The PFN betting team is back with their top over/under plays for Week 4 of the NFL season. I had an unfortunate loss in Week 3 with the Cleveland Browns vs. The Washington Football Team under 45.5. That game saw the Browns score early and often, thanks in large part to three Dwayne Haskins interceptions that left the Washington defense with short fields to defend. However, I come back employing the same analytical model techniques to find us a winner for Week 4. Bookmark the PFN betting team for all of our 100%, completely free content to help you cash during the 2020 NFL season.
Top Week 4 Over/Under NFL Bets: Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins over 54 (-110) 2.5 units
These teams have flashed highly efficient offenses and porous defenses thus far in 2020, and I see no reason why this should not continue in their Week 4 matchup. The Seahawks, in particular, have seen their total go over in every game this year, and they look entirely different than the Seahawks teams that featured the ‘Legion of Boom’ just a few years ago.
The model puts this total closer to 60, highlighting that bookmakers simply have not caught up to this new look Seattle team and where to set their totals. Let’s dive into why this is the best over/under bet for Week 4.
Russell Wilson for MVP?
There has not been a more impressive player in the 2020 NFL season than Russell Wilson. He has an astronomical 14 passing touchdowns thus far, and his combination of elusiveness and arm talent has made him practically unstoppable. Wilson has always been a star, but he appears to have a renewed focus that has seen him elevate his game to an entirely new level in 2020. Maybe it’s all the attention being paid to the young star quarterbacks in the AFC, perhaps it was the birth of his son in early September, but something has clicked for Wilson this year.
I personally believe the most critical factor to Wilson’s success is having another year building rapport with the players around him, particularly the dynamic duo at receiver in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Both players have looked phenomenal this year and should continue to dominate this Sunday against a Dolphins secondary that is without their top corner in Byron Jones, and have struggled to contain most offenses this year.
The Seahawks may be without top running back Chris Carson on Sunday. Most games, they would miss the balance he provides, but I expect the Seahawks to lean a little heavier on the passing game and move the ball through the air with ease, which I love for the sake of this over.
The Legion of Gloom
As I mentioned earlier, this Seahawks secondary has been abysmal to start 2020 and look nothing like the “Legion of Boom” that once patrolled the Seattle skies. They have allowed a league-worst 430 yards per game through the air, 80 yards more per game than the second-worst passing defense in the Falcons. They are the only team in NFL history to allow 1,200 yards passing through three weeks.
This secondary has been historically bad, and that is with star playmaking safety Jamal Adams playing, who they will likely be without Sunday due to a groin injury. With him, I expect Fitzpatrick and his own dynamic duo of receivers in DeVante Parker and Preston Williams to move the ball with ease. Without Adams patrolling the middle of the field and disrupting wherever he can, even a below-average NFL offense should move the ball on this team easily.
Is Ryan Fitzpatrick Good?
Following a dominant performance against Jacksonville and a very solid performance against Buffalo, the Miami Dolphins are left asking themselves the same question at least seven teams before them have asked themselves: “Is Ryan Fitzpatrick good?”
Ultimately these teams have settled on the answer of no, or at least, he is not their quarterback of the future, hence why they let him walk. But not before Fitzpatrick has flashed enough brilliance for another team to give him a shot at QB.
Fitzpatrick is going according to script thus far in the 2020 season, displaying his high upside and ability in Week 3 against Jacksonville. He did not miss his targets and made the right decision nearly every throw, and I see no reason why he shouldn’t continue to dominate with his main weapons healthy against the leagues worst secondary. I’d be lying if I said I was not slightly worried by Fitzpatrick’s history of erratic play, but I feel pretty confident that this is not his week to fall apart entirely.
The Dolphins defense needs more time
This Dolphins defense is talented physically, but they need more time before they will be able to stop or even slow down the kind of prolific offense that the Seahawks will bring to Miami. This defense is tied for 30th in yards per play allowed at 6.5 yards, and they will likely be without their top corner in Jones.
They also cannot stop the run, allowing 133.7 yards per game, 25th in the league. Since they have trouble stopping the run, are likely missing their top corner, and are going against the top passing offense in the NFL through three weeks, I simply do not see how they get more than a couple stops in this game. Fitzpatrick and co. will have to score a lot to keep up, and I believe they will be able to. This game has all the makings of a shootout. Don’t overthink it; bet the over on the NFL Week 4 Over/Under play of the week:
Seahawks vs. Dolphins over 54.
Other over/under bets from Drew for Week 4:
Rams vs. Giants under 48.5 | -110 for 1.5 units
Bears vs. Colts under 45 | -110 for 1 unit
George Templeton’s NFL Week 4 over/under best bet: Broncos-Jets U 40 | -110 for 1U
Denver will give Brett Rypien his first NFL start, and the Jets are in the bottom two in every significant offensive category except rushing (28th) and yards per carry (30th). Unless one of these defenses gives their offense a lot of short fields, I expect a very low-scoring game.
Saints-Lions U54 | -110 for 1U
Think the Saints offense will struggle as long as Drew Brees is the quarterback and Michael Thomas is not playing either. The Lions’ offense benefited from a bunch of Kyler Murray turnovers last week and won’t get that this week.
Cardinals-Panthers U51.5 | -105 for 1U
Carolina’s red-zone offense is one of the worst in the NFL and will try to rely on the running game to keep Kyler Murray off the field. DeAndre Hopkins’ possible absence could also lead the Cardinals to lean heavily on the running game also.
Cowboys-Browns O56 | -110 for 1U
Dallas split its last two shootouts and faces a Browns defense that allowed Washington to rally to take the lead in the third quarter last week. Both teams have too many weapons for their opposing defenses.
Vikings-Texans, U53.5 | -110 for 1U
The Texans were shutout in the second half of a loss to Pittsburgh last week Minnesota’s offense is wildly inconsistent. Both teams are 0-3 and deservedly so.
Chargers-Bucs, U42.5 | -110 for 1U
No Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin are major misses for Tampa Bay. The Chargers couldn’t move the ball for 3 quarters last week and face a much better defense this week.
Bills-Raiders, U53 | -110 for 1U
Las Vegas needs to avoid the turnovers so they can ride Josh Jacobs and an opportunistic passing game. Which Bills offense will show up? The one that got up 28-3 or the one that couldn’t move the ball for the next 2 quarters until its final possession of the game?