Are you ready for Thursday Night Football? No, I’m not talking about the game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Miami Dolphins. I’m talking about North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh — an ACC showdown that happens to set up a monumental duel between top 2022 NFL Draft quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell. So, I’ll ask again: Are you ready for Thursday Night Football? Let’s get into the details.
State of the 2022 NFL Draft QB class in Week 11 of CFB
If you were holding out hope that a quarterback would pull away from the pack this year, you might want to lessen your expectations. We’re over halfway through the 2021 college football season, and the QB class might be even more muddied than it was in August.
Most of the original names still exist in the top group, but there’s virtually no separation across the board, and no quarterback is commanding consensus Round 1 hype. Matt Corral might be the favorite at this point, but even he is far from a flawless prospect. The same goes for Malik Willis and Carson Strong. Meanwhile, other previous contenders like Spencer Rattler, JT Daniels, and Kedon Slovis have plummeted into the void.
UNC’s Sam Howell has more or less kept his standing as a QB1 contender. Meanwhile, Pitt’s Kenny Pickett has emerged from the abyss as a new challenger for Round 1 real estate. With the two being so close together, their duel tonight naturally draws a lot of eyes. How has each QB fared, and what should they aim to show with over 30 NFL scouts watching?
Sam Howell’s 2021 season thus far
Interestingly enough, you could make the argument that 2021 has been Howell’s worst collegiate season. That only illustrates just how productive Howell has been throughout his entire career.
Through nine games this year, he has completed 169 of 268 passes (63.1%) for 2,408 yards, 20 touchdown passes, and 7 interceptions.
Statistically, Howell has taken a slight dip as a passer. However, that gap can be accounted for by his career-high rushing numbers. He already has 699 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground — both career-defining numbers by a decent margin.
But we know Howell is one of college football’s most productive passers. As a prospect, he’s less understood. Is he “Baby Baker Mayfield,” as so many have posited over the past few months? There are some similarities, but Howell is unique — both in his strengths and his flaws.
Can Howell make a case for QB1 tonight?
Howell is an interesting prospect. He hasn’t lost steam in the QB1 debate in 2021, but he hasn’t necessarily gained it, either. He’s hovering in that discussion, but there’s still a bit of hesitancy toward naming him QB1. And in general, it makes sense.
Howell is a flawed quarterback, like all of his counterparts. Those flaws were particularly evident in the season opener against Virginia Tech. There, Howell showed inconsistency under pressure. His mechanics waned when rushed, and he also tried to force bad decisions. One of Howell’s chief flaws is shared by others in this class — he resorts to playing high-risk hero ball in high-pressure situations, sometimes with costly results.
Over the course of the season, Howell has improved a bit in this regard. And all the while, he’s flashed the upside that’s kept him high on draft boards. He has great athleticism and competitive toughness, and his arm has some juice as well. Though not elite, the Tar Heels QB can generate velocity and push the ball into tight windows.
Howell is a known contender for QB1, but out-dueling Pickett could be his chance to earn an increase in merit. Pickett has been one of the league’s best QBs this year. If Howell can keep pace while maintaining consistency in structure and avoid poor decisions, he could draw more eyes as a prospective QB1. Elevating his team is key.
Kenny Pickett’s 2021 season thus far
While Howell still has to prove he can elevate his team consistently, Pickett has already proven himself in that regard. In truth, Pickett’s been doing it since before this season. But injuries, offensive inconsistency, and inconsistency from Pickett himself delayed his breakout. Now, he is as comfortable as he’s ever been. And it shows.
Like Howell, Pickett has also played nine games. Over that span, the Pitt product has accumulated 235 completions on 342 attempts (68.7%), 3,171 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and just 3 interceptions. He’s also amassed 234 yards and 4 scores on the ground.
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Pickett’s breakout season has been surprising on its own. But even more surprising is that it comes in Pickett’s fourth season as the starter for head coach Pat Narduzzi.
Pickett won the starting job as a sophomore. Since then, he’d remained as a stagnant but steady constant. Coming out of last season, he was seen as a Day 3 quarterback prospect. Now, however, things have changed.
Can Pickett make a case for QB1 tonight?
Pickett’s case study is a curious one. His rise has been very Joe Burrow-esque. And on the surface, he and Burrow do have some relatively cosmetic similarities. Like Burrow, Pickett will be a 24-year-old rookie. And like Burrow, Pickett doesn’t necessarily have elite arm talent or strength. Yet, it’s dangerous to compare those players on so few grounds.
There is a lot to like with Pickett, and it makes sense to start out with the traits that won me over last season when I first pinpointed Pickett as a potential NFL starter.
First and foremost, Pickett is a great athlete at 6’3″, 220 pounds. He has the escapability and pocket feel to evade rushes and extend plays. And off-platform, he has the arm elasticity to deliver throws with velocity.
Going further, Pickett is a supremely tough competitor — an element of his game that gets overlooked. Mentally, both from a processing and a toughness standpoint, Pickett is worth the hype. But two factors — his arm strength and hand size — will potentially dilute his stock.
Pickett has a high floor in the 2022 NFL Draft
Personally, I think his arm is strong enough — in the above-average range. It’s a very elastic arm, but not elite. Moreover, his hands are rumored to be in the eight-inch range — a historically low figure that would take him off some teams’ boards.
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Pickett can’t resolve that issue tonight. Rather, he’ll have to prove in the pre-draft process that he can handle NFL footballs, which run slightly bigger at times. Nevertheless, aside from occasional decision-making lapses, Pickett is a fairly high-floor prospect with some physical upside as well.
2022 NFL Draft implications of the UNC-Pitt matchup
Whoever wins the UNC-Pitt battle isn’t going to magically become the better quarterback prospect. That’s not how draft evaluations work. Nevertheless, seeing how QBs rise to these kinds of challenges is a valuable enterprise.
We saw an example last week with the duel between Matt Corral and Malik Willis. We’ve also seen it with Pickett and Howell on other occasions this year. Howell helped his team outlast Sam Hartman and the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. At the same time, he failed to exploit a Notre Dame defense without star safety Kyle Hamilton.
Pickett showed vital progression against a strong Clemson defense, a team that smothered him to the tune of 4 interceptions last year. Each week presents a QB with a different situation, and some situations are more notable regarding their NFL Draft stock than others. This is one of those weeks for both Pickett and Howell.
Both quarterbacks have enticing dual-threat skill sets. Each signal-caller is in the running for QB1. But which one will rise to the challenge and outlast the other — and will they show what they need to show in the process? For that, all we can do is watch.
