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    NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions Including Lock and Upset of the Week

    Our NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions explores a peculiar all-Ohio betting line and gets to the bottom of whether the Giants are for real.

    Death, taxes, and Dallas Robinson having a good betting week. D-Rob went 10-4 against the spread, and we, as a team, nailed our Lock of the Week in Week 7. Can we keep the good vibes going? Let’s find out with our NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions.

    All lines are as of Wednesday and are courtesy of Caesars.

    NFL Picks and Predictions: Lock of the Week

    Betting line
    Bengals -3.5; Bengals -190, Browns +158; O/U 47

    This line makes no sense.

    The Browns have lost four straight, surrendering 28.5 points per game over that stretch.

    The Bengals have won four of their last five and are averaging 27.3 points per game in October. Plus, Joe Burrow might be playing the best football of his career.

    Over his last five games, he’s thrown 12 touchdowns with just one interception. He’s second in the NFL in passing yards (2,097) and fifth in EPA+CPOE (.145).

    The Bengals’ only losses this year are to the Steelers (fluky Week 1) and the Cowboys (no shame there).

    The Browns, meanwhile, haven’t beaten a team with a winning record this year, and their two wins have come against the Steelers (31st in net points per drive) and Panthers (32nd).

    Browns vs. Bengals Predictions

    Adam Beasley
    Bengals 27, Browns 20

    Dalton Miller
    Bengals 33, Browns 20

    Dallas Robinson
    Bengals 27, Browns 21

    NFL Picks and Predictions: Upset of the Week

    Betting line
    Seahawks -3; Seahawks -165, Giants +140; O/U 45

    The Giants are the Rodney Dangerfields of the 2022 NFL season. A week ago, they were three-point underdogs at two-win Jacksonville.

    This week they’re three-point dogs against a Seahawks team that allows six yards per play and could have trouble scoring points without wide receiver DK Metcalf.

    MORE: What Can the Giants Tell Us About Sustainability?

    At some point, we should all admit that the Giants are a solid team and that they deserve to be 6-1. They’re top 10 in point differential, offensive EPA per play, and turnover margin.

    Don’t take any of this as Seahawks slander. They also deserve praise, but twice already, that defense has cost them winnable games. Our sense is it happens again this week.

    Giants vs. Seahawks Prediction

    Adam Beasley
    Giants 23, Seahawks 22

    Dalton Miller
    Giants 30, Seahawks 27

    Dallas Robinson
    Seahawks 25, Giants 21

    More NFL Picks and Predictions

    Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Betting line
    Ravens -1.5; Ravens -125, Buccaneers +105; O/U 45

    What once could have been considered one of the best games on the entire schedule now looks a bit dull. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are falling apart. They’ve lost four of their last five games and just came off their most embarrassing loss of the season, 21-3, to the hapless Carolina Panthers.

    The Tampa Bay offense ranks 20th in EPA generated and DVOA. They’re currently 26th in points-per-drive and 23rd in drive success rate. The interior of the offensive line is struggling, and the rushing attack is non-existent. If things don’t improve quickly, one of the Falcons or Saints could actually contend against the Buccaneers for the NFC South title.

    MORE: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings

    Meanwhile, Baltimore is one of the five best teams in the NFL statistically, but their 4-3 record is hiding that from the world. In fact, their three losses are all lost fourth-quarter leads, and they’ve played the league’s third-most difficult schedule, according to Football Outsiders.

    — Dalton Miller

    Beasley: Ravens 23, Buccaneers 20
    Miller: Ravens 21, Buccaneers 17
    Robinson: Ravens 24, Buccaneers 20

    Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

    Betting line
    Jaguars -2.5; Jaguars -145, Broncos +122; O/U 39

    The Denver Broncos are fascinating. Their defense is tied with Dallas for the top spot in EPA-per-play, yet they’re 2-5 because the rest of their team can’t get out of their own way. They’re 29th in offensive DVOA and 31st in Special Teams DVOA. And whoever thought maybe things could improve offensively without Russell Wilson in the lineup was sorely mistaken.

    Ironically enough, Jacksonville possesses an identical record to Denver. The Jags are 2-5, but unlike Denver, Jacksonville ranks as one of the better teams in the league. In fact, their overall team DVOA ranks ninth. They simply continue to find outrageous ways to lose football games.

    — Dalton Miller

    Beasley: Jaguars 20, Broncos 19
    Miller: Jaguars 23, Broncos 20
    Robinson: Jaguars 22, Broncos 17

    Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions

    Betting line
    Dolphins -3.5; Dolphins -190, Lions +158; O/U 51.5

    The Dolphins both totally outplayed the Steelers in Week 7 and are fortunate to have beaten them. Don’t search for logic in that sentence. It’s simply a reflection of the weirdness of the NFL this year.

    Tua Tagovailoa was back from concussion protocol and had his worst game of the season — throwing four would-be interceptions that Steelers defenders dropped. Plus, Mike McDaniel’s coaching decisions were a big reason they scored only 16 points despite gaining 372 yards and forcing three turnovers.

    MORE: Dolphins-Lions a Showcase Game for Top Young Pass Rushers

    Will the Lions be the cure for what ills a sputtering Dolphins offense? It better be. Detroit is last in point differential (-56), yards allowed (412.2), yards per play allowed (6.4), and defensive efficiency.

    Tyreek Hill might go for 200 yards.

    — Adam H. Beasley

    Beasley: Dolphins 28, Lions 24
    Miller: Dolphins 30, Lions 26
    Robinson: Dolphins 29, Lions 24

    Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

    Betting line
    Eagles -11; Eagles -550, Steelers +400; O/U 43

    The Eagles lead the “Battle of Pennsylvania” all-time series 48-29-3, and the still-undefeated Philadelphia squad is the heavy favorite in Week 8.

    Jalen Hurts and co. faced their stiffest test of the season before their bye, but even Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, and the rest of the Cowboys defense couldn’t put up a real threat. The Steelers shouldn’t present much of a problem, either. Pittsburgh’s interior defensive line could offer problems for the Eagles’ run game, but the Steelers don’t have the corners to deal with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

    Mike Tomlin looks poised to suffer his first losing season as a head coach, but he’ll probably be OK with that if Kenny Pickett shows promise over the rest of the year. That promise might not show up on Sunday, though. Pickett averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt over his last two starts and now faces an Eagles’ defense that ranks second in efficiency against opposing quarterbacks.

    — Dallas Robinson

    Beasley: Eagles 29, Steelers 14
    Miller: Eagles 33, Steelers 17
    Robinson: Eagles 27, Steelers 17

    New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

    Betting line
    Patriots -1.5; Patriots -130, Jets +110; O/U 40.5

    For the first time in recent memory, the Jets head into a matchup with the Patriots as the prohibitive playoff favorites. However, perhaps as a nod to historical precedence, Gang Green is still getting points at home.

    New England’s newfound quarterback controversy will likely continue in Week 8, as Bill Belichick has played coy about which of Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe will get the most snaps. Jones got pulled after two series on Monday Night Football, but it’s not as if Zappe was productive in a 33-14 loss to the Bears.

    MORE: Sauce Gardner Leads NFL Rookie Report Card

    The Jets are riding a four-game winning streak during which their opponents have averaged only 14 points per game. That defensive performance could continue against the Pats, but can Zach Wilson do enough to push New York to victory, especially without critical offensive pieces in Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker?

    — Dallas Robinson

    Beasley: Jets 21, Patriots 20
    Miller: Jets 24, Patriots 20
    Robinson: Jets 21, Patriots 17

    Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

    Betting line
    Falcons -4.5; Falcons -225, Falcons +185; O/U 42

    The Panthers pulled off the upset of the season in Week 7, taking down the Buccaneers days after trading Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. P.J. Walker will draw another start, and he could conceivably push the ball down the field to D.J. Moore against a Falcons secondary that is already without Casey Hayward and could also be missing A.J. Terrell.

    On the other side of the field, will Arthur Smith actually let Marcus Mariota throw? Carolina fields a pass-funnel defense that’s much better against the run. However, even though the Falcons trailed the Bengals by three scores in the first half on Sunday, Mariota still only managed 13 passes. Mariota has been pretty effective when asked to pass (7.9 yards per attempt), so perhaps Drake London and Kyle Pitts will finally get in on the action.

    — Dallas Robinson

    Beasley: Falcons 23, Panthers 20
    Miller: Falcons 24, Panthers 20
    Robinson: Falcons 23, Panthers 20

    Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints

    Betting line
    Raiders -2; Raiders -130, Saints +110; O/U 49.5

    Both Las Vegas and New Orleans are hoping for late-season revivals and have a shot to make the playoffs. For the Raiders, a recent uptick in play has given them confidence that they can push forward and steal a couple of games along the way to a Wild Card spot, while the Saints are hoping that players returning from injury can give them the juice they need to win the NFC South.

    The Raiders have found their legs as an offense and have been able to put up points, but the Saints’ defense is capable when healthy. More interesting will be the status of the Saints’ offense, with questions about Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, and Andrus Peat along with the quarterback – if Jameis Winston plays, there’s a higher ceiling but lower floor with his play style.

    The Raiders’ primary concern is how their defense interacts with that offense, especially without a corner that can match up with the speed of Chris Olave. With only one pass rusher playing effectively, it should be a high-scoring affair, and the Raiders will need to be confident that their recent offensive explosion, with production out of Davante Adams, Darren Waller, and Mack Hollins, reflects who they really are instead of being a blip on the radar.

    — Arif Hasan

    Beasley: Raiders 26, Saints 23
    Miller: Raiders 35, Saints 32
    Robinson: Raiders 23, Saints 19

    Chicago Bears vs. Dallas Cowboys

    Betting line
    Cowboys -9.5; Cowboys -455, Bears +345; O/U 42.5

    Dallas’s defense is among the best in the league, if not the best. Dak Prescott needs to work his way back into the fold after breaking his thumb, but aside from a few misses against Detroit, he led an efficient Dallas attack on offense. The Cowboys must continue attacking teams the way they did against Detroit, even against what should be a lesser opponent in Chicago.

    MORE: Grading the Cowboys Trade For Johnathan Hankins

    Chicago flipped the script on New England this week. They stole some plays from the Ravens to get their quarterback involved in the run game. It’s amazing the positive impact using your 6-foot-2, 230-pound QB that runs a 4.4 can have on an offense that already runs the ball well. Dallas’ defense has played well against the run so far, aside from Week 1, but this will be a difficult task for the unit.

    If Dallas can’t get a lead early and let their defensive line pin their ears back on an underwhelming Chicago OL, this could be a slugfest.

    — Dalton Miller

    Beasley: Cowboys 25, Bears 17
    Miller: Cowboys 28, Bears 18
    Robinson: Cowboys 24, Bears 13

    Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings

    Betting line
    Vikings -3.5; Vikings -195, Cardinals +162; O/U 49

    The Vikings are on a winning streak and have been feasting on backup quarterbacks along with special teams mistakes from their opponents. But with the way the Cardinals’ offense is playing, it might not be all that different from taking on Andy Dalton or Teddy Bridgewater.

    If Minnesota finds consistency that allows them to avoid the three-and-outs that characterize half of its offensive drives, Kevin O’Connell’s group will be deadly. This game might be what the offense needs to get back on track given how poorly the Cardinals’ defense has been playing, ranking 28th in expected points given up against the pass with underperformance from their cornerback group and pass rush, especially when linebacker Dennis Gardeck was forced to sit due to injury.

    There is talent there, but it hasn’t been cohesive and may not be able to keep up with Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson. The other side of things gets interesting. Returning DeAndre Hopkins to the lineup has helped spark the offense, and they’re slowly getting better at using more parts of the field. If the Vikings’ pass rush continues to lag behind, Kyler Murray will be able to buy time in the pocket and find open receivers. This should be a high-scoring affair, but the Vikings do have an advantage.

    — Arif Hasan

    Beasley: Vikings 28, Cardinals 21
    Miller: Vikings 24, Cardinals 20
    Robinson: Vikings 28, Cardinals 24

    Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

    Betting line
    Titans -2; Titans -130, Texans +110; O/U 40.5

    The Texans are the worst football team in the NFL, at least according to Football Outsiders team DVOA rankings. They’ve kept things close in many of their games so far in 2022, but they’ve been hilariously outclassed in the fourth quarter through seven games.

    Tennessee is a curious football team, and has been over the past few seasons. There was a time with Arthur Smith when Ryan Tannehill and the Titans’ passing attack was a top-tier efficiency machine, but they’ve won games without looking good on paper for the past two seasons.

    Tennessee is a much better team than Houston, which makes the 2-point spread peculiar. Houston struggles defending the run, and Derrick Henry is coming off three straight 100-yard performances.

    — Dalton Miller

    Beasley: Titans 23, Texans 20
    Miller: Titans 27, Texans 14
    Robinson: Titans 22, Texans 15

    Washington Commanders vs. Indianapolis Colts

    Betting line
    Colts -3; Colts -155, Commanders +130; O/U 40

    We’re going to be honest. We have absolutely no idea what to expect in this one. And Vegas is suggesting the same, giving the Colts the standard three points for playing at home — and no more.

    These teams are equally flawed.

    Washington is 29th in point differential, 30th in yards per play, 29th in net points per drive, and 27th in turnover margin. Indianapolis ranks in the bottom three in offensive EPA, DVOA, and giveaways/takeaways.

    This is a Tankathon game if we’ve ever seen one. But at least the Commanders showed some signs of life in Week 6, beating the freefalling Packers for their second straight win.

    A change of quarterback did the Commanders good, and Taylor Heinicke could win the job for the rest of the season with a strong stretch over the next few weeks. There’s no uncertainty in Indianapolis. Sam Ehlinger is in for Matt Ryan for the rest of the season.

    This isn’t exactly Jurgensen vs. Unitas.

    — Adam H. Beasley

    Beasley: Commanders 21, Colts 19
    Miller: Commanders 21, Colts 17
    Robinson: Colts 20, Commanders 14

    San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

    Betting line
    49ers -1.5; 49ers -125, Rams +105; O/U 43.5

    The NFC West is wide open, and part of that is because San Francisco’s “backup” quarterback seems to be playing better than Los Angeles’ Super Bowl-winning starter. That said, it’s tough for the 49ers to push the ball when behind, so there are pretty clear limitations.

    By adding Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers have supercharged the low-depth, high-YAC style of offense that Jimmy Garoppolo works with and allows them to attack the Rams outside of where they’re strong — cornerback and interior defensive line, forcing them to tackle instead of cover. Still, they should be able to put pressure on Garoppolo, who has issues dealing with it.

    When the 49ers are on defense, they’ll have one of the league’s best young safeties in Talanoa Hufanga, who, along with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa, form one of the league’s toughest defenses. While Matthew Stafford remains out of sync with the offense he’s supposed to be running, it will be tough to score points, though they’ve been gradually ramping up as Cooper Kupp finds space to run.

    Ultimately, it will be tough to find points, especially as the 49ers play methodical and the Rams need more explosives, but there will be a lot of opportunities for defenses to make big plays and get their offenses into the right position.

    — Arif Hasan

    Beasley: Rams 24, 49ers 23
    Miller: 49ers 24, Rams 20
    Robinson: 49ers 24, Rams 21

    Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills

    Betting line
    Bills -11.5; Bills -600, Packers +430; O/U 47.5

    The Packers are at DEFCON 1 following a three-game losing streak, but no reprieve is coming in the near future.

    Aaron Rodgers has never been a double-digit underdog in his career, but the spread for Sunday’s matchup has now moved to a whopping 11.5 points. And the line makes sense – while the Bills have defeated some of the strongest teams in the league, Green Bay has dropped games to the Giants, Jets, and Commanders.

    It’s hard to imagine the Packers’ passing game getting back on track against an elite Buffalo defense, especially when Rodgers, et al. couldn’t get anything going against depleted Giants and Commanders secondaries.

    However, there is a silver lining to this game that could favor the Packers. While Green Bay’s run defense has consistently hemorrhaged yardage on the ground, Buffalo can’t run the ball at all. Of course, the Bills can simply turn things over to MVP favorite Josh Allen.

    — Dallas Robinson

    Beasley: Bills 31, Packers 17
    Miller: Bills 30, Packers 20
    Robinson: Bills 28, Packers 20

    Season Standings Through Seven Weeks

    Adam Beasley: 58-49-1 straight up, 50-56-2 against the spread
    Dalton Miller: 60-47-1, 48-58-2
    Dallas Robinson: 69-38-1, 53-53-2

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