Blewis’ NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Bet on Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Derek Carr This Week

    Our NFL Week 9 predictions and picks against the spread include the Chiefs, Ravens, and a bunch of unders for a slate featuring very low totals.

    As I do every week, I gave out my initial NFL Week 9 picks on Sunday night after the odds first came out. Since then, however, we have gained some clarity on injury news to several key players, and I’ve had more time to analyze the NFL Week 9 odds as well. So, without further ado, here are my NFL Week 9 predictions and picks for every game for this upcoming slate.

    NFL Week 9 Predictions and Picks

    All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook

    Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Odds

    • Spread
      Steelers -2.5
    • Moneyline
      Titans +122, Steelers -144
    • Total
      36.5

    I mentioned in our Thursday Night Football picks article that I’m on the under here, as I’ll never trust the Steelers offense to put up points and am not buying Will Levis just yet. It’s extremely low, but I still think this is another winning under for a prime-time game.

    Pick: Under 36.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

    Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds

    • Spread
      Chiefs -1.5
    • Moneyline
      Dolphins +108, Chiefs -126
    • Total
      50.5

    I liked the Chiefs when it was at -2.5, so I like it even more obviously at -1.5. There are a couple of concerns here, however, most notably the struggles of the Chiefs wide receivers, the addition of Jalen Ramsey to this Dolphins defense, and the fact notable players such as Jevon Holland, Xavien Howard, and Connor Williams are all set to return for Miami this week.

    MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 9

    Even still, I don’t fully trust the Dolphins going against an elite team or a defense as strong as Kansas City’s. This could come back to bite me, but I’ll roll with Patrick Mahomes as a short favorite, which has been extremely profitable over his career (19-6-1 when the spread is three points or less).

    Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

    Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers Odds

    • Spread
      Packers -3
    • Moneyline
      Rams +146, Packers -174
    • Total
      38.5

    While we don’t know definitively whether Matthew Stafford will be playing or not this week, the spread here indicates that the Rams are expected to be without their starting quarterback. No matter who is playing quarterback for the opposing team, though, I don’t believe Green Bay deserves to be favored by at least a field goal against anybody. They have been that bad.

    My favorite play here is taking the Packers’ team total under of 21.5 points. They have only hit this number once this season, coming in a game in which they generated just 224 yards of offense in a 25-24 loss to the Atlanta Falcons.

    Pick: Packers under 21.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans Odds

    • Spread
      Texans -3
    • Moneyline
      Buccaneers +126, Texans -148
    • Total
      40

    I liked Tampa when they were getting 2.5 points on Sunday night, and since then, the spread has only gone up. I’m worried that the Texans are starting to get overvalued because of how impressive C.J. Stroud has been as a rookie. They have generated less than 300 yards of offense in three straight games and could continue to struggle against an underrated Bucs defense.

    I think these are pretty evenly matched and similar teams, which is why I lean towards the Bucs, considering they’re getting a field goal here.

    Pick: Buccaneers +3 (-115 at FanDuel)

    Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots Odds

    • Spread
      Patriots -3.5
    • Moneyline
      Commanders +152, Patriots -180
    • Total
      40.5

    Since these odds came out on Sunday night, Washington traded away its two best pass rushers in Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Washington’s defense obviously takes a major hit without Sweat and Young, but they weren’t making much of a difference to begin with. For the season, they’re allowing the fourth-most yards per game and were just 24th in pass-rush win rate.

    MORE: NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds

    But still, as bad as this defense is, can the Patriots put up points against anybody? I was initially on the over, but now I’m having concerns about the Patriots putting up enough points here, considering their wide receiver room got even worse with the injury to Kendrick Bourne, and I can’t trust Mac Jones.

    The spread seems too high for me now not to take Washington, as even with their fire sale, they might be the better team here.

    Pick: Commanders +3.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

    Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints Odds

    • Spread
      Saints -7.5
    • Moneyline
      Bears +300, Saints -375
    • Total
      41

    The Saints finally had their breakout offensive performance last week, putting up 38 points and 511 yards of offense in a win over the Indianapolis Colts. Now, they get to face an even worse defense in the Bears, who are 30th in EPA/play and DVOA.

    I think this is a big mismatch for the Bears on both sides of the ball, as Tyson Bagent played like an undrafted rookie quarterback last week against a bad Los Angeles Chargers defense, and he will now face one of the best units in the NFL.

    Pick: Saints -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

    Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons Odds

    • Spread
      Falcons -4.5
    • Moneyline
      Vikings +190, Falcons -230
    • Total
      37.5

    This will be Jaren Hall vs. Taylor Heinicke — one represents a massive downgrade at quarterback, while the other could be an upgrade.

    I was initially on the Falcons here, but on second thought, this might be too many points. Although it’s hard to trust a fifth-round rookie QB in his first career start on the road, he has plenty of help around him in Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and one of the best offensive lines in football. The Falcons also just lost Grady Jarrett for the season — a huge blow to a defensive line that is 28th in pass-rush win rate.

    Will the Falcons lose to a rookie quarterback in their first career start two weeks in a row? Maybe not, but we’re just asking the Vikings to lose by four or fewer points here. I’m going to wait to see if the line continues to go up for this one, though.

    Pick: Lean Vikings +4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

    Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns Odds

    • Spread
      Browns -7.5
    • Moneyline
      Cardinals +310, Browns -390
    • Total
      37.5

    It seems unlikely that Kyler Murray returns this week, meaning Clayton Tune, a fifth-round rookie QB, will be making his first career start in Cleveland against the top-ranked defense in the NFL. If the Browns can just play turnover-free football, they should win this game convincingly, but no matter who is playing quarterback for them, that’s the risk of taking them covering this many points.

    Instead, I’ll play them down to -1.5 in a 6-point tease with the Saints.

    Pick: Browns -1.5 and Saints -1.5 in a 6-point teaser (-134 at FanDuel)

    Seattle Seahawks vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds

    • Spread
      Ravens -5.5
    • Moneyline
      Seahawks +210, Ravens -295
    • Total
      42.5

    The Seahawks put up 24 points against an elite Browns defense last week, but 17 of those came in the first quarter, and they didn’t score again until they went up 24-20 with 0:38 remaining in the game. They were able to capitalize on three turnovers from PJ Walker, including an interception, before they scored their go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth.

    MORE: NFL Week 9 Odds and Betting Trends Against the Spread

    Against the Ravens, they’ll be playing an equally talented defense, and instead of Walker, they will be facing Lamar Jackson, who is playing at an MVP level.

    This feels like a lot of points, considering it’s a matchup between two teams in first place in competitive divisions, but I’ll give a slight edge to the Ravens here and the points. We saw them in a similar spot just two weeks away against the Detroit Lions, and they won 38-6. As long as this stays under six points, I like the Ravens.

    Pick: Ravens -5.5 (-118 at FanDuel)

    Indianapolis Colts vs. Carolina Panthers Odds

    • Spread
      Colts -2.5
    • Moneyline
      Colts -152, Panthers +128
    • Total
      44.5

    Carolina was supposed to turn a corner offensively coming out of its bye week with OC Thomas Brown taking over play-calling duties, but they scored just 15 points and generated only 224 yards of offense in a win over the Texans. The Panthers’ offense ranked 30th in success rate last week, only ahead of the New York Jets and New York Giants, who set offensive football back at least a decade in their matchup.

    I was on their over last week, but this week, even against this horrific Colts defense, I’m leaning toward the opposite direction. The Saints put up 511 yards of offense against them last week, but the Colts have far better personnel offensively than the Panthers. If the Colts’ defense needed a bounce-back spot, this would be it.

    Pick: Under 44.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

    Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds

    • Spread
      Eagles -3
    • Moneyline
      Cowboys +146, Eagles -174
    • Total
      46

    This is the first matchup between Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts since 2021, which was just Hurts’ seventh career start. Since then, he has improved tremendously, and with the two quarterbacks finally having a head-to-head matchup since Hurts’ ascension, this is a very highly anticipated game, even for the standards of this rivalry.

    The Eagles’ home-field advantage will certainly be a factor here. Dating back to the start of last season, Hurts is 10-1 at home, and the Eagles have scored at least 21 points in all of those games.

    In recent games, however, Prescott has had his way with this Philly defense. Although one of the games was against the Eagles’ backups, Prescott has thrown for 11 TDs and one INT in three games vs. Philly since Nick Sirianni became the head coach. Obviously, he doesn’t run the defense, and they have a new defensive coordinator this season, but it’s still the same bend-but-don’t-break scheme that Prescott has had a lot of success with.

    I’m expecting a back-and-forth battle here, with both teams having their way offensively.

    Pick: Over 46 (-110 at FanDuel)

    New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

    • Spread
      Raiders -1.5
    • Moneyline
      Giants +108, Raiders -130
    • Total
      37.5

    Unfortunately, we no longer have the opportunity to fade Josh McDaniels as a favorite. Replacing McDaniels is Antonio Pierce, and since 2010, interim head coaches in their debut games are 15-10 ATS. Of those 25 games, however, the team with the new head coach has been favored seven times, going 4-3 ATS, so these trends aren’t really helpful. Sorry for wasting your time.

    MORE: Updated Super Bowl Odds

    The Raiders are making a change at both head coach and quarterback, as rookie Aidan O’Connell was announced as the team’s starter this week. In his first career start, O’Connell struggled mightily against a bad Chargers defense, finishing with a QBR of just six (this is out of 100).

    Daniel Jones will be back for the Giants. Although he might not be much of an upgrade, if at all, from Tyrod Taylor, he can at least complete a pass for positive yardage, unlike Tommy DeVito. But the Giants’ offense is already really short on weapons, and they’ll most likely be without Darren Waller. If Andrew Thomas is still unable to return from injury, Maxx Crosby should have a field day against this offensive line.

    Pick: Under 37.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

    Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds

    • Spread
      Bengals -1.5
    • Moneyline
      Bills +114, Bengals -134
    • Total
      49.5

    Count me in as a buyer of the Bengals being officially back. After a much-needed bye week, it appears Joe Burrow is completely healthy and back to his usual form. They put up 31 points and 400 yards of offense against one of the best defenses in the NFL, and they get a matchup against a Bills defense that remains depleted.

    These are probably two evenly matched teams, and I lean toward the Bengals because they are giving less than two points at home. The Bills will be coming off a long week, however, and their 24-18 win last week looks a lot closer than it actually was, but I still give the slight edge to the Bengals here. Not a strong play.

    Pick: Lean Bengals -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

    Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets Odds

    • Spread
      Chargers -3
    • Moneyline
      Chargers -172, Jets +144
    • Total
      40.5

    The Jets are coming off perhaps the least gratifying win of the season, even if it came against their in-state rivals, but they have had a lot of success against the best quarterbacks this year. They went 2-1 during a gauntlet of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts, and those three quarterbacks combined for three TDs and eight INTs.

    After a dominant performance over the Bears, this will be a tough matchup for the Chargers’ offense going against this dominant Jets defense. Zach Wilson’s development feels a bit overstated as well, as their passing offense ranks last in terms of EPA and success rate.

    Pick: Under 40.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

    Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.

    Listen to the PFN Betting Podcast

    Listen to the PFN Betting Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Betting Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review!

    Related Articles