The Seattle Seahawks were briefly a worst-to-first story this season, ripping off four straight wins to gain control of the NFC West lead.
However, back-to-back home losses against Super Bowl contenders in the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers crippled the Seahawks’ playoff hopes. The door wasn’t closed on Seattle claiming the division, but the Seahawks needed help despite their Week 17 win against the Chicago Bears.
Unfortunately for the Seahawks, things didn’t break their way in Week 17, and as a result, they have been eliminated from the playoffs.
What Was the Seattle Seahawks’ Playoff Picture Entering Week 17?
The 9-7 Seahawks trailed the 10-6 Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. Entering Week 17, those were the only two teams that could win the division, as the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16.
The Rams won the first matchup between the teams in Seattle in Week 9. The rematch is in Los Angeles in Week 18, which would have been a must-win for the Seahawks if the Rams didn’t clinch in Week 17.
However, that alone still wouldn’t have been enough as the Seahawks would have needed at least one other scenario to go its way, and due to the Rams’ win over the Cardinals in Week 17, the Seahawks needed to hit a very unlikely parlay.
As expected, they did not hit it and have been officially eliminated from the playoffs.
Did the Seahawks Have Any Clinching Scenarios in Week 17?
No, but the Seahawks had the chance to be eliminated from playoff contention even after their win vs. the Chicago Bears in Week 17. Since the Rams won, if any combination of four of either Washington, Minnesota, San Francisco, Buffalo, Cincinnati, or Cleveland won, they would be eliminated.
- LAR win + at least 3.5 wins from WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, and CLE
As we saw play out, that did, in fact happen. Here are the results of those games:
- Cincinnati defeated Denver, 30-24
Miami defeated Cleveland, 20-3.- Minnesota defeated Green Bay, 27-25
- Washington defeated Atlanta, 30-24
Detroit defeated San Francisco, 40-34
Yes, it’s complicated, but it relates to the strength of the victory tiebreaker. In the event that the Seahawks and Rams both finish 10-7 (with Seattle beating Los Angeles in Week 18), they’ll be tied on each of the first four tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head: split 1-1
- Division Record: 4-2 each
- Common Games: 8-6 each
- Conference Record: 6-6 each
If that occurs, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, in which the Rams had a significant edge in that category entering Week 17. Entering this week’s slate of games, the teams that Los Angeles had defeated combined for 60 wins, compared to 51 combined wins for Seattle’s defeated opponents.
Thus, since that group of six teams combined for at least 3.5 wins in Week 17, the Rams are guaranteed to finish with a higher strength of victory regardless of what happens in Week 18.
The Rams beat the Vikings and Buffalo Bills and swept the San Francisco 49ers. Meanwhile, the Seahawks lost to both Minnesota and Buffalo and went 1-1 vs. San Francisco). Therefore, those three teams winning helps LA’s strength of victory.
The Washington Commanders (vs. Atlanta Falcons), Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Denver Broncos), and Cleveland Browns (vs. Miami Dolphins) all face teams that the Seahawks beat but the Rams either lost to or didn’t face. So, those three teams winning hurts the Seahawks’ strength of victory.
Since at least four of those six teams won, Los Angeles officially clinched strength of victory and eliminated Seattle before their Week 18 tilt kicks off.
Even if the Rams didn’t clinch strength of victory this week, they would have had another week to gain those 3.5 wins. So, Los Angeles would have almost certainly clinched the tiebreaker in Week 18 if they didn’t this week. In other words, while it wasn’t official, the Rams all but clinched the division in Week 17.
How Did the Seahawks’ Week 17 Result Impact Their Playoff Scenarios?
It’s bizarre to say, but the Seahawks’ Thursday night win in Chicago did little to impact their playoff fate.
The only benefit of the win is that it sustained Seattle’s very faint hopes of winning the strength of victory tiebreaker over LA. However, as the above just outlined, it was very unlikely that Seattle would win that tiebreaker no matter what.
Thus, Seattle’s season basically came down to the Rams-Cardinals game. Had Arizona won, next week’s Rams-Seahawks game would have been a winner-take-all matchup. But since the Rams won, the Seahawks needed to hit a crazy parlay in order to make the playoffs.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.