Seattle already clinched the NFC’s No. 1 seed Saturday night, throttling San Francisco 13-3 in a defensive masterpiece that knocked the 49ers down to Wild Card status. But Sunday’s slate carries even higher stakes: a three-team race for the AFC’s bye, a division title that hinges on a game between two eliminated teams, and a winner-take-all showdown in Pittsburgh that will end one storied coach’s season before January even begins.
Ravens-Steelers Winner Takes AFC North, Loser Goes Home
The final game of the 2025 regular season is a play-in game disguised as a rivalry matchup. Baltimore wins, and they’re AFC North champions for the third straight year. Pittsburgh wins–or ties–and the Steelers host a playoff game next weekend. The loser’s season ends.
This is the 40th meeting between John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, the second-most between head coaches in NFL history behind George Halas and Curly Lambeau. Both Super Bowl-winning coaches have faced unusual scrutiny this season, and ESPN analysts suggested this week that the losing coach could potentially walk away from their post.
When asked if Sunday’s result would serve as a “referendum” on his job, Harbaugh deflected. “I really just don’t have the space for that,” he said. “There’s always pressure, but I think it was Billie Jean King who said that pressure is a privilege.”
Lamar Jackson practiced fully this week and is expected to play after missing last Saturday’s win over Green Bay. Without him, Derrick Henry put up 216 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers–a performance that should terrify a Steelers defense still searching for answers in the run game. Henry has averaged 147.3 rushing yards in his last three games against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers counter with their own desperation. Aaron Rodgers and the offense mustered just six points in last week’s loss to Cleveland, a defeat that cost them the chance to clinch the division outright.
DK Metcalf serves the second game of his suspension, robbing Rodgers of his most dangerous vertical threat. T.J. Watt could return after sitting out three games following lung surgery, but Pittsburgh’s defensive line will need to slow Henry without margin for error.
Forty of the 64 all-time games between these franchises have been decided by one score. Expect nothing different.
Broncos Control AFC’s No. 1 Seed; Three-Team Race Remains Alive
Denver needs only to beat a Chargers team resting its starters to lock up home-field advantage and the AFC’s lone bye. Head coach Jim Harbaugh announced earlier this week that Justin Herbert won’t play, and Los Angeles’ offensive line–ranked 30th in the NFL according to PFSN’s Offensive Line Impact Metric–will now face Bo Nix and a Broncos defense that’s been stingy all season.
If Denver somehow loses, New England claims the top seed with a win over Miami. The longest shot belongs to Jacksonville: the Jaguars need to beat Tennessee while both the Broncos and Patriots lose. The Jags would also clinch the AFC South with a win, a division the Texans can steal only if Jacksonville loses and Houston beats Indianapolis.
The Patriots, already AFC East champions at 13-3, present an interesting wrinkle. They’ve been the conference’s most consistent team down the stretch, but they’re playing for a bye, not survival. Drake Maye has played well enough to generate confidence, and New England could use the rest before the postseason begins.
NFC South Champion Will Be Decided by Two Eliminated Teams
Update: The Falcons defeated the Saints which caused a three-way 8-9 tie in the NFC South. Due to the divisional tiebreakers, the Carolina Panthers have won the division.
Here’s a scenario the NFL couldn’t have scripted: the NFC South title will be determined by the Saints-Falcons game, even though neither team can make the playoffs.
Tampa Bay did its part Saturday, surviving Carolina 16-14 on a rain-soaked field. The Bucs improved to 8-9, tied with the Panthers atop the division. Now they wait. If Atlanta beats New Orleans, a three-way tie at 8-9 would give the Panthers the division on a head-to-head tiebreaker (Carolina went 3-1 against Tampa and Atlanta). If the Saints win or tie, Tampa Bay takes the NFC South.
“I never thought I’d see a day where I’m rooting for the Saints,” longtime Bucs linebacker Lavonte David said after the game.
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Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, whose team now controls nothing, was candid about the strange position. “It’s on us for that being our reality,” he said. “We had an opportunity to take it. Now we have to leave it in someone else’s hands.”
The Falcons are slight home favorites against a Saints team missing receiver Chris Olave, who was ruled out with a blood clot in his lung. Raheem Morris is coaching for his job in Atlanta; motivation won’t be an issue. But neither will irony if New Orleans, the team Baker Mayfield famously said he “doesn’t like,” delivers Tampa Bay a division title.
What Else Matters Sunday?
The Bears and Eagles are jockeying for the NFC’s No. 2 seed. Chicago clinches it with a win over Detroit; Philadelphia needs to beat Washington and have the Bears lose.
Green Bay has locked into the seventh seed and will rest starters against Minnesota. The Packers will travel to face either Chicago or Philadelphia in the opening round–their third consecutive trip to the Wild Card round as the NFC’s No. 7.
The Wild Card seeding in the AFC also remains fluid. Buffalo and the Chargers are both locked into playoff spots, but seeding between seeds five through seven depends on how Sunday’s games fall. Houston holds the tiebreaker over both thanks to head-to-head victories. Josh Allen is expected to start despite missing practice time this week; Herbert won’t suit up.
By Sunday night, every playoff seed will be set. Every eliminated team will begin its offseason. And one of the NFL’s most decorated coaching rivalries will have a definitive winner–at least for 2025.
