The historic start to Los Angeles Rams WR Puka Nacua’s NFL career still feels like a huge surprise months removed from the 2023 season, which could make some fantasy football managers skeptical about his statistical outlook entering his second year in the league.
Can fantasy managers expect the same production from Nacua in 2024?
Should You Select Puka Nacua at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 14th Overall (WR7)
- Exceptional Rookie Season: Nacua had an outstanding rookie season, finishing with 105 receptions for 1,486 yards on 160 targets. He ranked fourth in receiving yards, sixth in targets, and eighth in receptions, making him an elite fantasy asset in 2023.
- Impact of Cooper Kupp: Some may attribute Nacua’s early-season success to Kupp’s absence due to injury, as his fantasy points per game dropped from 23.9 in Weeks 1-4 to 15.6 after Kupp returned. However, Nacua continued to produce at a high level even with Kupp in the lineup, showcasing his ability to maintain relevance in the Rams’ offense.
- Potential for Growth: While Nacua set the bar high in his rookie season, there’s room for improvement in 2024. His ability to excel against zone coverage and generate yards after the catch gives him a solid floor. Additionally, Kupp’s injury history could elevate Nacua’s role, making him a WR1 if Kupp misses time.
- Injury Considerations: Nacua did suffer a knee injury that has him considered week-to-week. While it doesn’t appear to be serious, any injury during the offseason is noteworthy and could impact his availability early in the season.
- Established Role in Offense: Nacua is firmly entrenched as a 1A/1B option in the Rams’ passing attack. His utilization by Sean McVay ensures a high weekly floor, with an elite ceiling in a pass-heavy offense, making him a valuable fantasy asset heading into 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Nacua’s current ADP of 14th overall as the WR7 places him as a late first-round or early second-round pick. In full PPR formats, this price point is justified given his proven production. However, in standard or half-PPR formats, his value may be slightly lower, as he remains the second option behind Kupp in the red zone.
- Final Verdict: Nacua is a high-ceiling, high-floor fantasy option in 2024, especially in PPR formats. His established role, combined with his potential for growth and Kupp’s injury history, makes him worth the investment at his current ADP. However, temper expectations slightly in non-PPR formats where his red-zone usage may limit his upside.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Puka Nacua
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
12) Jonathan Taylor, RB | Indianapolis Colts
13) Saquon Barkley, RB | Philadelphia Eagles
14) Puka Nacua, WR | Los Angeles Rams
15) Kyren Williams, RB | Los Angeles Rams
16) Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | Arizona Cardinals
17) Travis Etienne Jr., RB | Jacksonville Jaguars
18) Chris Olave, WR | New Orleans Saints
19) Derrick Henry, RB | Baltimore Ravens
Puka Nacua’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
To call Nacua’s rookie season a big success would feel like a major disservice to his excellence on the field.
One does not have to look very hard to see just how elite Nacua’s usage was during his year in the NFL and quickly realize he was an elite fantasy asset for managers.
Nacua’s 2023 stats and positional rankings
- Targets: 160 (sixth)
- Receptions: 105 (eighth)
- Yards: 1,486 (fourth)
Translation. Nacua was everything fantasy managers expected his teammate — Cooper Kupp — would be when they spent first-round fantasy draft capital on the latter heading into last season.
#Rams WR Puka Nacua escapes a tackle and breaks off a HUGE gain! 💨#RamsHouse
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 31, 2023
Speaking of Kupp, some may be quick to assume Nacua’s great accumulative fantasy production came in large part to his absurd usage through the first month of the season, when the veteran wideout was on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
To be fair, Nacua’s fantasy points per game did drop from 23.9 from Weeks 1-4 to 15.6 from Week 5 through the rest of the season, but it doesn’t take away from how special he was to start his career.
His 52 targets and 39 receptions led all pass catchers in both categories through the first four games of the 2023 campaign. Only Justin Jefferson had more receiving yards than Nacua through the first month of NFL action.
One way to project Nacua’s production would be to take his per-game averages when Kupp was in the lineup — five receptions for 79 yards — and simply expand that out over a 17-game season. Using that method, Nacua could project around 85 receptions for 1,343 yards, which is still solid but probably not worthy of a first-round pick.
Yet, have we considered the possibility that Nacua could actually get better in his sophomore season? Sure, Nacua set the bar unreasonably high and Kupp’s presence certainly could limit his ceiling. However, his exceptional ability to destroy zone coverage and churn out extra yards as a run-after-catch threat was special in 2023, which gives him a great floor heading into next year.
Not to mention, Kupp hasn’t exactly been the poster boy for durability over the last two seasons, missing 12 games due to injury. If Kupp gets dinged up again, we saw a WR1 overall type of ceiling from Nacua if Kupp should miss any time.
Speaking of injuries, Nacua actually picked up a knee injury that has him considered week-to-week. Fortunately, the injury doesn’t appear to be anything serious — but picking a significant enough injury to miss multiple weeks worth of practice is always noteworthy.
Ultimately, Nacua is firmly established as a bona fide 1A/1B option in this offense, no matter how you rank these two receivers. He was utilized perfectly by Sean McVay to give fantasy managers a high weekly floor even with Kupp in the lineup, but he possesses an elite ceiling in a pass-heavy offense.
Stay skeptical about Nacua’s fantasy success at your own risk.
Is Nacua a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
Nacua is currently coming off the board at No. 11 overall as the seventh WR taken, according to current average draft position (ADP) data. This makes him a late first-round or early second-round pick, depending on your league format and size.
In full PPR formats, I would select Nacua at this price point. In standard or half-PPR formats, I’m a little bit less excited about this investment, due to Nacua still being the second option in the passing game behind Kupp when the Rams get in the red zone.