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    NFL Week 4 Predictions: Picks Against the Spread, Betting Lines, and Odds Shifts

    How have the NFL Week 4 betting lines moved since Sunday night? We take a look and give out some NFL Week 4 predictions, picks against the spread, and more.

    The NFL Week 4 betting lines include the biggest favorite of the season going against an undefeated team against the spread, a 3-0 team that just scored 70 points last week getting three points, and the team that surrendered those 70 points being a road favorite.

    After the betting lines came out last Sunday night, how have they shifted, and what kind of impact have injuries to players like Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo had on the point spread? Let’s take a look at the odds movement and my NFL Week 4 predictions and picks against the spread.

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    NFL Week 4 Betting Lines

    All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

    Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Jaguars -3
      Current: Jaguars -3
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Falcons +134, Jaguars -158
      Current: Falcons +136, Jaguars -162
    • Total
      Opening: 43.5
      Current: 43.5

    The betting lines for this one have remained almost exactly the same. I’m banking on this being a get-right spot for the Jaguars “at home” in London after losing two games in a row. They have had two unlucky games in a row, and I expect some positive regression with their red zone offense.

    The Falcons’ first two wins to start the season are looking less impressive now, considering how bad the Panthers have looked and that the Packers may not be as far along as we expected. Although the Falcons have a very good run game, if there’s any strength for this Jags defense, it’s stopping the run, as Jacksonville ranks second in success rate this season.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Jaguars -3 (-110 at FanDuel)

    Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Bills -2.5
      Current: Bills -3
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Dolphins +120, Bills -142
      Current: Dolphins +124, Bills -146
    • Total
      Opening: 53.5
      Current: 53.5

    Interestingly, the spread has only gone up in the Bills’ direction despite the Dolphins coming off a 70-point performance last week. You would figure the Dolphins would be a public team, but there must be sharp money coming in on the short home favorite in Buffalo.

    If there was a week to fade the Dolphins, it would be on the road against a division rival after winning by 50 points the game prior. But I can’t stomach doing that after I lost on the Broncos last week (gross).

    If you like the Dolphins, I would recommend just playing their moneyline, and if you like the Bills, I would shop for an alternate line because when they win, it’s typically not a close game. I’m going to pass on this game for now.

    Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Steelers -3.5
      Current: Steelers -3
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Steelers -170, Texans +142
      Current: Steelers -148, Texans +126
    • Total
      Opening: 41
      Current: 41.5

    Both of these teams are coming off big wins, but the line has been trending in the Texans’ direction largely due to the impressive play of rookie QB C.J. Stroud.

    The Texans getting points at home looked far more appealing when the spread was at 3.5, but without the hook and with multiple injuries on a Houston offensive line that’s going against a Steelers pass rush led by T.J. Watt, I’m certainly less interested.

    Despite their win last week, the Steelers’ offense continues to struggle, ranking 29th in success rate. Of their six touchdowns so far, only two weren’t from their defense or on a passing play of at least 60 yards.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 42.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

    Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Rams -1.5
      Current: Colts -1.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Rams -112, Colts -104
      Current: Rams -110, Colts -108
    • Total
      Opening: 45.5
      Current: 45.5

    The oddsmakers have no idea what to do with this game. The Colts are favored at FanDuel, but the Rams are the favorites at DraftKings.

    The Rams lost their starting left tackle in last week’s loss to the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Colts had an impressive road win in Baltimore. Even on a short week, I like the Rams in this one.

    Matthew Stafford has reminded us this season that he is still one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, while I think Anthony Richardson being back is a downgrade for the Colts from Gardner Minshew.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Rams +1.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

    Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Vikings -3
      Current: Vikings -4
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Vikings -146, Panthers +124
      Current: Vikings -198, Panthers +166
    • Total
      Opening: 44
      Current: 46.5

    Vegas must think that Andy Dalton is a better quarterback than Bryce Young right now, as the spread has gone up since it was reported that the No. 1 overall pick should be returning this week.

    I took the Panthers’ team total over last week against Seattle (16.5), and that hit with ease. This week, I’m leaning towards doing the opposite with Young back in the lineup. Even though the Vikings’ defense is far from impressive, they’re certainly much more trustworthy than this Panthers offense.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Panthers team total under 21.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Saints -3
      Current: Saints -3.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Buccaneers +138, Saints -164
      Current: Buccaneers +158, Saints -188
    • Total
      Opening: 40.5
      Current: 39.5

    Did the Buccaneers trick us into thinking they were a good team after two weeks, or are the Eagles just that good? Only time will tell, but it’s hard to back the Saints giving points with the hook against a division rival with Jameis Winston at quarterback.

    I would consider the under if not for two turnover-prone quarterbacks who are each capable of giving the ball away deep in their own territory.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Buccaneers +3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

    Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Eagles -7
      Current: Eagles -8.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Commanders +275, Eagles -340
      Current: Commanders +330, Eagles -420
    • Total
      Opening: 44.5
      Current: 43.5

    Sam Howell against this Eagles defensive line is going to be quite a mismatch. Howell has been (by far) the most sacked quarterback so far this season, as his pocket presence just isn’t there yet. Now, he will be going up against a defensive front sporting Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Fletcher Cox, Josh Sweat, Haason Reddick, and Brandon Graham. Good luck.

    The Eagles’ passing offense is slowly getting back on track, but their running game looks unstoppable and is matchup-proof. The value is certainly gone after the spread went up 1.5 points since Philly’s MNF win and looks more appealing as a teaser leg at this rate.

    The Commanders’ team total is 16.5 at most sportsbooks, but BetMGM has it at 17.5. There’s juice on the under, but that’s my favorite play for this game.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Commanders team total under 17.5 points (-145 at BetMGM)

    Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Broncos -3
      Current: Broncos -3.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Broncos -144, Bears +122
      Current: Broncos -166, Bears +140
    • Total
      Opening: 45.5
      Current: 46

    Calling this game The Toilet Bowl would be an insult to toilets. These two teams lost by a combined 81 points last week and are two of the four winless teams remaining.

    It’s hard to trust either squad in this one. The Bears are so bad that they’re 3.5-point home underdogs to a team that just gave up 70 points last week. Neither defense can stop a nosebleed, so if I wanted to bet this game (I don’t), I would lean towards the over.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean over 46 (-110 at FanDuel)

    Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Browns -1.5
      Current: Browns -1.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Ravens -102, Browns -116
      Current: Ravens +126, Browns -148
    • Total
      Opening: 42.5
      Current: 40.5

    The Dolphins have received plenty of warranted praise for their historically elite offense through three weeks, but the Browns’ defense has been just as impressive. They have only given up 21 first downs through three weeks — to put that in perspective, the next-best team has 41 first downs. The only offensive touchdown they have allowed was a 71-yard pass play by the Steelers.

    The Ravens might be getting offensive linemen Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum back this week, which would be a huge boost against this Browns pass rush.

    As an underdog, Lamar Jackson is 9-4 outright, the best record by any QB with at least 10 starts, per ESPN Stats and Info. I would have liked this under better at 41 or 41.5, but I like it enough at 40.5.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 40.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

    Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Titans -1.5
      Current: Bengals -2.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Bengals +110, Titans -130
      Current: Bengals -146, Titans +124
    • Total
      Opening: 41.5
      Current: 41

    This line must have flipped because the original expectation was that Joe Burrow could be sidelined for this one, but after he suited up on Monday night, there has been no indication that he won’t be playing.

    Although they looked better last week, Burrow and this Bengals passing offense still don’t seem right, to say the least. They get a more favorable matchup, however, against a Titans pass defense that is 30th in dropback success rate and just allowed Deshaun Watson to have his best game as a Browns quarterback.

    This might not be the Browns’ defense, but the Bengals’ unit is very good in its own right and should put pressure on Ryan Tannehill and a Titans offensive line that has struggled mightily so far. I don’t trust either team to put up enough points here.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Under 41 (-110 at FanDuel)

    Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Chargers -4.5
      Current: Chargers -5.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Raiders +170, Chargers -205
      Current: Raiders +194, Chargers -235
    • Total
      Opening: 50.5
      Current: 49.5

    Jimmy Garoppolo is in concussion protocol, so it’s safe to assume that he won’t be playing on Sunday, and the line has gone up one point as a result.

    The Chargers lost Mike Williams to a season-ending injury, but starting quarterbacks will almost always have a bigger impact on the spread than non-elite skill-position players.

    These are two untrustworthy teams. While this will be a home game on the road for the Raiders in Los Angeles, Justin Herbert should have a big day against the Las Vegas defense.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Lean Chargers -5.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

    New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Cowboys -6.5
      Current: Cowboys -6.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Patriots +250, Cowboys -310
      Current: Patriots +215, Cowboys -260
    • Total
      Opening: 42
      Current: 43.5

    One excuse for the Dallas Cowboys in their embarrassing loss last week to the Arizona Cardinals was that they were missing three starting offensive linemen. Against a much better pass rush in the New England Patriots, two of those OL should be returning this week, as Zack Martin and Tyler Biadasz were limited participants in practice on Thursday.

    The Cowboys were 1-5 in scoring touchdowns in the red zone last week, including one horrible interception from Dak Prescott. I don’t want to sleep on this Patriots’ defense, but I think they see some positive regression in converting touchdowns this week.

    Mac Jones and his lack of playmakers against this Cowboys defense is a big enough mismatch to give me confidence in a bounce-back spot for Dallas at home.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Cowboys -6.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

    Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers

    • Spread
      Opening: 49ers -14
      Current: 49ers -14
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Cardinals +610, 49ers -900
      Current: Cardinals +640, 49ers -950
    • Total
      Opening: 42
      Current: 44.5

    The Cardinals have been far more competitive than anyone could have expected through three weeks so far this season. They’re 1-2 overall, 3-0 ATS, and have led at halftime in each of their three games so far this season. Playing the 49ers on the road, who had an extra long week, however, will be their biggest test to date.

    Despite Arizona’s upset over the Cowboys, the oddsmakers haven’t adjusted the betting lines at all for this one. That’s less of an indictment on the Cardinals and more so respect for how impressive the 49ers have been so far.

    If I had a lean here, I would go with the Cardinals covering their fourth consecutive first half.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Cardinals 1H +7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

    Kansas City Chiefs vs. New York Jets Odds

    • Spread
      Opening: Chiefs -8.5
      Current: Chiefs -9.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Chiefs -450, Jets +350
      Current: Chiefs -405, Jets +320
    • Total
      Opening: 43.5
      Current: 41.5

    The smart play here would be to back the Jets as big home underdogs after the line has gone up a point, but I can’t stomach it. It seems like Zach Wilson is getting worse at this rate, and even getting 9.5 points isn’t enough for me to back him and the Jets.

    Wilson playing so poorly isn’t a surprise to anyone besides Robert Saleh and the people who bought into the idea that Wilson was a new quarterback (really?), but the Jets’ defense has been shockingly disappointing so far this season. Despite creating expectations of being an elite defense this season, the unit is just 20th in success rate so far.

    The Jets have averaged just 8.6 PPG in their last five starts with Wilson at quarterback, and their team total is currently listed at 15.5.

    NFL Pick and Prediction: Jets team total under 15.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

    Seattle Seahawks vs. New York Giants

    • Spread
      Opening: Seahawks -1.5
      Current: Seahawks -1.5
    • Moneyline
      Opening: Seahawks -120, Giants +102
      Current: Seahawks -126, Giants +108
    • Total
      Opening: 45
      Current: 47.5

    This is another game that oddsmakers have struggled with, as the favorite has flipped throughout the week. The total for this one has gone up 2.5 points, as the Seahawks have scored 37 points two weeks in a row. The Giants, on the other hand, will have 10 days to prepare and get back on track offensively.

    MORE: NFL Week 4 Odds and Betting Trends Against the Spread for Every Game

    New York might be getting back both Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley for this one, which would be a huge boost for their offense. There isn’t enough value on the Giants at the moment to make a pick before finding out if they’ll be healthier for this week, and the adjustment wouldn’t be enough to scare me off from backing them. I’m going to pass for now.

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