The Pittsburgh Steelers made a splash late on the final Sunday before the new league year began as they announced the signing of QB Russell Wilson for 2024. With Wilson now set to compete with Kenny Pickett for the starting role, did the signing impact the Steelers’ Super Bowl odds?
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Super Bowl Odds in 2024
Pittsburgh’s Super Bowl odds are quite intriguing because one of the major sportsbooks has far different odds for them than the others. While generally, the Steelers can be found in the +7000 to +8000 range, bet365 has the Steelers at +4000. That puts them above the likes of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and on par with their division rival Cleveland Browns.
For the most part, the arrival of Wilson changed nothing. DraftKings Sportsbook put out a post on X (formerly Twitter) stating that the Steelers odds had not moved with the signing of Wilson. That is not hugely surprising, given that the expectation is that Wilson will have to earn the starting role over Pickett this season.
If Wilson is not even assured of being the starter, why would his arrival boost Pittsburgh’s odds above where they sat when Pickett was set to be the starting quarterback?
The other aspect to that is that we have known for a while the Steelers would be a potential favorite to land Wilson if he was released. Therefore, any perceived rise in their odds likely would have been somewhat baked in when DraftKings installed them as odds-on favorites to sign Wilson.
Wilson is an intriguing acquisition for the Steelers. Last year, he ranked inside the top 10 in passer rating (98.0) and passing touchdowns (26). Additionally, he was third in the league in passing touchdown percentage (5.8) and tied for best in the league with Geno Smith for fourth-quarter comebacks (four).
However, his passing yards per attempt sat at 20th (6.9), and his 43.3% success rate was 23rd, just marginally above Mac Jones and Sam Howell. In terms of his ESPN QBR, Wilson was 21st with a QBR of 50.7. He was also 19th in total expected points added (EPA) with 48.5.
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Those numbers are certainly mixed in terms of what we can expect from Wilson. Still, you will not find many stats where Kenny Pickett finished above him in 2023. Pickett lost time due to injury but was effectively benched for backup quarterback Mason Rudolph down the stretch.
Sure, Pickett is younger and would be expected to continue developing, but as things stand in 2023, Wilson is an upgrade over the third-year pro. Wilson’s 2023 was a slight improvement on his 2022 numbers, and if Arthur Smith can dial up a game plan that allows him to be a little more aggressive, Wilson could benefit.
While Wilson is some distance from the QB who helped the Seattle Seahawks become a perennial double-digit win team, last year was a step toward his best. During that stretch, Wilson was regularly posting passer rating numbers over 100 and a QBR above 60, performing well despite his team’s inconsistencies.
From a pure numbers point of view, Wilson certainly appears to be an upgrade on Pickett, who has a career touchdown percentage below 2%. Would I now bet on the Steelers’ Super Bowl odds? Probably not. But the acquisition seems to improve their chances of extending Mike Tomlin’s streak of finishing .500 or above.
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Wilson would appear to give the Steelers a better chance of both making the playoffs and then winning some playoff games. Winning the division (+1100 at FanDuel) or being able to win three or four playoff games still seems out of reach, but a double-digit win season seems more likely than it did a month or so ago.
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