We are just a matter of hours away from the start of Week 2 of the NFL season. Ahead of the action kicking off, let’s examine the best bets for today’s NFL action from our NFL betting experts.
What Are PFN’s Top Picks Based on the Week 2 Point Spreads?
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are as of Sept. 15. The picks in this article were made throughout the week, so some may have been based on old lines and/or odds. If you are looking for advice on whether a bet should still be made based on current odds, you can message the relevant analyst on X.
@BrianBlewisPFN
@KyleSoppePFN
@DavidBearmanPFN
@JasonKatz13
Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-8)
- Moneyline: Raiders +310, Ravens -395
- Total: 41
I have no interest in backing the Las Vegas Raiders after Antonio Pierce’s very questionable in-game decision-making last week, and Lamar Jackson historically has underperformed as a betting favorite — 15-20 against the spread. Instead of picking either side or the total, I’m rolling with a player prop.
While Rashod Bateman only had two receptions last week, he hauled in 53 yards, including one for a 38-yard gain.
Bateman also was on the field a ton in Week 1, playing in nearly 84% of the offensive snaps. It appears Bateman will be more of Baltimore’s primary deep threat this season (26.4 yards average depth of target), while the Ravens’ other pass catchers will be used in the short-to-immediate passing game.
While we’re working with a small sample size, Bateman’s aDOT was also at least six yards greater than that of all other Ravens players last season.
Considering how often Bateman was on the field and his big-play ability, I like our chances of him going over a low number here.
Pick: Bateman over 25.5 receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings)
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
- Moneyline: Saints +220, Cowboys -270
- Total: 47
Are the New Orleans Saints for real, or did they just beat up a really bad Carolina Panthers team? That remains to be seen. The Dallas Cowboys, however, reminded everyone in Week 1 that, despite their offseason drama, they remain a very formidable threat in the regular season.
The Saints came into this year with a very questionable offensive line. Yet in Week 1, only the Miami Dolphins were pressured on a lower percentage of their dropbacks, and they’re an anomaly because of their quick passing game.
The caveat here is that New Orleans went against a Panthers defense, so the jury is still out. This week, though, the team will be facing a Cowboys defense with a ferocious pass rush led by Micah Parsons.
Last season, Saints quarterback Derek Carr had his struggles under pressure — 20th in passer rating (64.4) and 22nd in estimated points added per dropback among starting quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.
On Sunday, I expect this Saints offense to revert back to reality a bit — and Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense to continue their prowess at home from a year ago.
Pick: Cowboys -6 (-112 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Chargers (-5) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Chargers -230, Panthers +190
- Total: 39
I gave out the Panthers last week (yikes) and until I see any improvement from Bryce Young and this offense, I will not be doing that again.
The Los Angeles Chargers, meanwhile, are 1-0 to start the Jim Harbaugh era, as they leaned heavily on their ground attack. They produced the fifth-most rushing yards, eight-best EPA per rush, and second-highest average yards before contact in Week 1.
With Harbaugh, it seems very apparent that their offensive philosophy will be to establish the run and bleed the clock. Against a Panthers team that lost defensive tackle Derrick Brown for the season, I can see the Bolts having similar success to last week.
Considering that and how inept the Panthers’ offense is, let’s take Carolina’s team total under.
Pick: Panthers under 17.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
Bearman: Don’t click away. I need you to hear me out here. Week 2 is all about overreactions to Week 1 and finding the best value. Not one sane person on this planet wants their hard-earned money on the Carolina Panthers after what they watched last week. But I am here to tell you there is value.
This line opened at 3.5 a few months ago and was still 3.5 before the games were played on Sunday. Yes, the Panthers were awful, but were the Chargers good enough to move that line 2.5 points while flying West Coast to East Coast for a 10a start (1p in Carolina but 10a in body time in LA).
Yes, they won in Harbaugh’s debut, but they didn’t really do anything to impress me vs. a bad Raiders team. They were losing at half time and basically won the field possession game. Now, on top of that, teams in this spot, losing the week before by 35+ points and being an underdog of more than 4 points, have covered at nearly a 74 pct clip over the last 20 years. Hold on to your nose and close your eyes for this one. Take the points!
Pick: Panthers +6
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Minnesota Vikings
- Moneyline: 49ers -218, Vikings +180
- Total: 46
Despite a potential Super Bowl hangover looming, the San Francisco 49ers reminded us last week that they remain a juggernaut.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings took advantage of a terrible New York Giants team, as Sam Darnold was very effective in exploiting the G-Men’s secondary, posting the 11th-highest EPA per dropback of the week.
But how real was that performance from Darnold? We know that he has been a very inconsistent quarterback over his six-year career, to say the least, and a lot of his production last week came from when he had a clean pocket.
- When pressured: 55.6% completion percentage, 6.0 yards per attempt
- When not pressured: 93.3% completion percentage, 10.3 yards per attempt
Simply put, I’m not expecting Darnold to replicate the same magic against a 49ers defense that held Aaron Rodgers to the lowest pressured EPA per dropback among all starting QBs in Week 1.
Pick: 49ers -5 (-108 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +295, Lions -375
- Total: 51
Of everything we saw last week, perhaps we should be most careful about overreacting to Baker Mayfield’s performance and this Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense.
While they definitely have the makings of being a very solid unit this season, they took advantage of a very poor Washington Commanders defense.
In this matchup, I’m expecting the Buccaneers to have little success on the ground against a very stout Detroit Lions run defense. It will force Tampa Bay to be very one-dimensional versus a much-improved secondary.
The Lions are also facing a Buccaneers defense decimated by injuries, and we saw on Sunday night that this unit can win in various ways.
I like the Lions to cover here, but I’m going to wait and see if the line drops back down a bit.
Pick: Lions -7.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Green Bay Packers
- Moneyline: Colts -142, Packers +120
- Total: 40.5
Soppe: Taylor is my single favorite player on the board this week to back, though he’s not the only star I like to rebound from a less than ideal Week 1 and pay off optimistic bettors in a major way.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was handcuffed by the Rams on Sunday Night Football and Jameson Williams took over. Having a reliable shorter yardage option like St. Brown in the mix helped draw attention off of Detroit’s burner and Jared Goff took advantage.
Of course, that impact can go both ways – the increased attention to Williams will help give St. Brown more room to operate underneath. I expect that role to very much be featured in this spot against a Bucs rush defense that, since Week 5, ranks fourth in EPA against running backs.
Over that same stretch, Tampa Bay’s vulnerable secondary (one that is very banged up at the moment) ranks among the five worst in the league in Passer Rating, yards per attempt, and … slot YAC.
Week 1, percentage of snaps in the slot:
- St. Brown: 46.7%
- Kalif Raymond: 27%
- Williams: 25%
This is a sport of picking scabs, and given what Tampa Bay has put on film, it’s possible to see Detroit attack them in a similar fashion to how Ls Angeles used Cooper Kupp against them last weekend.
St. Brown averaged 94.7 receiving yards per game last season, also known as 189.4 yards every two games. I’m not saying he will be back on that pace for this season after Sunday, but I’m not saying he won’t (Week 1: 13 yards).
As for the other side of this game, Mike Evans should be able to produce, though my expectations aren’t as high for him as St. Brown. The sheer volume is rarely overwhelming for the future Hall of Famer (6.5 targets per game over his past six regular-season contests), and given the efficiency from Detroit’s ace (73.1% career catch rate), that makes keeping pace a tall order.
That’s not to say, however, that he will be contained. The Lions own the fourth-highest opponent average depth of throw against since the beginning of last season, giving at least one big play a feeling of inevitability. I’m layering my betting card in such a way that if I connect on one, I’m fine, and hitting both is very much in play.
For what it’s worth, St. Brown to lead the Sunday slate in receptions/receiving yards markets have yet to be released – you better believe I’ll be swimming around those numbers.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown with more receiving yards than Mike Evans (-150 at DraftKings)
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Mike Evans to clear 150 receiving yards total (-115 at DraftKings)
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-1.5)
- seahMoneyline: Giants +100, Commanders -120
- Total: 43.5
You aren’t going to like this pick, but I feel compelled to take the Giants here.
If there’s any team this Giants offense can put up points against, it’s the Commanders, a team Daniel Jones has actually had a lot of success against in his career: 5-1-1 straight up, 6-1 ATS.
After Week 1, the only team people are more down on than the Giants are the Panthers, meaning there’s value to them after Jones’ horrific Week 1 performance.
If there’s any quarterback who can struggle against this Commanders unit, it would be Jones, but recent history tells us that’s unlikely.
I’m going to roll with Danny Dimes and Co. here.
Pick: Giants ML (+108 at FanDuel)
Bearman: In the last 5 matchups between these divisional foes, only one score has topped the current 44.5, and that was the last meeting last year in which a last-play pick-6 took the total from 43 to 50. All the previous four meetings were 40 or lower. And you can argue that both these offenses are the worst they have been in years.
Daniel Jones was awful last week and has been awful for a long time, throwing more TDs to the opponents than his own team since signing his $160M contract. The Giants managed 240 yards and 2 FGs in the opener last week at home. PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe gave him a D grade and ranked him 27th of 32 QBs in PFN’s new QB metric for last week’s performance.
As for the Commanders, they have a new QB in Jayden Daniels, who wasn’t bad in his debut, but he wasn’t great either. He scored twice on the ground after the game was out of hand, but the team only mustered 299 yards of total offense in a game they trailed throughout. I just don’t like either offense and that means the under.
Picks: Under 44.5
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Seahawks -170, Patriots +142
- Total: 38
I’m not buying the New England Patriots as a not-so-bad team just yet after their upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
For one, their offense didn’t inspire much confidence after scoring just 16 points and producing 290 yards against the Bengals’ 19th-ranked defense.
Secondly, while winning straight up as 8.5-point favorites is always an accomplishment, the Bengals historically struggle in Week 1, Burrow didn’t look 100%, and they were missing Tee Higgins.
Thirdly, this is probably a game they should have lost, as the Bengals were unlucky with turnovers and an overturned touchdown.
In this matchup, I anticipate the Patriots’ offense struggling mightily against Mike Macdonald’s Seattle Seahawks defense — even at home.
Although it came against Bo Nix in his first career start, the Seahawks’ defense had a dominant performance last week, finishing with the second-best marks in yards allowed per play (3.3) and success rate (71.0%).
Pick: Under 38.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
- Moneyline: Browns +145, Jaguars -175
- Total: 41.5
Week 1 looked a lot like 2023 for the Jacksonville Jaguars — more self-inflicted mistakes.
While Trevor Lawrence didn’t have his best game, he was once again beaten by his teammates’ errors. Travis Etienne Jr.’s fumble near the end zone up 17-7 late in the third quarter was the biggest example.
For the Cleveland Browns, it’s really hard to trust this team as long as Deshaun Watson is under center, who graded out as the second-worst quarterback in Week 1.
Yet, I believe this line is a bit of an overcorrection in the Jaguars’ direction, as they were two-point favorites before Week 1. Now, you can get the Browns getting a field goal, though I would wait to see if this gets back up above the key number of 3.5.
Pick: Browns +3 (-102 at DraftKings)
Bearman: One of these teams is leaving 0-2, and if you watched Week 1, you want no business being on the Browns side. Week 2 is all about not overreacting to what you saw the first week of the season, but it is hard to ignore just how bad the Browns and Deshaun Watson looked. And the vaunted Browns defense didn’t do much to stop the Cowboys either.
As for the Jags, they are 0-1, but not all 0-1s are created equal. Jacksonville had every chance to beat Miami in Miami and probably shoot have, if not for Trevor Etienne fumbling into the end zone en route to a 24-7 lead. I usually say lines move too much after Week 1. The lookahead line, posted in April at Westgate Super Book, was Jags -2.
It’s only moved one point. Based on what I saw with the naked eye, this one didn’t move enough.
Pick: Jaguars -3
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
- Moneyline: Rams -110, Cardinals -110
- Total: 48
With Puka Nacua sidelined for at least four weeks, I’m expecting Cooper Kupp to dominate the target share again like it’s 2021.
We got a glimpse of that on Sunday Night Football when Kupp was targeted 21 times — nearly twice as many as the next-most targeted player in Week 1. In the second half without Nacua, more than half of Matthew Stafford’s throws went Kupp’s way.
Even with a depleted offensive line, I’m expecting Stafford to have his way against the Arizona Cardinals’ 32-ranked defense, meaning Kupp should be the biggest beneficiary.
In Week 1, more than 78% of Kupp’s snaps came in the slot, and that percentage slightly jumped up to 82% without Nacua. This week, he’ll go against a Cardinals defense that has allowed the second-highest completion percentage on targets in the slot since Week 1 of last year.
It might be too obvious, but I’m riding with Kupp props in this one.
Pick: Kupp over 7.5 receptions (-140 at DraftKings), Kupp 10+ receptions (+172 at FanDuel)
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)
- Moneyline: Bengals +220, Chiefs -270
- Total: 48
Considering the Kansas City Chiefs were 3.5-point favorites before last week and both starting quarterbacks will be active, this line is the biggest overreaction to Week 1.
It’s scary to back Joe Burrow and the Bengals after they laid an egg last week against the woeful Patriots and now have to face the defending Super Bowl champions.
However, this is a Chiefs team that the Bengals have played very well against in recent years, and perhaps last week they were looking ahead to this matchup.
Other factors, like Tee Higgins’ absence and the Chiefs’ extended rest, could scare you away from taking the Bengals.
But if your Week 2 process is to fade the overreactions, you have to take Cincinnati here.
Pick: Bengals +6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos
- Moneyline: Steelers -155, Broncos +130
- Total: 36.5
Let me get this straight. We’re getting +195 odds on the clear lead and goal-line back for one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league to score a touchdown…against a defense that just allowed Kenneth Walker III to run for 103 yards on 20 carries…and score a touchdown. Yeah, sign me up.
Najee Harris handled 20 carries for 70 yards last week, and with Jaylen Warren not fully healthy, the Steelers are leaning on him even more.
Last week, Pittsburgh had 40 rushes against just 23 Justin Fields pass attempts. To be fair, 14 of those rush attempts were Fields himself. But the fact remains, this team wants to run.
I suspect they won’t be shut out of the end zone for a second consecutive week.
Pick: Najee Harris anytime touchdown (+195 at DraftKings, 0.5u)
Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Bears +220, Texans -270
- Total: 45.5
Williams can’t be any worse than he was last week, right? After finishing his NFL debut as PFN’s worst-ranked quarterback of the week, it can only go up from here for the No. 1 overall pick.
Instead, I’m going to sell high on the Chicago Bears’ defense. This is obviously a very talented group, but you can’t expect C.J. Stroud at home to make the same mistakes that Levis made last week.
Last season, while Stroud was very impressive regardless of where the game was being played, he was exceptional at home — 17 passing touchdowns, four interceptions, 310.8 passing yards per game, 8.94 yards per attempt, and a 108.3 QB rating. He also had the second-highest EPA per dropback in Houston compared to the 14th-best on the road.
Instead of putting myself at risk for a potential backdoor cover on the spread, I’m going to stick with taking the Texans’ team total over.
Pick: Texans over 26.5 (-112 at DraftKings)