The arrival of Week 8 means we are now almost at the halfway point of the regular season and with that comes some greater attention of the prop bet market around NFL futures alongside just this game week. Each week, our NFL betting team will be providing you with our favorite prop bets to help win you some cash. This article will break down various angles through all of Sunday and Monday’s games, as we continuously update our selections as more lines become available. We will also kick off the article with some potential Super Bowl futures bets that may offer value right now.
Week 8 begins on Thursday Night Football, as the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers clash in a battle that both teams need to win to have any shot of competing in their division or the playoff picture in general. The end of the week sees the Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the New York Giants in a battle that will see Tom Brady take on the franchise that defeated him twice in the Super Bowl. Let’s dive into some of our favorite prop bets for Week 8 of the NFL, but first, let’s look at those Super Bowl futures!
Super Bowl Futures
With six or seven weeks in the books for all 32 NFL teams, the Super Bowl futures odds are starting to take shape. Unsurprisingly, the 6-1 Kansas City Chiefs lead the pack in most places, but behind them, there are some interesting numbers that we could look to exploit.
Firstly, let’s address the overvalued teams. The Baltimore Ravens (5-1) have the record to deserve their billing as second-favorite, but their performances on the field have left a lot to be desired, and they have failed their biggest test so far. The Seattle Seahawks (5-1) also look to be slightly overvalued given the frailties in their defense and their lack of ability to close games out defensively. Sandwiched between them are Tom Brady’s Buccaneers (5-2), who have looked superb the last two weeks. However, they have also shown concerning signs at times through the first seven weeks.
In terms of potential values when it comes to NFL futures, the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0) should arguably be better than third in the AFC, after they held off a late charge from the previously unbeaten Tennessee Titans in Week 7. Sports Betting Dime’s Super Bowl odds tracker has the 6-0 Steelers listed at +950, but that could swing fairly wildly if they stay undefeated after this weekend’s game with the Ravens.
The real value right now appears to be in the Green Bay Packers, who have shrunk to the sixth favorite in most places after they were manhandled by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, the Packers appear to have an offense that can compete with most teams and can attack you however they want. With Aaron Rodgers under center, look for this team to be in the reckoning when we get to the sharp end of the NFC in January.
Week 8 Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants | Monday, November 2nd, 8:20 PM
Ben Rolfe: Daniel Jones over 25.5 rushing yards
The line on Jones’ rushing yards seems to be set too low every week. Jones is averaging 42.5 yards per game, double his 2019 average, and he has gone over 40 rushing yards in four of his last five games. The key to Jones’ rushing success has been the failure of his offensive line to keep him clean against good pass-rushing teams. Jones has consistently been flushed from the pocket and has made plays in space. Additionally, the Giants have been scheming plays to get Jones in space, and I expect them to do that a couple of times in this game.
Wayne Gallman over 2.5 receptions
The Giants leaned heavily on Gallman in the passing game on Thursday Night Football against the Eagles, and I expect them to do so again here. The Buccaneers have a fantastic pass rush and are strong against the run also, so look for the Giants to try and use Gallman on short passes to slow down this pass rush and create offense. In Week 7, Gallman was targeted five times and caught all five. I expect him to see similar usage again in this one.
Wayne Gallman under 10.5 carries
Take the +110 odds on Gallman’s under when it comes to carries because so far this season, he has not seen more than 10 carries in any single game. Devonta Freeman is still the named starter and should get the first shot. Look for Gallman’s involvement to come when the Giants are chasing the game when he will be more involved catching the ball than carrying.
Other prop bets to consider heading into Monday Night Football
I just want to throw this one out as it is a little bit of fun, but the last time Tom Brady and Logan Ryan faced off, the game ended with Ryan returning a pick-six. You can find Ryan at +1100 to intercept Brady at any time in this game. If you don’t want to bet on Ryan specifically getting an interception, Brady is around +135 to throw an interception. However, if the weather looks like it could make passing tough, I would rather put a small play on Ryan than a bigger play on Brady, given the form the latter has been in the last couple of weeks.
Brady for MVP?
If NFL futures are more your thing when it comes to a long-shot play, then Tom Brady can be found at around +1300 to win the MVP this season. If he has a good game here, then those odds could come down to below +1000. Outside of Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes, there is arguably no one who makes more sense for a mid-season NFL futures play than Brady right now. Additionally, Brady will renew his connection with Antonio Brown in Week 9, which could see his chances to win the award go through the roof given the way the two connected for New England last season.
New York Jets to go 0-16?
Coming out of their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, the New York Jets are around +250 on the NFL futures market to go 0-16 this season. When you look through their schedule, it is hard to see where they are winning a game. Unless the Patriots are in full tank mode, it is hard to imagine a Belicheck team losing to an Adam Gase coached team in Week 9 or Week 17. The Jets’ other games are the Chargers, Dolphins, Raiders, Seahawks, Rams, and Browns. Perhaps the only opportunities I can really see for losses on that schedule are the Chargers, Raiders, and Browns, who will be heavy favorites. If you are looking for an NFL futures bet, take the odds this week because they will only go downwards.
Week 8 Sunday Prop Bets
Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions | Sunday, November 1st, 1:00 PM
BR: Trey Burton over 3.5 receptions
Since returning to the field in Week 4, Burton has been a significant part of this Colts offense. He has seen 16 targets through those three games and pulled in 11 receptions. In his last two games, he has nine receptions, making a +106 line for over 3.5 receptions seem like a good value.
Tenessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals | Sunday, November 1st, 1:00 PM
BR: Joe Burrow over 26.5 pass completions
This is going to be a fascinating game between the Bengals and Titans. The Titans defense has not had much success this season, especially on the ground. However, the Bengals rushing offense has not been impressive either, suggesting the Bengals will need to go to the air plenty. The Titans defense has faced the third-most pass attempts at 238, 39.67 per game, and we could see Burrow having to throw it a lot in this game.
The weather is going to be an issue, but I expect the Bengals to look to utilize a short, sharp passing game in order to try and have success in this one. It would not shock me if Burrow ends up throwing the ball close to 50 times in this game, having thrown it 44 times or more in three of his seven games this season.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns | Sunday, November 1st, 1:00 PM
BR: Nelson Agholor over 38.5 receiving yards
Weather is also going to be a problem in this game and while it will stop sustained deep passing, look for the Raiders to try and exploit weaknesses in this Browns pass defense. Agholor is averaging 19.5 yards per reception this season, with over 200 yards combined in his last three games. Look for the Raiders to try and get the ball in his hands, and if they connect on one deep play that could be enough to see the over hit on this line.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens | Sunday, November 1st, 1:00 PM
BR: Lamar Jackson over 0.5 interceptions
This is set to be another bad weather game as the Steelers and Ravens clash in an important matchup for the shape of the AFC North. Jackson and the Ravens offense will look to lean on the run in the wind and rain, but will still have to go to the air.
The Steelers pass defense ranks third in the league with eight interceptions and had forced a turnover in every game they had played before last week. Jackson has only thrown 11 interceptions in his career, but three of those came in his start against the Steelers in Week 5 of the 2019 season.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears | Sunday, November 1st, 4:25 PM
BR: David Montgomery under 51.5 rushing yards
It has been a tough season for Montgomery, as he has topped 50 yards just once in his last five starts. Things do not get any easier this week as he faces a Saints team allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt, the third-best number in the league. The Saints allowed just 37 rushing yards last week against the Carolina Panthers and have been an extremely difficult team to generate consistent rushing offense against this season.
Alvin Kamara over 6.5 receptions
I usually stay away from high numbers like this but Kamara has been so important to the Saints passing offense this season it is hard not to see a +100 line as value. Kamara has been targeted eight or more times in five of the Saints six games this season, pulling in eight or more receptions in four of those five. With Michael Thomas still out, Kamara is the bulk of the offense for the Saints in this matchup.
Week 8 Sunday Night Football Prop Bets
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | Sunday, November 1st, 8:20 PM
BR: Ezekiel Elliott over 3.5 receptions
This line immediately seemed too low, so to be able to get it at +120 feels like a steal to me. Sure Zeke has struggled in two of his last three games, with just one reception in each. However, in between that he had eight receptions against the Cardinals and has had more success in other games this season. In four of the Cowboys seven games, Zeke has topped four receptions and got to three receptions in a fifth. Elliott needs to be a huge part of this offense if the Cowboys are to have a chance in Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football.
Week 8 Thursday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers | Thursday, October 29th, 8:20 PM
BR: Todd Gurley over 63.5 rushing yards
Gurley has not had a huge amount of success in his first season in Atlanta but this matchup is a repeat of his most successful outing of the season so far. When these two teams last met, Gurley had over 100 rushing yards.
The Panthers rank 28th in the league in yards per rush attempt, so Gurley should be able to find success again this time out. Carolina has allowed over 100 rush yards in six of their seven games this season, and with Gurley the main ball carrier in Atlanta, look for him to get the majority of those yards.
Atlanta Falcons +7.5 & under 57 points
This should be an incredibly close game between division rivals. The Panthers came out on top in the first matchup but the Atlanta Falcons have Julio Jones back which should make a distance. These two teams played out a relatively sedate 23-16 matchup in Week 5. I expect this game to be slightly higher scoring, but 57 is a lot of points to be able to tease this one too. Only one Panthers game has gone over 57 and that was back in Week 1. Look for this to be a tight game, finishing in the 24-21 region this week.
Other prop bets to consider in the Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup
The two receivers in Carolina are both impressive and the over is extremely tempting for both of their receiving yards. Robby Anderson’s line sits just over the 70-yard mark and he has gone over that in all but one game this season. As for D.J. Moore, his line is generally sitting below 70, a total he has gone beyond in each of the last three weeks, hitting 93 in each game. Both overs are in play but I do not tend to lock in receiving yardage over 50 yards.
In terms of anytime touchdown odds, there is not a lot of value to be found on the currently listed odds. The touchdowns are likely to be shared among, Gurley, Anderson, Moore, Jones, Calvin Ridley, and the Panthers running backs. Steer clear of this angle and focus on the player props and teasers this week.