The New England Patriots entered Week 18 at 13-3, already AFC East champions and sitting as the conference’s No. 2 seed behind the in-form Denver Broncos. The path to the top spot was straightforward but required help: the Patriots must beat the Miami Dolphins while the Broncos falter against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The core incentives are substantial; only the No. 1 seed receives a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, so New England’s finale remains high leverage despite having clinched the division. The projections still favor Denver, but viable paths exist for the Patriots to climb.
What Are Patriots’ Playoff Seeding Scenarios for Week 18
The Patriots would have been the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win over the Dolphins and a Broncos loss or tie against the Chargers. New England could have also secured the No. 1 with a tie against the Dolphins if the Broncos lose to the Chargers.
However, since the Broncos won against the Chargers, the Patriots will be the second seed in the playoffs. They will now host the Los Angeles in the Wild Card round as Drake Maye’s postseason debut will be against Justin Herbert’s team.
According to PFSN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, before Week 18, the Broncos had a 63.3% chance of securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed, while the Patriots had a 25.8% chance. PFSN Analytics also projects an 81.5% win probability for Denver over the Chargers and a 66.9% win probability for New England over Miami, reflecting market expectations and roster context.
These probabilities took into account Los Angeles’ plan to rest key starters, which significantly impacts the Chargers’ outlook and strengthens Denver’s position.
The Broncos needed only a win to lock the top seed, and they were able to get the job done against Trey Lance.
MORE: Important NFL Games Today: What’s Left to Be Decided in the Last Sunday of the Regular Season?
For New England, the directive was simple: beat Miami and then watch the scoreboard. Had Denver stumbled at all, either by losing or tying, the door would have opened for the Patriots to claim the bye and home-field advantage.
The most common outcome has come to fruition, and now the AFC playoff bracket is all but set, as the AFC North division will be decided on Sunday Night Football.
The Patriots will face a well-coached team under Jim Harbaugh in the playoffs, and it will be intriguing to see how they perform.
