Stakes Raised for Connor McDavid’s Canada, Auston Matthews’ USA in Final Slate of Winter Olympics’ Preliminary Round

The 2026 Winter Olympics hockey tournament is nearing the end of its preliminary round. But there’s still plenty on the line.

Both Team Canada and Team USA have already secured their spots in the quarterfinals. On the surface, Sunday’s final group-stage games might not seem urgent. But in reality, these matchups could shape the entire path to a potential gold medal.

High Stakes Await Canada and USA in Group-Stage Finale

Canada will finish Group A play against France on Sunday at 10:40 a.m. ET. They’ve been impressive so far, beating Czechia 5-0 and Switzerland 5-1. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, powered by Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Macklin Celebrini, as they’ve controlled play through two games.

The United States will close out Group C later that day against Germany. They opened the tournament with a strong 5–1 win over Latvia and followed it up with a 6–3 victory against Denmark. Jack Eichel and captain Auston Matthews have played a big part in leading the attack.

So, what’s the big deal if both teams are already through? It comes down to positioning.

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If Canada and the United States both win in regulation, the standings might be decided by goal difference, which is goals scored minus goals allowed. Canada is currently at +9, while the U.S. is at +7. It may seem like a small difference. But it could be enough to decide who finishes first.

And that matters.

The higher seed would likely avoid a tougher quarterfinal matchup. Sweden, for example, is projected to land around the seventh seed, which means the second overall seed could potentially face them in the next round. That’s not an opponent either powerhouse would prefer to see early.

Because Canada faces France and the U.S. takes on Germany, two underdogs in the tournament, there’s a real possibility for lopsided scores. That makes every single goal important. We’ve already seen how goal margins can shift the bracket, as Finland’s recent 11-0 blowout did, turning heads across the hockey world.

Analyst Patrick Bacon summed it up perfectly: “This is a once-in-a-lifetime chance to watch McDavid, Matthews, etc. face non-NHLers with Olympic gold medal stakes in how hard they beat them up.”

According to Bacon’s projections, a USA–Sweden quarterfinal matchup currently has a 64% chance of happening. There are other possibilities too. Depending on how the final group games unfold, including matchups against Denmark, Latvia, Switzerland, Czechia, or even Finland, if results swing dramatically.

In short, Sunday isn’t just about closing out the preliminary round. It’s about sending a message, building momentum, and, perhaps most importantly, shaping the road to gold.