The Las Vegas Raiders’ season turned sharply after a Week 1 victory over the New England Patriots, followed by a prolonged slide that has placed the franchise deep in the 2026 NFL Draft conversation. But can the Raiders finish with the league’s worst record and secure the No. 1 overall pick next April?
Analysis frames the stakes around quarterback access and the leverage that comes with holding the top slot. If the Raiders control No. 1, it preserves options at quarterback and avoids the scenario where teams with surplus first-round picks package assets to jump ahead.
That dynamic is amplified by the presence of multiple quarterback-needy teams and others with established starters who could trade into position. The logic presented is practical. Secure the top slot to reduce uncertainty, avoid mortgaging future capital, and retain flexibility at the most important position.
What Are the Las Vegas Raiders’ Chances of Landing No. 1 Overall Pick?
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, after their Week 15 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Raiders currently have an 35% chance of securing the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Week 17 against the Giants could be decisive in shaping the top of the draft order and the notes schedule, serving as meaningful inputs to the model’s projections.
The analysis also points to roster realities, quarterback availability, an offensive line ranked last on PFSN’s Offensive Line Impact, and limited defensive depth beyond Maxx Crosby as consistent with the team’s position near the bottom of the standings.
Separately, syndicated commentary emphasizes the importance of holding the pick to select a top-tier quarterback rather than trading down, citing the AFC West’s established passers and Las Vegas’s need to make a decisive move.
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Together, these points clarify that probability movement, schedule context, and strategic incentives converge on the same conclusion: securing No. 1 simplifies the path and protects against rival trade-ups.
Raiders Remaining Schedule
- Week 16: Raiders at Texans
- Week 17: Raiders vs. Giants
- Week 18: Raiders vs. Chiefs
The Week 17 head-to-head with the Giants is a swing game in determining whether the Raiders finish at the bottom and control the draft board. The remaining slate pairs two road trips with a finale against the Chiefs, a difficult stretch that aligns with the season’s broader challenges documented in coverage.
Local analysis argues that while teams cannot outwardly tank, prioritizing health and avoiding unnecessary risk for veterans with nagging injuries is a consideration as the season winds down, an approach meant to keep long-term objectives intact.
In practical terms, these final four games, especially the Giants matchup, should determine whether the Raiders hold the top pick or face scenarios in which other clubs with additional capital attempt to trade into No. 1.
That outcome materially affects Las Vegas’ leverage at quarterback and the degree to which the franchise must expend future resources to shape the draft board to its needs.
