NFL Player props for Week 7 and market analysis

Against the Spread podcast host Jason Sarney is back with his Week 7 picks and player prop predictions.

Pro Football Network’s gambling group, as well as The Against the Spread podcast, look for continued sports betting profitability with their NFL Week 7 picks. With six weeks of data and trends becoming more noticeable, now is the time to put the pedal to the metal and turn early gains into substantial profit. With a focus on NFL player props, we will do our best to turn out another week of profit.

Things started swimmingly on Thursday Night Football with our official NFL Week 7 picks thanks to Tyreek Hill hitting his 73.5 receiving yard mark. It took Matt Moore and a half-yard cover, but a win is a win.

Here are the fearless-four remaining NFL Week 7 picks. 

Against The Spread Player Prop of the Week

Leonard Fournette to cash-in during the cat-fight

The ATS Player-Prop-of-the-Week has had a 4-1 seasonal success rate. Adrian Peterson was the latest to cover the weekly double-down, and when analyzing which of the NFL Week 7 picks could be the lowest hanging fruit, let us refer to the math.

The Cincinnati Bengals are the league’s worst run defense in nearly every measure that matters. The most yards allowed overall, the most rushing yards allowed per carry, and the most rushing scores against are all marks they own.

That is a triple dunce-cap instead of a crown, and the rushing king of the week could be the Jacksonville Jaguar’s running back.

Leonard Fournette is having an excellent third season in the league, and his last few contests have been inspiring for his owners and stockholders. He is averaging 5.1 yards per carries, two-tenths of a yard less than what the Bengals as a team yield per attempt.

His 584 yards through six games nets him an average of 97.3 yards a game. Sure his 225 yards rushing back in Week 4 against Denver helped the average. Fournette is running hard, looks healthy, and all the stars are aligning this week for a heavy work-load and perhaps his third triple-digit rush total of the year.

OVER 90.5 rushing yards (-112): Leonard Fournette (2 units)

Gore to gut the Fins

Of all the NFL Week 7 picks for anytime touchdown scorers with palatable odds, look at Old Faithful Frank Gore. The ageless running back is in his 15th season. Gore is on his 4th team in Buffalo and faces his most recent ex in the winless Miami Dolphins.

The Bills want a win at home against the Dolphins more than most things in life, and they want to embarrass them in the process.

In 2018’s season finale, the Bills beat Miami and sent veteran defensive tackle Kyle Williams into retirement with a reception.

A reception.

Having said that, Frank Gore rushed the ball 156 times last season for the Dolphins. He scored as many rushing touchdowns last season as the author of this article. He did get a receiving score in 2019, but look for Gore to better his Dolphins rushing total mark from last season in the first quarter against them on Sunday.

The odds of his scoring the game’s first touchdown is a whopping +550. Although I am not saying throw the unit down on that specific play (wink-wink), it is extremely likely he finds paydirt against the hated Fins.

Buffalo loves nothing more than Miami misery with a side of wings.

ANYTIME SCORER (+110): Frank Gore (1 unit)

Goff to go off in Atlanta

Jared Goff and the Rams travel across the country to face the disappointing Atlanta Falcons in what could be a major shootout. The Falcons pass defense is putrid at best and has given up 271.1 passing yards per game and 15 passing touchdowns.

Quarterbacks are completing 71.4 percent of their passes against them, so the resistance is limited for any quarterback with decent weapons.

That brings in Goff, who has a plethora of wideouts at his disposal to rack up yards and contend for Week 7 QB1 honors. Granted, he is coming off of a horrible outing against the Niners last week, but there is no better remedy than the Falcons secondary.

Goff is a 300 yard and three score contender this week and could be a daily fantasy cash-cow. For a guy with a 517-yard performance back in Week 4 and a 395 follow up a week later, Week 7 can see a total somewhere in the middle of those two numbers.

OVER 291.5 passing yards (-112): Jared Goff (1 unit)

Coleman to carry his crew in the Capital

For all the fantasy players out there, at the time of reading this article, a buy-low candidate is about to spike to a full-fledge bull market soon.

The Niners’ Tevin Coleman suffered an early-season ankle injury but has looked great in his two weeks back. He has company in the backfield, but with a Washington Redskins defense that gives up 134.0 yards rushing a game, look for numerous Niners to find success on the ground.

Coleman’s over/under mark is very low for such a soft matchup, especially for a guy with an upward trend after a tough break Week 1. In his last two games against the Browns and Rams, he totaled 97 and 45 rushing yards, respectively.

This is one of those marks that could be hit on a single series, or even better, a single run with the way Kyle Shanahan schemes his rushing attack.

OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-108): Tevin Coleman (1 unit)

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