Houston Texans running back Rex Burkhead just might have carved out enough of a role to keep him relevant in fantasy football leagues. What is Burkhead’s current ADP, and should managers select him at that price in fantasy drafts?
Rex Burkhead ADP | Is he worth his current price in fantasy drafts?
Burkhead’s ADP is well outside the top 60 running backs, which is about how many get drafted in a standard-sized 12-team league. He is our consensus RB66.
Unfortunately, fantasy managers cannot justifiably rely on ADP data when it comes to Burkhead. For the entire summer, he was irrelevant. Only recently has his ADP started to spike, but far too late to really move it in aggregated data.
Just one week ago, I wrote about how Burkhead’s fantasy outlook was grim and said there was no reason to draft him. Well, that was last week. We must react to and be willing to change our opinions based on new information.
The Texans released Marlon Mack ahead of final roster cuts (and then cut him again from the practice on Labor Day). A very muddy backfield is suddenly quite clear. Rookie Dameon Pierce is the RB1. He will operate on early downs and at the goal line. Burkhead is the RB2 and will be the primary passing-down back.
Rex Burkhead’s projected fantasy value in 2022
The good news for Burkhead is he has a secure role and one that is unlikely to change. The bad news is, well, he’s still Burkhead.
Burkhead has been in the NFL since 2014. Over that span, he’s had exactly two fantasy-relevant seasons. Burkhead averaged 13 PPR fantasy points per game with the Patriots in 2017 and 10.8 ppg in 2020.
However, it’s not all negative when it comes to Burkhead. In 2021, Burkhead averaged just 6.5 ppg. While he was irrelevant most of the season, he did have a moment in Week 16 where he scored 28.9 fantasy points. The mere fact that Burkhead is capable of that sort of upside keeps him at least hovering around the fantasy radar.
By no means is Burkhead someone fantasy managers should be aggressively targeting. He’s merely someone who has proven he can produce if given the volume. So if Burkhead finds himself in a situation where he’s getting that volume again, fantasy managers are equipped with the knowledge that Burkhead is a worthwhile asset.
Impact of the Texans’ depth chart on Burkhead’s fantasy value
The first thing the Texans did with their backfield in the offseason was extend Burkhead. We’ve seen a bunch of running backs get cut over the past two weeks. Yet, at no point was the 32-year-old’s job in jeopardy. His $2.1 million guaranteed suggested he would make the team, and he did.
The Texans’ two big moves at running back were signing Mack and drafting Pierce. They also signed Dare Ogunbowale, who made the team over Mack.
Ogunbowale is nothing more than a depth piece. This backfield is now set to be a two-man committee between Pierce and Burkhead. They will combine to handle 90% of the touches. That’s great news for fantasy, as it clears up the prior ambiguity.
Of course, being a running back on a bad team isn’t the greatest. Nevertheless, starting RBs have value. Burkhead had value at one point last season. Pierce has RB2 upside as the starter, and Burkhead will have RB3 weeks as the pass catcher.
The Texans will spend a fair amount of time trailing this season. We may see a lot of Burkhead when they are playing catch-up in the second half.
This is also a team with a relatively weak wide receiver group. It’s Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins, and a bunch of journeymen. Burkhead could very well finish third on this team in targets. That’s not nothing.
I don’t expect Burkhead to be drafted in the majority of fantasy leagues. But I do expect him to make appearances on waiver wire columns as teams deal with injuries/bye weeks and find themselves in need of a guy who won’t get them zero.
Burkhead is going to have weeks where he catches 5+ passes. If you happen to start him that week, he will be a very useful member of your lineup. Pass on Burkhead in fantasy drafts, but monitor him throughout the season and be ready to pick him up if you need a floor-based lineup filler.