The New England Patriots are coming off their best offensive effort of the season, while the Miami Dolphins are coming off one of their worst offensive performance. So, were both just an aberration, or is a trend developing before our eyes? We’ll break down this matchup for you.
Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Lines, Start Time, and More
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Spread: Dolphins -9.5
- Moneyline: Patriots (+360), Dolphins (-470)
- Over/Under: 47
- Game time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- Channel: CBS
Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction
Prior to last week’s games, the idea that New England could go down to Miami and come away with a victory was about as likely as catching a train to the planet Neptune.
But a win over the Bills by the Patriots, coupled with a loss by the Dolphins to the Eagles, and suddenly, this matchup is probably getting a little more attention.
However, in the end, it is still all about the Dolphins. The Patriots’ win over the Bills was a surprise, sure, but given Buffalo’s “ability” to continually play down to its opponent this season, New England’s victory has to be viewed in a different light.
There is also the fact that Miami has feasted on the poor teams in the league this season while struggling with quality opponents. The Dolphins are 0-2 against teams with a winning record — losses to the Bills and Eagles — but are 4-0 against teams that have losing records — Chargers (2-4), Patriots (2-5), Broncos (2-5), Giants (2-5) and Panthers (0-6).
And in those wins over sub-.500 teams, the Dolphins offense is averaging 40.6 PPG and 519.8 YPG.
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Yes, there are health concerns for the Dolphins at the skill positions. Wide receivers Tyreek Hill (hip) and Jaylen Waddle (back) were both limited in practice this week, as was running back Raheem Mostert (ankle).
However, Miami still has Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, and he is a perfect 5-0 vs. the Patriots. The only other quarterback who has a career record of 4-0 or better vs. Bill Belichick is Hall of Famer John Elway (4-0).
As for the Patriots, they didn’t just come up with a season-high in points in last week’s win over the Bills, but their 29 points was their most in a game in over a year — 38 points vs. the Browns in Week 6 in the 2022 season. Mac Jones was sharp last week, going 25 for 30 passing (83%) with 272 passing yards, two touchdown passes, and zero interceptions.
Over his last two games, the much-maligned Jones has completed 78% of his pass attempts (49 for 63). And his 126.7 passer rating in Week 7 was the third-highest of his career.
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Jones’ numbers in his career vs. the Dolphins, while not Hall of Fame-worthy, are respectable. In all five career games vs. Miami, Jones has at least 200 passing yards, one or more passing touchdowns, and a passer rating of at least 80.
As for how to play this matchup, if you believe in the Dolphins this season, then you also have to believe the theory that great teams usually respond to poor efforts the previous week to big-time rebound games the next week.
That is what I’m expecting Sunday, with Belichick and the Patriots being the victims, in this case.
A near-double-digit spread is a big number in the NFL; I get it. And the Patriots are playing a little better and gave Miami a decent effort in their first meeting back in Week 2.
But if a team like the Dolphins, if properly motivated from last week’s offensive effort, doesn’t put up at least 30 points in this game, I’ll be surprised and forced to re-evaluate my thoughts on this team.
Best Bet: Dolphins -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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