Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb has been considered atop lists for the best pure running back in the sport, but all of that momentum was slowed with a gruesome Week 2 knee injury that initially worried us that he’d never return to the field.
Less than a year after damaging most major ligaments, we are getting videos of Chubb squatting enough weight to make us consider whether he is part superhero. Of course, lateral movement is the major concern when it comes to a knee injury, and we’ve yet to see that.
With a wide range of outcomes, should fantasy football managers be rolling the dice on this 28-year-old?
Nick Chubb’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 177.4 (157.0 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 1,076.0
- Rushing TDs: 5.2
- Receptions: 20.4
- Receiving Yards: 150.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.5
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 15. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Chubb This Year?
I’m not a doctor, nor do I pretend to be one, but the outlook from a health perspective seems to be pretty straightforward.
Chubb will be eased into action at some point early in the season and he will ramp up as the weeks melt away. The Browns have a perfectly placed bye week (Week 10), thus allowing them to potentially unleash their All-Pro in the late stages of the first half of the season and give him an extra week to make sure that all boxes are checked.
.@NickChubb looks ready to get back out there. 😤👏
(via joc.films/IG) pic.twitter.com/RiNqK9oVIH
— NFL (@NFL)
That would obviously be a problem if you were being asked to spend first-round draft capital on him like you were 12 months ago, but that’s not the case. In early drafts, he is being drafted right around RB30 with an ADP outside of the first seven rounds.
What do you have to lose?
I’m in love with how the schedule plays out from a game theory standpoint. Sure, you might not get much in the way of usable weeks before Halloween, but coming out of that bye, it could be wheels up in a major way.
In Weeks 11-14, Cleveland plays nothing but run defenses that ranked 18th or lower in preventing running back yards after contact. I’ll give you one guess as to who leads the NFL in yards gained after contact since Chubb entered the league:
- Chubb: 3.94
- Derrick Henry: 3.92
- Tony Pollard: 3.53
After that stretch, the Browns finish with games against elite offenses (Kansas City, Cincinnati, Miami, and Baltimore) that even their elite defense can’t completely slow down, meaning a run-heavy script as the weather worsens. The only thing less fun than trying to tackle Chubb is trying to tackle Chubb in frigid conditions where Cleveland is motivated to continue to pound the rock.
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From a role standpoint, there should be zero concerns. I know that Jerome Ford had his moments last season, but they were just that – moments.
Over the past two seasons, 49 running backs have at least 200 carries. Ford ranks 49th in the percentage of carries that have gained yardage (71.7%) — dead last and it’s not even close (next worst: 76.2%).
Juxtapose that to the leaderboard of running backs, since 2020, who have produced above fantasy expectations given where their carries come on the field, and you’ll understand my point:
- Chubb: +24.9%
- Christian McCaffrey: +18.3%
Let me be clear – drafting Chubb doesn’t come without downside. An injured player who takes part in violent collisions regularly isn’t exactly the profile I make a habit of targeting, but at cost, the price is right. Blindly passing on Cleveland’s All-World running back is playing not to lose. I don’t know about you, but the leagues I play in reward those who play to win.
