As Robert Tonyan returns in 2022 following an ACL tear, what can fantasy football managers expect from the Green Bay Packers tight end? He broke out in a big way two years ago, finishing as a top-five TE and averaging over 10 fantasy points per game in PPR scoring. Does Tonyan’s fantasy outlook for 2022 show he can meet those lofty returns, and should managers draft him at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?
Robert Tonyan’s fantasy outlook for 2022
The stars are somewhat aligned for Tonyan to perform well in 2022. The pass-cathing depth chart is weak in terms of receivers that have developed a rapport with Aaron Rodgers. There is every chance following Davante Adams’ departure that Tonyan could be in line for a career-high in targets. The question is how efficient he can be with those touches.
Tonyan’s 2020 campaign was remarkable. He was a top-five fantasy TE despite having just 59 targets. No other TE in the top 15 that season had fewer than 75 targets, and you have to go all the way to 18th to find a tight end with 60 or fewer (Tyler Higbee).
Tonyan caught 52 of those targets for an 88.1% catch rate. In the previous two seasons, he had a 66.7% catch rate. And in 2021, it was “just” 62.1%. He also caught 11 touchdowns, averaging a TD on every 5.36 targets. He has just three touchdowns on the other 50 targets in his career outside of that season.
Therefore, we cannot look at 2020 as anything more than a perfect situation for Tonyan. The more likely outcome is somewhere closer to the pace he was on before his injury last year. Before his injury, Tonyan had 18 receptions on 29 targets for 204 yards and two touchdowns. That was on pace for 62 targets, 38 receptions, 433 yards, and around four scores. That stat line would have seen Tonyan as the TE30 on a per-game basis. Certainly not desirable, but the situation is a lot different in 2022.
How the Packers’ depth chart impacts Tonyan’s fantasy projection for the season
The Packers are very much subscribing to the theory that the Patriots did with Brady for years: Their QB will elevate the talent around him. The Packers look set to enter the year with a combination of Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Romeo Doubs, and Christian Watson as their WRs. They then have a collection of tight ends, including Tonyan, as well as RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
Last year, Adams dominated targets. His 169 were over 100 more than the next highest, which was Jones at 65. The player fourth on the list of targets, Marquez Valdes-Scantling with 55, is also gone. That is over 200 targets that are up for grabs in this offense. There is no clear option to take a bulk of them, so they should be spread across the offense, and Tonyan could be one of the players to benefit.
We really have no idea how the Packers will structure this offense. For so long, the axis has been the run game paired with the Rodgers-to-Adams connection. The run game is still there, but the second part of the equation is gone. Tonyan has proven he can be a reliable pair of hands, so if the Packers and Rodgers are looking for a consistent option, they might settle on Tonyan.
Expecting Tonyan to be a top-five TE again with this uncertainty is overly optimistic. However, there is every chance we see him top that career-high 59 targets. We know what he can do with those targets, so is a speculative later-round selection worthwhile? Let’s examine what you have to pay to find out.
Tonyan’s ADP for 2022
Tonyan’s ADP has seen a slight bump since he was activated from the PUP list. However, he has yet to be cleared for team activities heading into Week 3 of the preseason. That has not stopped his ADP from creeping up slightly. Regardless, he is still going 177th overall as the TE19 off the board on average. That sees him either going undrafted or as a last-round selection in 12-team leagues, depending on the number of bench spots.
At that price, Tonyan could present a slight value. He is the TE17 and 149th overall in PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings. However, it is worth noting our rankings do not include defenses or kickers, so they do not compare perfectly to ADP in terms of overall rankings.
What we do not know at this point is when Tonyan will be on the field for the Packers. He will almost certainly be at least questionable for Week 1 against the Vikings. However, in a standard, non-TE premium format, you can get Tonyan so late that if you are willing to stash him, it does not cost you anything. If you pair him with another late-round, high-upside tight end, then the worst case is you are streaming TEs if he doesn’t work out.
The intriguing element with Tonyan is his value if he can get three to five of the targets vacated by Adams on a weekly basis. If that is the case, Tonyan could be a legitimate solid floor Flex option. Even if you have invested in the tight end position early in the draft, a speculative late-round flier on Tonyan could still be worthwhile.
In TE premium leagues, the potential increase in targets is enticing. The uncertainty around his early season availability should keep the price down. Thus, you can potentially get Tonyan at a solid discount relative to what he could provide on the field this season.
