The Toronto Maple Leafs are enduring a difficult season. Their recent struggles have pushed their playoff hopes to the brink. They currently sit seventh in the Atlantic Division with a 27–26–11 record and have dropped seven straight games, leaving their playoff hopes hanging by a thread.
Now, with the NHL trade deadline behind them, the focus has shifted to one big question: What are the Maple Leafs’ chances of making the playoffs?
Toronto Maple Leafs’ Odds of Reaching the NHL Playoffs
The Maple Leafs currently sit 11 points back of the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, making a playoff push very difficult.
According to post-trade-deadline projections from The Athletic, Toronto’s outlook isn’t very encouraging. The team has a -15.9 rating and a -24 projected goal differential, giving them only about a 1% chance of reaching the playoffs, with their chances of making the Stanley Cup Final or winning the Cup both sitting below 1%.
NHL writer Dom Luszczyszyn wrote that the projections are “based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, which factors in each team’s projected strength, current health, and strength of schedule.”
If the Leafs ultimately miss the playoffs, it would mark the first time they have failed to qualify for the postseason since the 2015–16 season.
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Toronto Maple Leafs’ Trade Deadline Moves
Toronto’s actions at the trade deadline made it clear the organization had shifted its focus toward the future.
The Maple Leafs completed three notable deals in the days leading up to the deadline:
- The Colorado Avalanche acquired Nicolas Roy from Toronto in exchange for a conditional 2027 first-round pick and a conditional 2026 fifth-round pick.
- The Los Angeles Kings acquired Scott Laughton for a conditional 2026 third-round pick.
- The Seattle Kraken acquired Bobby McMann for a 2027 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick.
By moving several players for draft picks, Toronto effectively became sellers at the trade deadline for the first time in a decade.
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Instead of launching a full rebuild or aggressively trying to stay competitive, the organization chose to recoup assets by moving pending unrestricted free agents for draft picks. The approach signals that the team recognizes this season may be out of reach but is focusing on strengthening its future draft capital.
With playoff hopes fading, the Maple Leafs will likely look toward the offseason for potential changes as they try to regroup and return stronger next year.
For now, Toronto will look to stop the slide when it faces the Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday.
