Nyheim Hines had a career year in Indianapolis last season. However, what is Hines’ fantasy football outlook and ADP in 2021 with Jonathan Taylor’s late-season emergence? Hines only had 380 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns but caught an inconceivable 63 of 76 targets for 482 receiving yards and 4 more scores. After finishing as the RB15, can Hines repeat his performance for fantasy managers in 2021?
Nyheim Hines’ fantasy outlook for 2021
The only other running backs who finished 2020 with more receptions than Hines were Alvin Kamara (83) and J.D. McKissic (80). Hines has accumulated a ton of receptions since his rookie season. He finished the 2018 season with the eighth-most receptions (63) among running backs. Then, he ranked 16th in receptions (44) in 2019. Hines is versatile enough to thrive as a receiver out of the backfield or out wide.
This statistical production was impressive considering Hines only played 36% of the Colts’ offensive snaps during his career. He averaged 4.7 rushing attempts and 18.6 rushing yards per game. It will be challenging for Hines to replicate last season’s performance in 2021.
Running back targets
Last season, Philip Rivers targeted his running backs 8.6 times per game. Over the last three seasons, he ranked in the top five in checkdowns to running backs. However, new Colts quarterback Carson Wentz has not heavily used his RBs as receivers during that same span.
Wentz has worked with Colts head coach Frank Reich, wide receivers coach Mike Groh, and senior offensive assistant Press Taylor. Reich was Eagles offensive coordinator from 2016 to 2017 with Wentz under center. Wentz enjoyed an MVP-caliber campaign in 2017 before a season-ending knee injury. Groh replaced Reich as Eagles offensive coordinator in 2018 and 2019.
It’s important to remember the success Wentz had from 2016 to 2019. He finished as a QB1 in 59% of his 56 active games. Furthermore, he averaged 253 passing yards and 20.5 fantasy points per game. With the recent injury news for Wentz, there is uncertainty over who will be under center to start the season for Indianapolis. If Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger is under center, that is a huge unknown for projecting this offense.
Jonathan Taylor’s ascension
The emergence of Taylor late last season is also another hurdle for Hines. Taylor went nuclear in Weeks 11-17 as the Colts unleashed him. He played 61% of the team’s offensive snaps during that time frame, averaging 22.7 opportunities, 139.5 total yards, and an impressive 24.3 PPR fantasy ppg. Taylor finished as an RB1 in five out of six contests.
Taylor ended the year with four games of 4+ targets and proved to be a capable receiver out of the backfield. Moreover, he averaged the ninth-most fantasy points per target (6.17) among running backs, just ahead of Dalvin Cook (6.14). Many draft analysts were concerned about his limited reception total and the number of drops he recorded at Wisconsin.
The perception among fantasy managers is that Hines will siphon all the targets away from Taylor. However, we project that they will receive a similar target share and finish with similar receiving yard totals.
Reich acknowledged this summer that Taylor has “earned the right to be the main guy” in 2021. Taylor’s opportunity share (37%) and snap share (62%) over the last five weeks of 2020 provide us a glimpse of what to expect.
Reich and the Colts coaching staff need to position Wentz for success. The best way to do that is with the team’s offensive line and its robust running game. Hines is entering the final year of his rookie contract.
Injuries could hurt the Colts running game
The Colts have been one of the unluckiest with the injury bug in camp. Carson Wentz underwent surgery that has a timeframe that could see him out through the first month or two of the season. On top of that, the Colts may be starting the season without guard Quenton Nelson, who, like Wentz, underwent foot surgery. There is also a concern over the health of center Ben Kelly.
All of these injuries could have an impact on the running game for the Colts. Equally, with uncertainty under center, there could be an impact on the passing game to the backs.
How many opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) will he be provided in the Colts’ backfield that also includes Marlon Mack?
Fantasy projection
Hines projects for around 50 rushing attempts, 220 rushing yards, and 2 touchdowns in 2021. Additionally, he could see 60 targets, 44 receptions, 300 receiving yards, and another score.
Nyheim Hines’ ADP
Hines is readily available in the 10th or 11th round of 12-team leagues when you review redraft ADP data (132.5) from Fleaflicker. However, in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, Hines has an ADP of 129.31. Meanwhile, his ADP in half PPR formats on Sleeper is 124.1.
Should you draft Hines in 2021?
Yes, as long as you have the proper expectations. It will be difficult for Hines to replicate his 2020 campaign. He is best viewed as a high-end RB4.
