Nico Collins Fantasy Outlook: Will the Texans’ Offense Produce a Top-30 WR?

    The Houston Texans have a WR1 role up for grabs in 2023. Is Nico Collins the favorite to supplant Brandin Cooks as the next fantasy-relevant WR in Houston?

    The Houston Texans are one of the teams with a WR1 role completely up for grabs heading into the 2023 NFL season. Is Nico Collins the best bet to emerge as a fantasy football option at wide receiver this season in Houston’s offense?

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    Nico Collin’s Fantasy Outlook

    Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, Jeff Driskel, and Tyrod Taylor… That is the collection of quarterbacks Nico Collins has been catching passes from during his first two years in the NFL.

    The fantasy results have been about what you would’ve expected from that collection of signal-callers — below average. The Texans have finished in the bottom half of the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns over the past two seasons.

    The best two cases that can be made for Collins being fantasy relevant heading into 2023 revolve around the departure of Brandin Cooks and the potential for stability and improved play from the QB position with the arrival of rookie C.J. Stroud.

    Cooks saw a dominating target share over his two-year stint as a member of the Texans, which was 23.5% in 2022 and 27.5% in 2021. He’s now no longer with the team, leaving a massive role completely vacant heading into the 2023 season.

    Despite below-average fantasy results in his first two years, Collins has shown brief flashes of being a capable wide receiver. Over his nine healthy games last season, he averaged seven targets per game. From Weeks 10-13, he averaged nine targets per game and produced 19 receptions and two touchdowns.

    MORE: 2023 Fantasy Player Projections

    The other receivers on the roster consist of either unproven younger players (John Metchie III, Tank Dell, and Xavier Hutchinson) or veterans coming off of mediocre seasons (Robert Woods and Noah Brown).

    Of the players on the roster, Collins is easily the best red-zone option, which could be enough to help make the decision of who to invest in on draft day out of this WR group.

    Should You Draft Nico Collins at His Current Draft Day Price?

    Investing in the Texans’ offense on draft day is unlikely to generate a big reaction from your league-mates, but there has to be someone who will generate some production from this WR group.

    No one is predicting a top-10 finish for any Houston wide receiver. But with Collins’ profile as the best red-zone threat on the roster and the best option to see 100+ targets in this offense, the path to him posting a top-30 WR season is far more plausible than you would think, given his current ADP of WR59.

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