Houston Texans WR Nico Collins emerged as one of the biggest fantasy football surprises of the 2023 NFL season, his instant chemistry with rookie QB C.J. Stroud generating an exceptional amount of production last year.
After the addition of target hog Stefon Diggs to this receiver core this offseason, can fantasy managers expect an encore performance from Collins in 2024?
Nico Collins’ 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 261.2
- Receptions: 90.2
- Receiving Yards: 1317.2
- Receiving TDs: 6.4
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Collins This Year?
After failing to register a top 70 fantasy season through his first two years in the NFL, Collins exploded in 2023 with 80 receptions for 1,297 yards and eight TDs. These numbers helped the former Michigan Wolverine finish as the WR12 in full-PPR formats.
Collins had more receptions, yards, and TDs last year than the previous two seasons combined.
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When you consider Collins accomplished this while ranking 24th in targets (109), 29th in target share (22.7%), and 29th in air yards (1,186), you quickly realize how efficient of a player he was in 2023.
Here lies the problem with projecting an encore performance in 2024. Collins’ target competition just added a real threat to the receiver room with the addition of Diggs this offseason.
When you look at Diggs’ production during his four years with the Buffalo Bills, it is hard to imagine him not having some sort of significant impact on the target distribution in Houston this upcoming year.
Diggs registered 445 receptions for 5,372 yards and 37 touchdowns over his time in Buffalo. That means he averaged 111 receptions, 1,343 yards, and nine scores for four straight years. It gets even more concerning when you look at Diggs’ target share in Buffalo.
Diggs’ Target Share Since 2020:
- 2023: 29.5% (ninth among WRs)
- 2022: 28.4% (10th)
- 2021: 26.4% (13th)
- 2020: 29.1% (third)
Sure, the situations aren’t apples to apples by any means. Yet, Diggs’ struggles over the back half of the year may be fooling fantasy managers into thinking he isn’t a big threat to Collins in 2024.
Additionally, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz aren’t scrubs either. Dell was almost as productive as Collins on a per-game basis last year, and Schultz has seen 88+ targets in four straight seasons.
Look, I’m a big believer in Stroud too, but I do have my doubts whether or not he will be able to make four pass-catching options fantasy relevant this season.
Collins is still a nice bet to compete for the team lead in targets when it is all said and done, but the impact of Diggs and Dell could lead to some very volatile weeks for the fourth-year receiver in 2024.
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Collins’ average draft position (ADP) at No. 23 overall, going off the board in the second round as the WR13, feels like a very aggressive ranking entering the 2024 NFL season. Collins is currently being drafted ahead of Chris Olave, Mike Evans, and Michael Pittman Jr. To me, all of those other options have far less competition for targets and represent a similar — if not higher — upside to Collins in 2024.
Collins is an ascending player paired with an ascending quarterback, which rightfully has fantasy managers excited. Unfortunately, I think banking on him as your fantasy WR1 in 2024 could be a bit premature.
