Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys are on a three-game winning streak and have beaten the spread as favorites by more than a touchdown in each of those games. In tonight’s Seattle Seahawks vs. Cowboys matchup, Dallas is once again a heavy favorite.
Should you lay the points with Dallas or buy low on a Seahawks team that has lost three of its last four games? Before we dive into the Seahawks vs. Cowboys predictions, let’s check out the betting odds.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines
When the Seahawks vs. Cowboys odds first opened, Dallas was a 6.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line. Then, after the results of the Thanksgiving games, the spread moved up a point before it increased even further, with the Cowboys being favored by as many as 9.5 points at some sportsbooks. For the season, Dallas has been dominant in these spots, as they’re 5-0 SU and ATS as a home favorite and have covered by an average of 18.7 points.
All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Seahawks +330, Cowboys -420
Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys Predictions
Bearman: Much like the narrative following the Miami Dolphins around, the Cowboys have been beating up on below .500 teams, with all eight wins coming against teams with a losing record.
In the two tougher games, they got blown out by the San Francisco 49ers and lost a close one to their division rival, Philly. I do think the Cowboys, like the Dolphins, are contenders, but they also have to beat some good teams before I lay nine points with them.
Recent wins have been impressive for Prescott and the Cowboys, but they also came against the Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, and New York Giants. Seattle is coming off back-to-back losses and will need this one a whole lot more than Dallas, and they are better than they played last week, so I will take the nine points.
Pick: Seahawks +9 (-112 at DraftKings)
Blewis: My picks for these standalone games have been becoming really predictable, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Unders this season are 29-9 in prime-time games, and there are other reasons why I’m leaning in this direction tonight as well.
For one, I’m worried about the Seahawks’ offense going against this Cowboys’ defense on the road. The Cowboys are a top-five defense in the NFL, and in the Seahawks’ three games against other elite defenses (Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, 49ers), they scored a combined 40 points for an average of 13.33.
To make matters worse, seven of those points were from a defensive touchdown against the 49ers, and they benefited from P.J. Walker’s turnovers against the Browns. Against Dak Prescott, who has the lowest percentage of turnover-worthy plays this season, that will not be the case.
I’m expecting Geno Smith to struggle in this game as well, as he did in his previous three games against elite defenses:
- Against the Browns: 254 yards, 6.9 YPA, 2 TD, 2 INT, 53.4 QBR
- Against the Ravens: 157 yards, 5.6 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT, 13.9 QBR
- Against the 49ers: 180 yards, 6.7 YPA, 0 TD, 1 INT, 14.9 QBR
Another factor here is that both teams played on Thanksgiving, meaning they’ll each be coming off extended rest. According to Evan Abrams at The Action Network, when both teams have had eight days of rest or more, the under is 104-47-1 since 2018 (28-5 this season), including a 15-game streak.
This also might be a look-ahead game for the Cowboys, who host the Philadelphia Eagles next week. If they have a big lead late in the second half, they’ll be more likely to take their foot off the gas than in recent weeks.
Pick: Under 47.5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Prescott is playing at a high level, and that has elevated every member of this passing game, but the flashy names are the players who have seen player prop numbers spike the most.
Left out of that mix (to a degree) is Jake Ferguson, the very stable tight end that moves the chains instead of landing on SportsCenter’s Top 10. Through 12 weeks, the Seahawks own a rare defense that ranks top 10 in pressure rate despite a bottom-10 blitz rate. Due to that success, they own the ninth-lowest opponent aDOT. If short passes are the name of the game tonight…
- Ferguson: 5.98 aDOT
- CeeDee Lamb: 10.98 aDOT
- Brandin Cooks: 12.46 aDOT
MORE: NFL Playoff Odds 2023
That puts Ferguson in a good spot. Another overlooked part of this matchup is the low blitz rate. That not only means the Seahawks can allocate more resources to trying to cover up these game-breaking receivers, but it also means that Ferguson (84.8% route participation on Thanksgiving) won’t be asked to block or chip, thus freeing him up to focus on his route running.
Picks: Ferguson over 3.5 catches (-140 at FanDuel), over 34.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Katz: Last week, we hit on Zach Charbonnet under 76.5 rushing + receiving yards. He played 88% of the snaps, touched the ball 18 times, and totaled 58 yards. As a result, the books have lowered his line this week … but not by enough.
The Cowboys allow 3.8 YPC to running backs, the eighth-fewest in the league. They allow 25 receiving yards per game to backs, the fifth-fewest in the league. The Seahawks are nine-point underdogs. If the game goes as expected, they will have to abandon the run sooner than they’d like.
I like Charbonnet. He’s a talented player. But he’s getting saddled with tough matchup after tough matchup filling in for the injured Kenneth Walker III. Seventy yards is asking a lot. Look for a similar line to last week, keeping him under this number.
Pick: Zach Charbonnet Under 69.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
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