Raheem Mostert Fantasy Outlook: Making Sense of the Miami Dolphins’ Three-Man Committee

With three competent RBs on the Miami Dolphins' roster, can Raheem Mostert maintain enough work to be a fantasy factor in 2023?

Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert had an interesting season last year. He played well enough to vanquish Chase Edmonds from the team but couldn’t stave off Jeff Wilson from eating into his touches. With Wilson returning and Devon Achane added to the mix, what is Mostert’s fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season?

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Raheem Mostert’s Fantasy Outlook

After opening the season as the clear backup to Edmonds, Mostert wasted little time in forcing the Dolphins’ hand. Not only did he flip the timeshare in his favor in as little as two weeks, but Mostert played well enough (and Edmonds poorly enough) for the team to jettison Edmonds entirely.

By Week 4, Mostert’s snap share was pushing 70% on a weekly basis. After just six opportunities in Week 1, he only saw fewer than 10 once the rest of the season.

Overall, Mostert averaged 10.5 PPR fantasy points per game. He finished as the RB29. While his consistency did take a bit of a hit following Wilson’s arrival, he still posted three RB1-caliber outings after Wilson came around. Mostert averaged 10.5 ppg with Wilson and 10.7 ppg without him.

Mostert also displayed the best pass-catching chops of his career. His 8.4% target share was a career-high. While it still ranked outside the top 25, it’s enough to supplement his fantasy value.

Now for the not-so-good. The Dolphins’ backfield was already going to be a timeshare between Wilson and Mostert. Then, the Dolphins spent a third-round pick on Achane.

While Achane is obviously not a three-down RB, he does profile as an excellent satellite back. We could be looking at a scenario where Mostert and Wilson split early down and goal-line carries, with Achane as the passing-down back. All three would have weeks where they’re worth starting in lineups, but it would be impossible to predict.

Should Fantasy Managers Draft Mostert at His ADP?

We know fantasy managers love the new hotness. So, it shouldn’t come as much surprise that the rookie Achane has the highest ADP amongst Dolphins running backs. What is a bit of a surprise is the gap.

Achane is going as the RB43, while Mostert is the RB46, No. 154 overall, and Wilson is the RB52.

My projections have Mostert with 180 carries for 838 yards and 6.8 touchdowns on the ground, plus 27 receptions for 187 yards and 1.7 touchdowns through the air. That averages out to 10.7 ppg and an RB33 finish.

Those projections obviously would suggest Mostert is a really good value. However, those projections also assume 17 games and for this backfield to not really change from the opening-day split.

At age 31, with competition from a rookie, there’s a nonzero chance Mostert ends up completely valueless by midseason. That needs to be factored in. As a result, Mostert is my RB48, with Wilson at RB49. Essentially, I don’t know which one is the better pick, but at the right price, it’s worth taking a shot on either.

I do have Achane slightly higher at RB44. That is not because I necessarily think he will be the most valuable over a full season, but rather because he has far more upside, especially given his receiving acumen.

Ultimately, I am fine with drafting all three of these backs and seeing how things shake out. Football is a violent game. It’s unlikely all three will stay healthy for the entire season. If this becomes a two-man committee, the two that remain will likely return value above where they are currently being drafted. With Mostert and Wilson being significantly cheaper, there’s very little risk in throwing a dart at them.

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