Baker Mayfield has rarely needed help finding a chip on his shoulder. Entering 2026, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback believes the rest of the NFL has supplied one anyway.
Mayfield told reporters Tuesday that he is energized by projections forecasting a step backward for Tampa Bay. After missing the playoffs at 8 and 9 last season, the Buccaneers are again entering September with modest outside expectations.
Baker Mayfield Says Buccaneers Will ‘Shock a Lot of People’
Mayfield’s confidence surfaced when he was asked about Tampa Bay opening the season on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals.
“You get your guys, and it’s just the Bucs against everybody else in that city you’re going to,” Mayfield said. “And so I think it’s a good opportunity for us against the Bengals. And yeah, I think we’re going to shock a lot of people this year. So I’m excited to just get on the road and do that.”
Stroud followed by asking whether Mayfield was fired up to prove people wrong again.
“Hell yeah, I am,” Mayfield said. “Everybody’s picking us probably to have a losing record, so we’ll see.”
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“Everybody” is doing some quarterback-sized rhetorical work, but Mayfield has evidence for the underdog case. Tampa Bay’s win total sits at 8.5, and the under has been favored in recent odds. ESPN analyst Mike Clay, however, projected nine wins in May, so pessimism is not unanimous.
Mayfield has built his Tampa Bay tenure around exceeding expectations. He arrived in 2023 on a one-year deal after stops in Cleveland, Carolina and Los Angeles, then helped the Buccaneers win two consecutive NFC South titles before last season’s stumble.
Buccaneers Have Reasons To Hear the Doubters
The Buccaneers finished 8-9 and lost the NFC South on a three-way tiebreaker with Carolina and Atlanta; they would have won the division outright in a head-to-head tie with the Panthers had the Falcons lost in Week 18, ending a four-year run as division champions.
The roster has changed considerably. Franchise receiving leader Mike Evans signed with the San Francisco 49ers, longtime linebacker Lavonte David retired, and cornerback Jamel Dean joined the Pittsburgh Steelers. Defensive tackle Vita Vea requested a trade in July after extension talks stalled. Second-year receiver Emeka Egbuka has a toe sprain, though the team expects him ready for Week 1.
Mayfield is coming off a quieter season statistically, one he played through hurt. He revealed on Netflix’s “Quarterback” that he sprained his MCL and PCL and suffered a bone bruise in Week 2, then aggravated it in Week 7, and he later injured his non-throwing shoulder. He completed 63.2% of his passes for 3,693 yards, 26 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. PFN’s QB Impact metric gave him a 74.4 score, ranking 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks.
That was a sharp decline from his 86.1 QB Impact score and No. 4 ranking in 2024, when he threw a career-high 41 touchdowns.
Mayfield is also entering the final year of his contract after he and Tampa Bay failed to reach a long-term extension this summer. That gives him personal stakes alongside the team’s attempt to rebound.
The Buccaneers open Sept. 13 in Cincinnati. If Mayfield gets his way, the first surprise will not be that Tampa Bay heard the predictions. It will be how quickly the Bucs make people reconsider them.
