker’s potential blemishes have already been highlighted. He could well outpace Charbonnet in touches for the remainder of the season, but there’s certainly a better-than-zero chance he doesn’t, especially given recent trends.
Walker also has much less of a pass-catching role than Gibbs. He has only 15 catches in eight games despite frequently having a much bigger role than the rookie in the first half of the season.
And, Walker has largely leveraged volume to get to solid fantasy performances, as he’s averaging only 4.2 yards per carry.
In contrast, Gibbs is averaging 5.3 yards per tote, and despite 50 fewer carries, he has only one fewer run of 20+ yards than the five Walker has recorded.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!