After an unsuccessful attempt at trading Russell Wilson, the Denver Broncos informed the Super Bowl-winning QB he would be released and gave him permission to speak to other teams. On Sunday, March 10, Wilson posted to tell the world he would sign with the Steelers when the new league year officially begins.
What does the arrival of Wilson mean for the fantasy football side of things? How does his presence affect the fantasy values of Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and the rest of the Steelers’ offense?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of Russell Wilson Signing With the Pittsburgh Steelers?
Let’s start with Wilson himself. Initially, the Steelers publicly expressed confidence in their quarterback room and dismissed the idea of signing or trading for a veteran. Clearly, either something changed, or that was never true.
Reportedly, Wilson will compete with Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph for the starting job. While Wilson is obviously nowhere near the caliber of player he was during his prime, he is still a vastly superior option to anyone else on this roster.
Fantasy managers should view this competition as similar to the “competition” between Geno Smith and Drew Lock two years ago or the one between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask last year. We should fully expect Wilson to start Week 1.
With that said, the current version of Wilson is not exactly this fantasy superstar. In his heyday, Wilson was capable of averaging over 20 fantasy points per game, something he’s done five times in his career. However, the last time he was able to do that was 2020.
Wilson did rebound after a disastrous 2022 season to post respectable numbers in 2023. He threw for 26 touchdowns, averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game. In a down year for quarterbacks, that was actually good for an overall QB12 finish.
Fantasy managers should not expect Wilson to be a QB1 this season. But it is worth noting that Wilson provided a decent floor last year, scoring at least 15 fantasy points in 12 of his 15 starts.
It remains to be seen how Wilson will mesh with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. In Atlanta, Smith’s coaching philosophy severely hindered their offense.
However, he was the architect of Ryan Tannehill’s revival and has proven capable of crafting a good offense. Perhaps Smith is someone who is more cut out to be a coordinator than a head coach. We will find out in short order.
Regardless, Wilson is in a better spot in Pittsburgh than he was in Denver. While he’s absolutely not someone fantasy managers should target as their QB1 this season, he will almost certainly have weeks where he posts 20+ fantasy points and is on the streaming radar.
Wilson May Be Better for George Pickens Than Diontae Johnson
It would definitely be unwise for anyone to look at what Wilson did last season and draw firm conclusions. Wilson very clearly preferred Courtland Sutton, who profiles much more similarly to George Pickens than Diontae Johnson. This would suggest Pickens benefits more from Wilson’s arrival.
That may very well end up being the case, but let’s not forget Wilson’s past receivers. We’ve seen him utilize DK Metcalf as his clear WR1, who compares closer to Pickens, but also Doug Baldwin, who is more similar to Johnson.
Of course, this is all moot if Johnson gets traded. But if not, there’s no guarantee Wilson prefers Pickens to Johnson.
With that said, in his older age, Wilson has become more of an underneath or deep bomb type QB. He doesn’t really work the middle of the field well anymore. As a result, Wilson launching 50/50 balls to Pickens and trusting him to win in contested situations might end up making Pickens the more valuable fantasy asset. It will also make him far more volatile on a weekly basis.
Johnson averaged just 11.8 fantasy points per game last season. He is still looking to recapture the magic of his 17.2 points per game in the 2021 season. Unfortunately, it appears more and more likely that was a product of unique circumstances with an old Ben Roethlisberger.
In 2021, Johnson commanded a 28.5% target share. Last season, not only was it merely 23.5%, but the Steelers are throwing the ball far less than they did when Big Ben was around.
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Last season, the Steelers led the NFL with a 52% neutral game script run rate. The team is directly behind them at 51% — Arthur Smith’s Atlanta Falcons. They were the only two offenses in the league to run more than they passed in neutral situations.
Even if Johnson and Pickens account for over half of the Steelers’ targets, the overall pie just may not be that big. As of right now, neither is looking like an appealing option in 2024 fantasy leagues.
Wilson Has Always Utilized His Tight Ends, Which Could Be Good News for Pat Freiermuth
Looking back on the successes of Wilson’s tight ends may not paint the clearest picture. In Seattle, he very rarely had one clear guy. But he did throw to his tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth’s rookie season looked like a harbinger of big things to come. Unfortunately, he stagnated in 2022 and then regressed considerably in 2023.
The Muth has probably spurned fantasy managers too much with his 6.7 fantasy points per game last season to be drafted anywhere near the top-12 tight ends. However, it would be a major surprise if he didn’t have at least a couple of games that had fantasy managers thinking it may be back on with Freiermuth.
Of course, Freiermuth will suffer from the same issues the passing game will have in general. At this point in his career, Wilson is not capable of supporting two fantasy-relevant wide receivers, plus a tight end. Someone will be left out on a weekly basis, likely two of them.
So, while Wilson should help Freiermuth post better numbers in 2024 than he did last year, it still probably won’t be enough to get him back into the ranks of the TE1s.
The Running Game Should Largely Be Unaffected
Before we close this up, I would be remiss to not include a quick word on the Steelers running game. As mentioned above, this was already one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league. That is unlikely to change.
The biggest potential benefit for Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren would be if Wilson plays well enough to increase the overall scoring potential of this offense.
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The Steelers scored just 29 total offensive touchdowns last season. That was up from 28 the year prior. Even in a disappointing year, the Broncos were able to score 36 touchdowns.
Both running backs should get plenty of opportunities, but with Harris as the primary goal-line back, he could end up being a solid value, given the perception of him and Warren, if the Steelers’ offense is better than expected.
