The change in the NFL’s landscape year over year is a sight to behold. There is a reason that the concept of worst-to-first is such a popular one every season. However, in recent times, a worrying trend in the opposite direction has also started to take shape. In the last decade, 10 different teams have gone from divisional winners to the last-ranked (or tied for last-ranked) team in the division.
That number increases to six when tallying from 2020 onwards, with the San Francisco 49ers as the latest example from last season. This year, another team is starting to follow in a similar trajectory. However, it wasn’t one anyone could have anticipated at the start of the year. That team, of course, is the Baltimore Ravens, who have started the season 1-4, with a Lamar Jackson injury making matters worse.
Do the Ravens Still Have a Chance?
The short answer is yes. But it is undoubtedly not going to be easy. Out of 253 teams that started the season 1-4, only 15 teams have gone on to make the playoffs, with the last such squad being the Washington Commanders in 2020.
Simply put, history is not on the Ravens’ side. And the metrics show that. According to PFSN’s playoff predictor, Baltimore has just a 20.6% chance of making the postseason, with a 14.7% chance of winning the AFC North.
Despite their 1-3 start, their chances were relatively high, as they still were given a greater than 40% chance. However, their loss to the Houston Texans (44-10) was a costly endeavor in the playoff hunt.
Their fall can be attributed largely to one single factor: The defense. Once the hallmark of the franchise, the team has struggled mightily on that side of the football, currently ranking as the second-worst unit in the entire league on PFSN’s Defense Impact.
The Ravens have given up 35+ points in four out of their first five games this season. That’s already the most games allowing 35+ points in a season in franchise history.
To make matters worse, Jackson was ruled out of the game against Houston with a hamstring injury, which could require him to miss up to six weeks. As the game against the Texans showed, without their MVP, the team immediately falls into shambles.
But there is one sliver of hope remaining. The first is a defensive turnaround like last season, where Baltimore went from a bottom-feeder to a top-10 unit over the course of the year.
The next is the schedule. Coming out of the bye, the Ravens face off against the Chicago Bears, the Miami Dolphins, the Minnesota Vikings, the Cleveland Browns, and the New York Jets. All five of those games are extremely winnable, especially if they get Jackson back.
Despite the franchise’s current plight, there is a path back to the playoffs. But it leaves virtually no margin for error.