The fantasy football outlook of the Seattle Seahawks discusses the upward-trending WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, while the Arizona Cardinals‘ fantasy preview takes a look at what a strong Week 17 means for the value of rookie WR Michael Wilson.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
- Spread: Seahawks -2.5
- Total: 48
- Seahawks implied points: 25.3
- Cardinals implied points: 22.8
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith: Did the regression monster take a bite out of Smith in 2023, or was 2022 simply a crazy outlier, thus making this season more representative of what our expectations should have been?
In Week 7 against Arizona, Smith was QB17. He hasn’t been better than QB15 in 11 of 14 games this season, despite the superior talent around him.
The Cardinals’ matchup is a strong one. Bet on him in the props market if you want, but I’m not risking my fantasy season on a player I don’t trust and who hasn’t given me a reason to change my mind on any sort of consistent basis.
Kyler Murray: For the third time in his shortened season, Murray was a top-10 QB last week. I don’t love his odds of repeating that success this week (my QB13) against a Seahawks team that plays an umbrella form of defense – one that should limit Murray splash play count.
The ceiling is always there for a player with the skill set of Murray, but I just think you can find safer options with more to play for in this specific week.
Running Backs
Kenneth Walker III: The promising back has seen 13 targets over his past four games (seven targets in his four games prior to the injury per the Week 18 Cheat Sheet), and that sort of usage in this plus matchup makes him a must-play.
In Week 7 against the Cardinals, Walker was the RB18.
MORE: Fantasy Injury Update — Kenneth Walker III, AJ Dillon, and Aaron Jones Impacting Week 18 Waiver Wire
This season, the Cardinals are allowing the fourth-most yards per carry and the fourth-highest opponent rush rate over expectations. Due to the regression of Smith, the Seahawks figure to lean on the ground game, and that means a big volume spot for K9 against a vulnerable front.
Zach Charbonnet: I think there might be something here long-term, but Charbonnet hasn’t finished better than RB40 in four straight games. His struggles come on the heels of four straight top-35 finishes.
The role just doesn’t match the talent – not yet. We might get there with time, but you can safely sit him on your bench for the final week of 2023.
James Conner: The veteran back has finished each of his past four games as an RB1, and he figures to finish the season with another useful performance against a defense that allows 53.5% of touchdowns to come on the ground – easily the highest rate in the league.
The 28-year-old Conner is averaging a career-best 4.9 yards per carry, but his catch total is only half of what it was last season. Him getting to the top 10 isn’t something I’d bet on, but a finish inside the top 24 sounds good to me.
Wide Receivers
DK Metcalf: With 95+ yards or a touchdown in six of his past eight games, Metcalf is to Smith what Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans was to QB Baker Mayfield earlier this season before WR Chris Godwin came alive.
He is the bail-out option that is so physically gifted that he can turn 50/50 targets into massive fantasy days. You can feel better than good in continuing to ride Metcalf as your fantasy season comes to a close.
Tyler Lockett: The veteran receiver hasn’t scored since the first half of November and has failed to clear even 30 receiving yards in half of his games since Thanksgiving.
In Week 7, he finished as WR50. There’s no way you can feel good about playing Lockett at this point. He hasn’t had a 25-yard catch since mid-October and just hasn’t shown us the efficiency that we’ve come to assume from the Kansas State product.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Rookie receivers often take time to adjust to the speed of the professional game, and JSN is trending in the right direction in terms of opportunity count. The talent isn’t in question here, and with the targets coming at a reasonably consistent rate, Smith-Njigba should have your interest.
Add in the fact that the ‘Hawks are playing with motivation while facing a defense that is on a borderline historic pace for the number of red-zone trips allowed — now we are talking.
MORE: PFN’s FREE NFL Playoff Predictor
JSN saw a 29.2% target share in the first meeting against the Cards, and while that game was played without Metcalf, it doesn’t hurt to have proof of concept when it comes to his ability to find space in this specific matchup.
Michael Wilson: The 6’2” rookie saw a pair of end zone targets last week in Philadelphia and scored his third touchdown in the process. He is going to be a valuable asset in the future, and he’s a fine DFS punt play, but outside of that, you don’t need to worry about him in Week 18.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride: Seven straight games with five-plus catches is something some very good tight ends go an entire career without doing, but not McBride.
No Cardinal had 50 receiving yards when these teams first met, and while McBride’s 12 catches over the past two weeks have netted just 79 yards, the production floor is nothing short of elite.
Due to the absence of a target-earner playing opposite of him, McBride carries, in my opinion, the greatest floor and ceiling this week.
He’s my TE1 this week and leads the second tier at the position in my early 2024 rankings.
Trending Start/Sit Searches
Did you know that we have a Start/Sit Optimizer here at Pro Football Network? It’s completely free to use, and it allows you to enter up to six players to find the best option to plug into your starting lineup.
It also allows us to see the most popular trending searches. We’ve jotted some of them down here to help provide some clarity.
Should You Start Jaylen Warren or James Conner?
I think these two backs hold a similar value, despite being in completely different situations, so give me the younger back playing for a motivated team in Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Warren.
While Conner’s usage has been strong of late, I’m OK with fading an RB with over 1,300 career touches in Week 18 of a lost season for his Cardinals. Conner may offer the higher floor, but his advantage in that regard isn’t enough to outweigh what I view as a significant difference in his ceiling.
Should You Start George Pickens or Jaxon Smith-Njigba?
Talk about a duo with a wide range of outcomes.
I’ll side with Pittsburgh Steelers WR George Pickens with the thought being that his path to reasonable volume is more clear, and he’s likely to get the majority of his looks against backups.
Pickens has a catch of 35+ yards in four of his past six games, and he possesses the big-play upside that gives him more Flex appeal this week over a rookie in Smith-Njigba, who has seen a total of 13 targets over his past three games.
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