Salvon Ahmed Fantasy Outlook: Is it safe to start the Dolphins RB in Week 11?

At this point in the fantasy football season, staying static will get you beat. This late into the 2020 campaign, you need to be able to adjust your roster on the fly and be in tune with the ever-fluctuating availability of league running backs. Some teams rotate through running backs very often, and finding the right temporary starter at the right time, could help you come out on top. With that being said, what is Dolphins RB Salvon Ahmed’s fantasy outlook, and should he be in your starting lineup in Week 11?

The progression of the Miami Dolphins’ backfield in 2020

The Dolphins’ running back room has been one of the toughest to predict throughout the 2020 season. In Week 1 against the New England Patriots, Miami’s running back stable was a three-pronged attack containing Jordan Howard, Myles Gaskin, and Matt Breida, in which none of them received enough volume to be consistent fantasy threats.

That changed somewhat in Week 3 against the Jacksonville Jaguars, when Miami anointed Gaskin, a 2019 seventh-round pick, as the starter. Gaskin logged 22 carries in his first outing in the starting lineup, and for four games after that, he maintained his role as the primary back, leading the team in carries and logging at least 10 totes in each outing. Gaskin’s run would be interrupted, however, as he was placed on injured reserve with a sprained MCL on November 3.

Related | Fantasy RB Injury Report Week 11: Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Chris Carson, more

Gaskin’s injury gave way for a new leader in the running back room, and for a week, the winner of that spot was undefined. Jordan Howard led the team with 10 carries for 19 yards in the win against Arizona, but undrafted rookie Salvon Ahmed, who’d been promoted to the active roster from the practice squad in October, was close behind him, logging twice the amount of yards (38) on three fewer carries.

Last week against the Chargers, Brian Flores extinguished the ambiguity surrounding the Dolphins’ running back room and gave Ahmed the majority of the carries. The result was one of the Dolphins’ most efficient running back performances of 2020. Ahmed earned 85 yards and a touchdown on 21 attempts, showing good burst through the hole and good elusiveness while helping Miami to a crucial win.

Salvon Ahmed Fantasy Outlook: Is it safe to start the Dolphins RB in Week 11?

Ahmed had a strong performance in Week 10, both from a fantasy standpoint and a diagnostic standpoint. At 5-foot-11, 196, he’s a bit undersized for his frame, and that will limit his ability to push through contact for extra yards. But Ahmed showed good explosiveness out of the backfield, and when he reached space, he did a good job of consistently utilizing that space to stretch out some of his runs.

Ahmed’s performance will no doubt earn him a lasting role as a rotational weapon for the Dolphins’ offense, but fantasy football owners will likely only be concerned with his role definition in the short-term future, specifically in Week 11 against the Denver Broncos, who have allowed the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing running backs so far in 2020.

Especially in Week 11, but also in the weeks that follow, there will be some opportunities for the Dolphins’ defense to force an early lead for Miami, which may allow Flores to get more runs in down the stretch. In terms of game script, the outlook appears favorable for Ahmed, and for now, due to injuries, he may again have the inside track at attracting most of the volume.

Matt Breida, Myles Gaskin, and other running backs

Myles Gaskin has yet to come off of injured reserve for the Dolphins, and Matt Breida has missed two weeks now with a hamstring issue. There is a chance that Breida returns in Week 11, as he was questionable in Week 10 against the Chargers, but even when Breida has been healthy, he’s struggled to maintain a consistent workload in the Dolphins’ offense. Breida has been a mere ancillary threat all year; he’s never logged more than nine carries in a given game, and his top yardage output — 37 — occurred way back in Week 2.

The Dolphins do have a host of other healthy RBs or potential ball carriers, such as Patrick Laird, DeAndre Washington, Malcolm Perry, and Lynn Bowden, but none of them are serious threats to Ahmed’s production. Miami, while unpredictable this year, has shown a willingness to reward the hot hand with more carries, and after Ahmed’s stellar showing in Week 10, he should be in line for another Sunday as the starting running back, and he should again be the workhorse.

It’s impossible to say whether or not Ahmed will keep that role past Week 11; the eventual joint returns of Gaskin and Breida may complicate things, and there’s always the chance that Ahmed cools off. But it’s most definitely a situation to watch, as Miami has several favorable matchups stacked together in the closing stretch of the season, with contests against the Jets, Bengals, Patriots, and Raiders all on deck.

Salvon Ahmed is good to go as one of your fantasy RB starters in Week 11, and if he stays healthy and continues to produce at an efficient rate for the Dolphins, he could boost up your fantasy team for an even longer stretch.

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