It’s Week 9 already?! This season is flying by, but luckily for us football fans, we have a tremendous slate of games today to bet on. With 11 games for today’s Sunday slate after the Germany game, which sides, totals, and player props should you be targeting with your NFL picks? Let’s check out the NFL Week 9 predictions and favorite bets from the PFN betting team.
NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:00 AM EST. Click here to place your bets!
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Odds
- Spread
Packers -3.5 - Moneyline
Rams +160, Packers -192 - Total
38
Blewis: One team might be starting a backup quarterback in this matchup, but I’m on unders in this matchup because of the other team.
Since scoring 62 combined points in their first two games, the Packers offense has been averaging 15.6 PPG and hasn’t scored a first-half touchdown. The struggles of their offense mainly come down to the play of Jordan Love, who is the 25th-ranked QB in EPA/play + CPOE.
It seems unlikely that Matthew Stafford will be active for this one as well, meaning Brett Rypien will likely get the start, and he is one of the worst backup QBs in the NFL.
Picks: Under 19.5 first half (-125 at FanDuel), Packers under 21.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans Odds
- Spread
Texans -3 - Moneyline
Buccaneers +130, Texans -155 - Total
40
Katz: I have strayed from my roots over the past few weeks, neglecting my cash cow: Knowing Rachaad White is very bad at running the football. Well, we’re back this week.
This is a very high line for a guy who has reached 40 rushing yards just twice all season. Over his past three games, his rushing totals have been 26, 34, and 39 yards.
MORE: Blewis’ NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread
This week, the Bucs get a Texans defense that has smothered opposing running backs, surrendering just 3.4 yards per carry. Head coach Todd Bowles also openly spoke about getting White the ball more in the passing game. That is how White is best used — not as a runner. I expect him to struggle on the ground, as usual.
Pick: Rachaad White under 50.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots Odds
- Spread
Patriots -2.5 - Moneyline
Commanders +130, Patriots -155 - Total
41
Blewis: I know the Commanders had a fire sale at the trade deadline and essentially punted on the rest of the season, but this still feels like too many points. Montez Sweat and Chase Young were obviously their two best edge rushers, but their defense was allowing the fourth-most yards per game and was just 24th in pass rush win rate with them. Is their defense really going to be much worse?
I’m also not confident in the Patriots offense against anybody, especially after losing Kendrick Bourne for the season, who has been their best player on offense.
I may end up playing Washington straight up, but for now, I teased them up to +9 with the Browns. Even if the Commanders lose, I can’t see the Patriots putting up enough points to win by double digits.
Pick: Commanders +9/Browns -2 in a 6-point tease (-120 at DraftKings)
Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints Odds
- Spread
Saints -9.5 - Moneyline
Bears +350, Saints -445 - Total
42
Bearman: The Saints opened at -7.5, and I was hoping to grab a seven here against the Bears. But since then, the number has gone the other way, which is not surprising considering how poorly the Bears looked last week.
Anything above eight is just too high for me, so the main play here is to tease it down through key numbers of seven and three and pair it with a similar one, such as the Browns, Bills, Giants, or Panthers, who all are in the 1.5-2.5 range.
The Bears are awful, as we saw last Sunday night, by even making the Chargers look legit.
Pick: Saints -2.5/Browns -2 in a 6-point tease (-120 at DraftKings) before the line movement
Katz: D’Onta Foreman’s return to the active roster got off to a strong start. He ran for 65 and 89 yards in his two games as the clear lead back. But last week, things took a turn. Against a tougher Chargers run defense, Foreman was only able to manage 34 yards on nine carries. He also played just 32% of the snaps.
The Bears have no allegiance to Foreman. They made him a healthy inactive from Weeks 2-5 for a reason. They want Roschon Johnson to be the guy. As long as Johnson continues to play reasonably well, he’s going to continue to earn more work.
Foreman is unlikely to see more than 8-10 carries. The Bears are heavy underdogs, likely to face negative game script. And the Saints have a good run defense, allowing just 78 rushing yards per game.
Pick: D’Onta Foreman under 41.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Katz: Outside of a select few quarterbacks, passing touchdowns are largely random. Derek Carr has only thrown multiple touchdowns twice this season. Even with the Saints as touchdown favorites, they can easily score all of their touchdowns on the ground. It is even more likely given the increased role they’ve given to Taysom Hill recently, particularly around the goal line.
Carr’s struggles in the red zone are well-documented. If this is the week he manages to connect for multiple scores, so be it. At these odds, I’m down to gamble on a perceived coin flip that has hit 71% of the time this season.
Pick: Derek Carr under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-110 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds
- Spread
Falcons -4 - Moneyline
Vikings +164, Falcons -198 - Total
37.5
Katz: Let me preface this by saying I love Bijan Robinson. In a different world, he’d be putting up Christian McCaffrey numbers. But he’s not in a different world. He’s in this one…on the Falcons…with Arthur Smith as his head coach.
While Robinson did play 74% of the snaps last week, he only saw 11 carries and didn’t see a single target.
Robinson has topped 85 total yards just twice all season. These lines continue to be set so high because of Robinson’s talent and name equity, providing value in doing something as simple as expecting the status quo to remain. We will continue to do so until we see a reason not to.
Pick: Bijan Robinson under 85.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet)
Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns Odds
- Spread
Browns -12.5 - Moneyline
Cardinals +350, Browns -700 - Total
38
Blewis: This line has moved considerably in the Browns’ favor since the odds came out on Sunday night, with a lot of it having to do with the return of Deshaun Watson. We’re not sure if he will be at full strength, and as bad as he has been, he still is a huge upgrade over PJ Walker, who has 22.6 QBR for the season (that’s out of 100).
But is this spread too high now for a game with such a low total? Per Evan Abrams at The Action Network, the Cardinals are the only team this season that hasn’t received the majority of the bets on the spread in a single game.
Still, I understand the hesitation in backing the Cardinals here. Josh Dobbs, who was providing competent quarterback play for them, is gone, and rookie fifth-round pick Clayton Tune is expected to start. Tune is a complete unknown and has a very unfavorable environment for his first career start — at Cleveland against the NFL’s top-ranked defense.
One factor in the Cardinals’ favor is that this could be a look-ahead spot for Cleveland, as they play at Baltimore next week. I’d play the under, but I’m worried about turnovers here, so I’m going to go with a two-leg parlay that plays into the narrative of a conservative game plan from Cleveland to just escape with a win.
Pick: Deshaun Watson under 1.5 passing TDs, Browns -6.5 (+126 at DraftKings)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds
- Spread
Ravens -6.5 - Moneyline
Seahawks +240, Ravens -298 - Total
44
Bearman: If not for Dolphins-Chiefs in Germany and Cowboys-Eagles, this might be the game of the week with two hot division leaders. Both teams are 6-2, with three of the four combined losses by one possession.
I’m going to take Seattle here. Based on the fact that I don’t think there is a 5.5-point difference between the two teams or even three if you take out home-field advantage. They’re each solid on both sides of the ball, and I expect a close one.
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Seattle has been way more consistent of the two teams, only losing a tight one to Cincinnati since not showing up for the opener. The Ravens have been just as successful but looked awful in losses to the Colts and Steelers.
I expect the Ravens to win, but this should come down to the wire.
Pick: Seattle +6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Well, I guess I’m heads up with Bearman on this one. Seattle being nearly a touchdown underdog almost feels like a trap, and I’m not going to fall for it.
I believe there is a far bigger gap between these two teams than their near-identical records indicate. The Ravens are two flukey losses away from being undefeated, as they thoroughly outplayed both the Colts and Steelers in those two games, and they’re currently the top-ranked team by DVOA.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, haven’t been tested on the road since their overtime win over the Lions, which was seven weeks ago. They put up 24 points against an elite Browns defense last week, but 17 of them came in the first quarter, and Walker’s turnovers basically gifted them that game. Against the Ravens, they won’t have the same luxury of going against one of the worst QBs in the NFL this season.
I also think Seattle’s defense comes into this game very overrated. Since allowing 29.33 PPG in the first three weeks, they have allowed just 12.5 PPG in the four games since, but look at their opponents during that stretch — the Giants, Bengals with a banged-up Joe Burrow, Cardinals, and Browns.
Pick: Ravens -5.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
Katz: Now, this is someone who has not been struggling on the ground. Gus Edwards has been as hot as anyone. He’s amassed 64 and 80 yards in each of his past two games. That makes fading him this week a little more difficult. However, the matchup justifies it.
The Seahawks have been the best run defense in the league this season. They allow just 3.1 ypc to running backs and just 67 rushing yards per game. Look for the Ravens to rely more on their passing game to move the ball, limiting Edwards to 10-12 carries and preventing him from reaching 50 rushing yards.
Pick: Gus Edwards under 54.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers Odds
- Spread
Colts -2 - Moneyline
Colts -135, Panthers +114 - Total
45
Blewis: There has been a lot of praise for the Panthers offense and making the switch from Frank Reich to OC Thomas Brown as the play-caller after last week’s win, but they still scored only 15 points and generated just 224 yards of offense. If not for the Jets and Giants, who set offensive football back at least a decade in their matchup, the Panthers would’ve had the worst offensive success rate of any team last week.
The Colts allowed the Saints to put up 511 yards of offense last week, and teams have scored 37, 39, and 38 points against them in the last three weeks. In those three games, however, there was a combined 13 turnovers, which certainly played a factor in the high point totals. Even with Gardner Minshew and Bryce Young, there’s gotta be some regression with takeaways in Colts games eventually.
Against this Panthers offense, who I’m still not close to buying, I like this as a get right spot for the Colts defense.
Pick: Under 45 (-110 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Over the past four weeks, the Colts are passing at a rate roughly 3% below expectation, a downward trend from the first month of the season. That shouldn’t be surprising with Jonathan Taylor back in the mix, and it is something I expect to be sticky this week against the fifth-worst per-carry run defense in the league.
When the Panthers have the ball, they have a former running back calling the plays with a rookie QB – why would we think they open things up at all?
Carolina has cleared 21 points just twice this season, and in those games, they went away from the ground game (99 pass attempts and 37 rush attempts). I don’t see this game shooting out or being one-sided, and that means a lot of running the ball.
The beauty in this pick? I could be wrong. Maybe Indy runs wild. Well, if that’s the case, they are more than capable of bleeding clock late and keeping this possession count in check.
Pick: Carolina Panthers under 21.5 points (-122 at DraftKings)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds
- Spread
Eagles -3 - Moneyline
Cowboys +136, Eagles -162 - Total
47
Bearman: This one is going to be fantastic. The battle for the NFC East with the Cowboys coming off two great wins and the Eagles righting the ship after their loss to the Jets.
The spread implies it’s even with Philadelphia being at home. I have Philly rated higher than Dallas, so there is some value here with the home team. Having sat in Lincoln Financial Field two weeks ago, I can tell you that it’s not an easy place to play or win. Going with the home team minus the field goal here.
Pick: Eagles -3 (-108 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Since taking over this backfield for Kenneth Gainwell, D’Andre Swift is averaging 16.6 carries per game, much of that coming with a healthier version of Jalen Hurts than what we currently have.
MORE: NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
There is no doubt that this is a big game, but I expect the Eagles to take a long-term view when it comes to the health of their franchise quarterback. Philadelphia has their bye next week (followed by games against the Chiefs and Bills), so if there is a spot to “rest” their QB’s legs, this is the spot.
Swift has no rushing competition in the RB room, and against a middling run defense, he’s in a good position to produce above expectations. The threat of Hurts still has to be accounted for by the Cowboys, something that has me buying the fact that 62.4% of Swift’s carries come against a light box (eighth highest).
Pick: D’Andre Swift over 56.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds
- Spread
Raiders -1.5 - Moneyline
Giants +105, Raiders -125 - Total
37.5
Bearman: This game should have a total like the Iowa-Northwestern game of 29.5, considering neither team can move the ball. The Giants are averaging a league-low 11.9 PPG, and that’s with a 31-point second-half outburst in Arizona in Week 2. Take that out, and it’s 9.1!
The Raiders are almost as bad, not scoring more than 21 points in any game this season. Their performance Monday night was awful, minus one Josh Jacobs drive in the first half. I’m playing under 37.5 and not thinking twice. This is my favorite play of the week.
Pick: Under 37.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Soppe: This game is unlikely to be a work of art, but that doesn’t mean we can’t get exposure that makes sense.
This season, in Daniel Jones’ five starts, the Giants have been held scoreless in 11 (of 20) quarters, and they are believed to have the quarterback advantage in this spot. What a world.
Both running backs in this game have a rush attempt total north of 17 and a rushing yardage total north of 70 yards. I’m not saying this game is going to set football back 50 years, but I’m not saying it won’t.
When dealing with a low-octane game like this, it’s important to acknowledge the lesser-respected stats. Both of these teams are below-average squads in pace of play and top seven in net yards per punt. A slow battle-of-field-position contest. What better way to spend a lovely Sunday afternoon?
Pick: Under 37 points with a scoreless quarter (+244 at DraftKings)
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