Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth looks to solidify himself as an every-season TE1 in fantasy. He saw increases in volume and usage from his rookie to sophomore seasons. Entering his third year, this could be the true breakout we’ve been waiting for. Should fantasy football managers draft Freiermuth at his ADP this season?
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Pat Freiermuth’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
Freiermuth was one of the rare rookie tight ends that had actually fantasy value back in 2021. Although he only averaged 9.5 PPR fantasy points per game, Freiermuth was averaging a sub-50% snap share over the first five weeks of the season.
Once Freiermuth started to take over as the Steelers’ primary TE, his production improved. From Week 6 through the end of the season, Freiermuth averaged 11.3 ppg. Those numbers don’t necessarily move the needle, but they’re better than streaming, and Freiermuth was a waiver pickup anyway.
Last season, Freiermuth was a popular candidate to take a sophomore-year leap. At first glance, fantasy managers may think that didn’t happen. After all, his ppg actually dropped from 9.5 to 9.3. However, a deeper dive reveals he was, in fact, much better. So, what happened?
Kenny Pickett was very bad last season. As a result, the Steelers, particularly their pass catchers, struggled to score touchdowns. We know Diontae Johnson didn’t score at all.
Freiermuth, who scored seven times as a rookie, only scored twice in 2022. That fact actually makes his performance seem that much better. He lost five touchdowns but only 0.2 in ppg. That’s because Freiermuth’s volume and efficiency increased.
Freiermuth saw his yards per reception increase from 8.3 to 11.4. His target share went from 13% to 19%. He ran a route on 25% of Steelers’ pass plays, an increase of 10% from the year prior. I could go on about other improvements, but you get the point.
Heading into the 2023 season, Freiermuth should benefit from an improved Pickett. Quarterbacks often progress considerably from their rookie to sophomore seasons. While I am not a believer in Pickett as a franchise quarterback, I do expect him to be significantly improved. As a result, he should be able to support two WRs and a TE.
Is Freiermuth a Good Fantasy Pick?
Freiermuth’s ADP sits at TE9, No. 82 overall. That is exactly where I have him ranked at the position and exactly where he lands in our PFN consensus rankings. There’s nothing wrong with taking Freiermuth at his ADP.
With that said, I have a pretty specific strategy at tight end and have yet to see a compelling need to deviate from it. I don’t really like taking Travis Kelce in the first round. So, it’s either Darren Waller in the sixth or punt.
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If I’m punting the position, I am going to be the last person to take a tight end. Freiermuth isn’t a bad pick in the seventh round, but I’m certainly not doing it. There are still too many quality running backs and wide receivers to pass on.
As much as I like Freiermuth as a player, it’s difficult to envision him doing better than around 11 ppg. I believe I can get 9-10 ppg from guys that go in the double-digit rounds or by streaming in shallower leagues. The opportunity cost is just too great. I am not paying a 6-7 round premium for 1-2 ppg.
So, while I do love exclaiming, “The Muth is Luth” on Sundays, it is unlikely when doing so that it will benefit my fantasy teams in 2023.
