If you’re playing a New Orleans Saints vs. Las Vegas Raiders DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 8, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Saints Considerations
New Orleans’ top three pass catchers in 2020 were — you guessed it — Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, and Jared Cook. Last season, the top three were Kamara, Deonte Harty, and Marquez Callaway. This year? Chris Olave, Tre’Quan Smith, and Juwan Johnson.
Can you spot the pattern? Despite their best-laid plans, the Saints have cycled through offensive personnel faster than a 1980’s middle-school history teacher operating a slide projector. And through it all, their Super Bowl prospects have whittled down from “almost there” to “almost no chance.”
It’s not all their fault. Injuries to Michael Thomas over the past three seasons have undercut what had been a prolific pass offense, even during Drew Brees’ twilight years. Speaking of which, the Saints’ QBs since 2019 have consisted of Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Taysom Hill, Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, Ian Book, and Andy Dalton.
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So as we examine this team’s DFS options in Week 8, we have to understand the context. The once dominant Kamara is now merely “great” while sporting the worst recorded broken-tackle rate of his career. Mark Ingram looks his age. Dalton realistically could get pulled at halftime.
At receiver, Olave is the one constant. Everyone else is a crapshoot — even occasional hero Taysom Hill.
If we want to spend big on Kamara and Olave (and we’ll have to), then we’ll need to find at least one super bargain elsewhere or perhaps two mid-range producers with relatively high ceilings. Easier said than done.
Raiders Considerations
Las Vegas cleared the first hurdle coming out of their Week 6 bye — win a game. Of course, beating the Texans at home was not assured until a pick-six late in the fourth quarter. The Raiders gave up 302 passing yards to Davis Mills — 79 yards above his career average.
I expect this to be a pretty high-scoring game, with Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams obviously serving as centerpieces. But Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins could also get into the action against a defense yielding the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs.
MORE: NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions Including Lock and Upset of the Week
And what about the normally much cheaper Foster Moreau? If the price is right, and if Darren Waller remains sidelined, I might include Moreau in DFS for the second straight week — although few teams have been tougher against TEs than New Orleans.
As alluded to above, we’ll have to find at least one affordable option, and maybe two if we go top-heavy.
Top DFS Lineup for Saints vs. Raiders
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: WR Alvin Kamara, Saints ($13,800)
To kick things off (pun intended, sadly), Kamara is best positioned to be the Captain. I believe a plurality of bettors will choose Jacobs instead. But Jacobs — along with teammates Adams and Derek Carr, are each priced above $10,000, meaning any of them would be $15,000+ in our Captain slot.
Kamara has a better matchup and a comparable ceiling. Keep in mind, he has yet to score. That’s a statistical anomaly for such an important offensive playmaker. I’m predicting 110+ total yards and 2+ scores for Kamara against the overmatched Raiders.
Flex: QB Andy Dalton, Saints ($9,600)
A bit risky, particularly given his steep price. But according to his coaches, Dalton’s earned the starting job. It’s no longer a question of when Winston will get healthy. So four quarters of Dalton versus the team yielding the most average QB fantasy points in the league (23.99)? Absolutely.
Flex: WR Chris Olave, Saints ($9,000)
There are no other reliable healthy wideouts for New Orleans. Olave brings a nice floor and massive ceiling to this lineup.
Flex: WR Hunter Renfrow, Raiders ($6,400)
If we go with Derek Carr or Adams or Jacobs, we’ll be forced to take a massively cheap flier. Instead, Renfrow is a decent enough bet, assuming Adams doesn’t dominate through the air and that the Saints can somehow slow down Jacobs. New Orleans has given up the third-fewest RB receiving yards, so that’s a start.
Flex: WR Mack Hollins, Raiders ($5,600)
Ah, now things are coming into focus. Hollins is a nice hedge alongside Renfrow. For a little bit less, we could get a Raider with solid 20+ point upside. Instead, we’ll go with two receivers possessing realistic 12+ point upside.
Flex: TE Juwan Johnson ($4,800)
I recommended the $4,800 Johnson in last week’s DFS article, back when he was only $3,000. A 5-32-2 receiving line has an inflationary impact. No one’s sleeping on Johnson this week.
