According to John Ewing at BetMGM, the betting public has been on fire with their NFL picks so far this season. Through the first four weeks of the season, NFL teams getting the majority of bets on the spread are 32-24 ATS (57%).
With the betting public on a hot streak, which teams are getting the most action on the spread this week? According to BetMGM, after the Buffalo Bills in London, two favorites in the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens have received the most bets to cover the spread this week.
At DraftKings, however, no team has received a greater majority of the spread bets than the Miami Dolphins. When the NFL betting lines came out on Sunday, the Dolphins were 9.5-point favorites against the New York Giants. But soon after the Giants got embarrassed in prime time (again), the line quickly went into the double digits.
We know the public’s favorite sides this week, but what about the PFN betting team? Let’s dive into our NFL Week 5 predictions, picks against the spread, favorite player prop bets, and more.
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NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. Click here to place your bets!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Prediction
- Spread
Bills -5.5 - Moneyline
Jaguars +190, Bills -230 - Total
48.5 - Game Time
9:30 a.m. EST - Location
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium - How To Watch
NFL Network
Bearman: Count me among those who fell for the “Bills aren’t that good” theory after Week 1’s loss to the New York Jets and Zach Wilson. I went so far as to take the Las Vegas Raiders and the points the following week and lost that one handsomely.
MORE: NFL Player Props Week 5
Well, after their beatdown of the Dolphins, I’m back to being a believer that not only are the Bills good, but they may be scary good. They’ve averaged 41 points per game since the loss to the Jets and, just as impressively, have held their opponents to 33 total points, including the Dolphins’ high-flying offense to 20 last week.
The Jags looked good last week in London, but that was vs. the Falcons. This is a step up in competition, and the result will show that.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Bills -5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Blewis:Â The Jaguars had a nice bounce-back win against the Falcons in London last week, but they benefited greatly from Desmond Ridder’s terrible performance, who had three turnovers and finished with a QBR of 10.6.
The Jags’ offense should see some positive regression sooner than later, but it won’t be this week.
Although they’ll be without their best cornerback in Tre’Davious White, this Bills defense is entering this game as one of the best defenses in the NFL, right up there with the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, and San Francisco 49ers.
They also might be getting Von Miller back this week against a Jags OL that is 29th in pass block win rate.
I’m going with the Jaguars team total under here, just in case the Bills’ offense has another lights-out performance. With how they have been playing, they could go over this total by themselves.
NFL Pick and Prediction:Â Jaguars team total under 21.5 (-138 at FanDuel)
Soppe: The Bills are not just having to work with driving on the wrong side of the road this week. They are also adapting on the fly to life without cornerback Tre’Davious White (Achilles).
Here is what the most targeted receiver has done against the Bills in Buffalo’s last six games played without their star corner.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 9 catches, 122 yards, TD (10 targets)
- Amari Cooper: 8 catches, 113 yards, 2 TD (12 targets)
- Justin Jefferson: 10 catches, 193 yards, TD (16 targets)
- Garrett Wilson: 8 catches, 92 yards (9 targets)
- Romeo Doubs: 4 catches, 62 yards, TD (7 targets)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: 5 catches, 113 yards, TD (5 targets)
Ridley was averaging 8.7 targets per game through three weeks before drawing a shadow from A.J. Terrell last week that prevented Trevor Lawrence from tempting fate (two targets). Assuming he sees 7 to 10 looks in this game, Ridley backers could be printing money as they enjoy their morning coffee.
NFL Picks and Predictions: Calvin Ridley ladder — Over 53.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel, one unit), 70+ receiving yards (+168, half unit), and 90+ receiving yards (+320, quarter unit)
Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction
- Spread
Falcons -1.5 - Moneyline
Texans +101, Falcons -121 - Total
41.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Mercedes-Benz Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman: In four games, the Texans seem to be better than most thought they would be. Outside of the opening-day loss to the Ravens, they have been competitive in every game, knocking off the Jags and Steelers in the last two. DeMeco Ryans has the Texans headed in the right direction, and rookie C.J. Stroud looks like the real deal.
Now, the Texans get a Falcons team that is fresh off a bad loss in London vs. the Jags and didn’t even get the post-London bye week. Atlanta has 13 total points since their 2-0 start, and coming back from overseas without the bye certainly doesn’t help.
I like the dog here and will play Houston in moneyline parlays.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Texans +2 (-110 at DraftKings earlier this week)
Blewis:Â Bijan Robinson has looked as good as advertised coming out of Texas and being drafted in the top 10 as a running back. So far this season, he is averaging 79.5 rushing yards per game and six yards per carry.
Robinson only has 24 combined carries over the last two weeks because the Falcons were down by at least two scores by halftime in both games. Even against a Jaguars run defense that was third best in EPA/play going into last week, Robinson had 14 carries for 105 yards.
After being road underdogs (including a game in London) two weeks in a row, the Falcons are short home favorites again this week, and it’s an advantageous matchup for Robinson. The traditional run defense statistics against the Texans are a bit deflated by their early big leads two weeks in a row, but they rank just 25th in EPA/play and success rate.
This might be a bounce-back spot for the Falcons, and if so, Robinson should have a big day. But regardless, as long as this is close, I feel good about him going over this number. Only Tyler Allgeier and Arthur Smith stand in our way.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Bijan Robinson over 77.5 rushing yards (-105 at DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction
- Spread
Lions -10 - Moneyline
Panthers +370, Lions -480 - Total
44 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Ford Field - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: I was extremely low on the Carolina Panthers offense going into the season, but they’re far worse than I could’ve imagined. Bryce Young looks the most like a rookie of the three first-round quarterbacks, and he has a very underwhelming supporting cast offensively. The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, are much better than I previously gave them credit for.
The Lions have a top-10 defense in EPA per play so far this season, and they’re facing a Panthers offense that is averaging 13.33 ppg with Young under center. I liked the under earlier this week when it was at 43.5, so I like it even more at 44.5. I’m glad I waited.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110 at FanDuel earlier this week)
Katz: It has been a steady decline for Miles Sanders in performance this season. After carrying the ball 18 times for 72 yards in Week 1, Sanders’ ypc is now down to 2.9 after three dismal showings.
Over his past two games, Sanders has run for 24 and 19 yards. Additionally, Chuba Hubbard’s role has been increasing. He outsnapped Sanders for the first time all season last week, pushing Sanders below the 50% mark.
This week, the Panthers have a road date as heavy underdogs against the Lions. Not only should the game script work against them, forcing them to throw more, but when they do run, they aren’t likely to get very far.
The Lions allow just 2.9 ypc and have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards on the season. Even if Sanders sees 10-12 carries, I still don’t think he gets there.
As we well know, the Detroit Lions have two different starting quarterbacks. Last week, we hit on Jared Goff with under 1.5 passing touchdowns because they started Road Goff. This week, we get Home Goff.
Home Goff has thrown at least two touchdowns in 13 of his last 15 starts. The odds are in our favor that he does it again.
NFL Picks and Predictions: Miles Sanders under 40.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings), Jared Goff over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125 at PointsBet)
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Prediction
- Spread
Titans -2.5 - Moneyline
Titans -130, Colts +110 - Total
42.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Lucas Oil Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: I liked Tennessee earlier in the week when they were underdogs, but the spread has moved a lot since, with the Titans now being favored.
It’s hard to get a read on this Titans team. They’re 2-2, with their two losses coming against two top-10 defenses in the Cleveland Browns and New Orleans Saints, and one of their wins came against a Cincinnati Bengals team that is an absolute mess right now. We shouldn’t discredit that Bengals win by any means, however, as it was a complete beatdown on both sides of the football by the Titans.
On the surface, the Indianapolis Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL, as they rank 22nd in points allowed and 29th in yards allowed per game. They struggle the most in their run defense, as they have allowed 350 rushing yards over the last two weeks. Unfortunately for them, they’re facing Derrick Henry this week, who is coming off his best game of the season.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Titans -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel earlier this week)
New York Giants vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction
- Spread
Dolphins -12.5 - Moneyline
Giants +525, Dolphins -750 - Total
47.5 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Hard Rock Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman:Â Whereas I do believe the Dolphins line is too low, and they should cover based on what we saw Monday night out of the Giants, it is still a big number to lay in the NFL. Instead, I am going to pivot and draw up the rare 2-team teaser.
I say rare because I often avoid teasers entirely, but will play one if I can find two games I like and can go through key numbers. In this case, I teased Dolphins down through 10 and 7 and will be -4.5 in this bet. With their explosiveness and the Giants’ lack of offense, this shouldn’t be an issue.
I will pair the Dolphins with Texans +8, teased through 3 and 7. I like the Texans to win against Atlanta, as I think many are sleeping on C.J. Stroud and this young team. Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off a poor showing in London with no bye week in between.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Dolphins -4.5, Texans +8 2-leg teaser (-120 at DraftKings earlier this week)
Katz: I am kicking myself for not taking Wan’Dale Robinson over 2.5 receptions on Monday night. Now, I hope I’m not falling into the trap of chasing last week’s production.
Fortunately, we are getting plus odds on Robinson to merely catch four passes, something he has done in both games this season.
Last week, Robinson saw his snap share shoot up to 64%. He’s already taken the primary slot receiver role from Parris Campbell. Robinson is probably the most talented receiver on the team. It wouldn’t shock me if his role grew even more this week.
The Giants should be trailing and, thus, throwing to keep pace with the Dolphins’ explosive offense. Since Daniel Jones is incapable of pushing the ball downfield, in part because the Giants offensive line can’t block anyone, look for more short passes to Robinson.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Wan’Dale Robinson over 3.5 receptions (+110 at DraftKings)
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction
- Spread
Ravens -4.5 - Moneyline
Ravens -218, Steelers +180 - Total
38 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Acrisure Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Bearman:Â The previous five meetings between these two teams have all gone under the total, with the highest score being a combined 39 points.
Those games also featured a better Steelers offense than we have seen the past four weeks. Pittsburgh has four offensive touchdowns in four games, ranking 30th in 12.3 PPG offensively, and OC Matt Canada has been under fire.
The Ravens’ offense has been more good than bad, but they have not scored more than 19 points vs. a Mike Tomlin-led Steelers defense since 2020.
I have not been afraid to go under low totals, hitting on both Ravens/Browns U41 last week and Patriots/Jets U38 before that.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 38 (-112 at DraftKings)
Katz: Am I getting suckered here? Why is this line so low? Gus Edwards has gone over this number in each of his last three games. Last week, he operated as the clear lead back, playing 69% of the snaps.
This week, the Ravens get a Steelers defense allowing 4.9 ypc and the second-most rushing yards on the season. We ride the Gus Bus this week.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Gus Edwards has over 43.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots Prediction
- Spread
Patriots -1 - Moneyline
Saints -110, Patriots -112 - Total
39 - Game Time
1 p.m. EST - Location
Gillette Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: I’m eying the under on two props for two players on the Patriots.
Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging a paltry 2.73 yards per carry in four games. He’s gone over this number just once, and it took him 19 carries to barely get there. This week, the Patriots get a Saints defense allowing just 3.6 ypc, and that’s allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards this season.
Here are JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving totals this season: 33, 28, 5, 14. Not only is JuJu not producing, but his role is decreasing every week.
Last week, Smith-Schuster ran a season-low 13 routes, as his snap share dipped below 50%. It is only a matter of time before Demario Douglas usurps him on the depth chart.
It is completely over for Smith-Schuster. If I were to bet on whether he is even in the NFL next year, I would bet no. This might be the last week we even get a line on JuJu.
NFL Picks and Predictions: Rhamondre Stevenson under 53.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings), JuJu Smith-Schuster under 29.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)
Soppe: The next time the Patriots reach 21 points this season will be the first, something that speaks to their lack of upside as a unit. But guess what? It’s even worse than that note suggests.
Two quarters. The Pats have had two good quarters this season. In those two quarters, they racked up 28 points thanks to a variety of odd moving pieces that allowed them to thrive. In their other 14 quarters this season, they’ve managed just 27 points.
MORE: NFL Coach of the Year Odds
The Patriots rank 27th in yards per pass and 28th in yards per rush. They’ve done nothing well consistently and the Saints miss the seventh fewest tackles per game. Neither of these teams wants to play a high-scoring game and in that vein, the possession count could be lower than your average NFL game.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Patriots under 20.5 points (-125 on DraftKings)
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals Prediction
- Spread
Bengals -3 - Moneyline
Bengals -162, Cardinals +136 - Total
44 - Game Time
4:05 p.m. EST - Location
State Farm Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis:Â How can anyone feel confident in betting on the Bengals at the moment, especially as a road favorite? Until we have visual evidence that Joe Burrow looks healthier, I am going to avoid putting any money on this team, especially when their second-best playmaker Tee Higgins is dealing with a rib injury.
The Arizona Cardinals continue to outperform their preseason expectations but finally came up short of beating the spread last week in a failed attempt to backdoor cover. Forget the three points, though; let’s take a chance on winning them outright against a struggling Bengals team.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Cardinals ML (+144 at FanDuel)
Katz: Last week marked the first time all season that James Conner failed to reach 60 rushing yards. He had done it each of the first three weeks.
Conner has been remarkably efficient this season, averaging 5.1 ypc. The only reason he didn’t reach 60 yards last week was because the game script limited him to just 11 carries. His previous low was 14.
MORE: Week 5 NFL Bets and Expert Picks
This week, the Cardinals are only field goal underdogs at home against the Bengals. Given how poorly the Bengals are playing, the game script is unlikely to get away from them. That should allow them to feed Conner 14+ carries.
The Bengals have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards this season, and are allowing 4.9 ypc to opposing running backs. This is a great spot for Conner to once again crush it on the ground.
NFL Pick and Prediction: James Conner over 59.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Katz: Joe Mixon has played well this season, which is a surprise given how anemic the Bengals have been offensively. He’s averaging a respectable 4.1 ypc. He’s also yet to reach 70 rushing yards in a single game.
This isn’t a full fade of Mixon. 70 rushing yards is just a lot, and I don’t think he will see the volume he needs to get there.
The Cardinals are much more vulnerable through the air than on the ground. If the Bengals have any hope of turning their season around, Joe Burrow needs to get going. Look for Arizona to make Burrow beat them, limiting what Mixon can do on the ground.
NFL Pick and Prediction:Â Joe Mixon under 69.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams Prediction
- Spread
Eagles -4 - Moneyline
Eagles -218, Rams +180 - Total
50 - Game Time
4:05 p.m. EST - Location
SoFi Stadium - How To Watch
FOX, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis:Â The Eagles’ offense is back to performing at a very high level, averaging the 5th-most yards per game and having the most efficient rushing attack in the NFL by success rate. It’s their defense that is holding them back, though, particularly in defending the pass. Last week against the Commanders, they allowed them to have a very efficient day throwing the football, completing over 70% of his passes for 290 yards.
Matthew Stafford will be the best quarterback this team has faced all season, and arguably the 2nd-best since the beginning of 2022, after Patrick Mahomes of course.
Their bend-don’t-break defensive scheme is really easy to attack underneath, particularly because they’re weak at safety and linebacker. Through four weeks, the Eagles have given up the 3rd-most completions for the season and the 6th-most passing yards per game.
Stafford, with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the lineup together for the first time this season, shouldn’t have any trouble against this Eagles pass defense. The pass rush is a concern here, but Philly will be without Fletcher Cox, and Stafford should be able to get the ball out fairly quickly.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Over 50 (-112 at DraftKings)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings Prediction
- Spread
Chiefs -3.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs -185, Vikings +154 - Total
53 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
U.S. Bank Stadium - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Blewis: The spread has come down since Sunday, which I’m guessing is due to sharp money on the Minnesota Vikings because the betting public would never bet on Kirk Cousins over Patrick Mahomes.
Even if their offense doesn’t look as explosive as we’re used to seeing, this Kansas City Chiefs unit still has put up the third-most yards per game and is fifth in EPA/play.
I don’t have a strong play for this game, but I would lean toward the over in what should be a bounce-back spot for the Chiefs offense after two uncharacteristic interceptions thrown by Mahomes last week. Plus, we know this Vikings offense is also more than capable of scoring points.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Over 52.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos Prediction
- Spread
Broncos -2.5 - Moneyline
Jets +114, Broncos -135 - Total
43.5 - Game Time
4:25 p.m. EST - Location
Empower Field at Mile High - How To Watch
CBS, Paramount Plus, Fubo TV, NFL Sunday Ticket
Katz: There is no chance any of you can get this line by now. For that, I apologize. Everyone is on Breece Hall this week after Robert Saleh’s comments about the training wheels coming off.
Typically, when something is this obvious and this heavily bet, it doesn’t work out. I’m rolling the dice that the whole world is just right on this one.
The Broncos are allowing a whopping 5.8 ypc. They’ve allowed the most rushing yards in the league, by far.
Despite being less than 100%, Hall is still somehow averaging 6.6 ypc. He got to 56 yards last week on just six carries.
If Hall is truly about to be unleashed, that should mean 10+ carries. Against this defense, I’m confident 10 is enough for Hall to sail past this number.
Piggybacking off the Hall play, I am not buying that Zach Wilson suddenly figured it out. The Broncos can’t stop the run. As a result, I expect the Jets to lean on Hall. That will limit what Wilson has to do through the air.
For as well as Wilson played last week, it’s not as if the Jets suddenly want to be a pass-first team, relying heavily on Wilson’s arm and decision-making. Absent multiple splash plays, or the Jets falling way behind, Wilson should stay below 200 passing yards, as he did each of the first three weeks of the season.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Breece Hall Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel), and Zach Wilson under 204.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: CeeDee Lamb and Gabe Davis. That is the entire list of receivers with a 20-plus-yard catch against the Jets this season. Say what you will about the Jets, but the defense is passable, and if the Broncos don’t hit a big pass, this offense is limited.
On the flip side, Denver’s defense has been lit up of late, that much we know. But they do have an elite corner in Patrick Surtain II and figure to lock him on the primary playmaker that the Jets have in Garrett Wilson.
MORE: NFL Survivor Picks Week 5
The math suggests that any team isn’t likely to have a 40-yard run in a given spot, yes? Outside of two such carries, Breece Hall is averaging 2.8 yards per carry this season, a putrid rate that still ranks ahead of the other member of this committee (Dalvin Cook: 2.5 yards per carry).
That means that if you’re playing the probabilities, points are scored on the ground via Denver’s banged-up backfield or through the air, but not by way of Garrett Wilson, from Zach Wilson. Yeah, I’ll go ahead and invest in these offenses struggling for the majority of this game.
NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 43.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Prediction
- Spread
49ers -3.5 - Moneyline
Cowboys +156, 49ers -186 - Total
45 - Game Time
8:20 p.m. EST - Location
Levi’s Stadium - How To Watch
NBC, Peacock
Bearman:Â It might be time to admit I was too low on the Niners this season. They are the real deal with an offense putting up 31.3 PPG (only behind Miami and Buffalo) and a defense holding their opponents to 14.5 PPG (behind Dallas and Buffalo).
You can doubt if Kyle Shanahan can get it done in February, but there are no longer questions about how good this team is. Purdy is good enough to get it done, and with the weapons he has, they might just be the best team in football.
As for Dallas, I am still not totally on them yet, but this game will go a long way toward possibly changing my mind. I don’t use the transitive approach often, but both teams did just play the Cardinals, with the Niners never really being challenged and the Cowboys never really being in the game in their loss.
The hook on the side is bothersome, but I am going to spend the 24 cents and put it down.
NFL Pick and Prediction: 49ers -3 (-124 at SugarHouse)
Soppe: The 49ers are pacing for a third straight season in which they allow fewer than 4.0 yards per carry. If they shut down Tony Pollard, this could get ugly in a hurry.
With the 49ers consistently among the leaders in time of possession and Brock Purdy leading this offense to 30 points in every game, a lack of Dallas balance could put Dak Prescott in a spot where he is needed to produce big plays. Can he do that in this spot? Consider me skeptical. Here are his recent yards per completion marks:
- 2019-20: 12.5 yards per completion
- 2021-22: 10.9
- 2023: 9.4
San Francisco owns the seventh-lowest blitz rate (eighth highest in hurry rate) through four weeks; a defensive game plan that suggests that chunk plays through the air by this underwhelming Cowboys offense is going to be hard to come by. Let’s cruise through the other teams set to struggle through Week 5.
- Steelers: Trubisky led this team to 6.2 yards/play vs. BAL last season.
- Panthers: High-scoring environment, late points are very possible.
- Texans: Pass-heavy scheme leads to scoring chances, can stop the clock.
- Giants: High-scoring environment, late points are very possible.
- Saints: Expecting Derek Carr to show improved health.
- Titans: The Colts are bottom five in time of possession, Derrick Henry is on track.
- Jets: Face the Broncos …
Fields to Kmet a second time
They've allowed points on 18 of 24 drives (17 touchdowns) https://t.co/lRtu7DjWU2
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN)
This Cowboys/49ers game is the last game on Sunday, giving you a target score. Are you ready to roll the dice?
NFL Pick and Prediction: Dallas Cowboys to be the lowest-scoring team on Sunday (+1700 at FanDuel)
