Last week was by far the worst weekend of the year for Pro Football Network’s Expert Handicapper Chris Smith. There is simply no way around it. After being up between four to six units for the majority of the season, Chris suddenly finds himself down five units entering Week 14. After some self-reflection, Chris noticed that he was actually on the correct side of 7 of the 12 games he placed a side or total wager on this past week.
The problem is that he had Philly and Dallas tied into far too many teasers and live plays. Lesson learnt, he will be taking fewer teasers over the course of the final few regular-season weeks and trusting his initial instincts a tad more. Chris has two sides and a team TD total as he looks to crawl back towards .500 on Sunday. As always, follow Chris’ live plays on the All-Access twitter page. Also, be on the lookout for this week’s “Sundays are for the Dawgs” combo play with PFN Volatility Expert James Aguirre. Now, onto the NFL Week 14 Picks!
Ravens -6 (-105) risk $35 to win $33.33
Thanksgiving Day 2019 was the first time I faded the Buffalo Bills in a big spot this year and it backfired on me. For our Week 14 NFL picks, we go right back to it as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens invade Orchard Park. The Ravens are an absolute juggernaut running the football and that plays right into the biggest weakness in the Buffalo defense. The Bills rank towards the bottom of the league in every metric that measures run defense. That’s against one of the easiest schedules in the entire league. Dallas was running with great success against Baltimore on Thanksgiving before completely abandoning Ezekiel Elliot when they fell behind in the second quarter.
A false narrative you might hear from Buffalo backers this week is that the Bills are better equipped than anyone to prepare for the Ravens. This due to the fact that Josh Allen has a similar skill set to Lamar Jackson. The problem with this logic is that Baltimore runs all sorts of complex planned RPO plays for Jackson to run out of the backfield. Whereas, a large chunk or Josh Allen runs come from broken down pass plays.
Huge swaths of public bettors appear to be convinced Buffalo can keep this one close based on their performance in Dallas on Turkey-Day. There is also a belief that this could be a potential let down spot for Baltimore. I’m not buying that narrative. The Ravens are playing for home field in the AFC and have been road warriors against the spread this season. The Bills, meanwhile, are 2-6 their last eight games as a home underdog which tells me they don’t do as well there is a step up in talent like this weekend against the Ravens.
Rams PK (-110) risk $27.50 to win $25
It’s official, the Seattle Seahawks are the luckiest team in the history of the modern NFL. Nobody knows this better than the Los Angles Rams, who witnessed this first hand back in October when Greg Zuerlein shanked what’s normally a chip shot. The Seahawks escaped with one of their astonishing nine overall one-score victories. Forget the Most Valuable Player, Russell Wilson is a magician. I’m not convinced he’s an actual human after hearing him attempt to converse with teammates while mic’d up on Monday Night Football.
That said, regression comes for everyone, much like Father Time. Except Tom Brady and the Patriots, I guess. After opening as three-point road favorites, the Seahawks are now one point underdogs in most spots. Sharp money is all over the Rams in this one and so am I.
Jared Goff has had a roller-coaster season, looking like a dead man walking just three weeks ago. However, he looked much more like the Super Bowl QB from last season against Arizona. He carved up the Seahawks defense the last time they faced off. Some of that has to be attributed to the return of Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods into the lineup.
I expect a decent amount of points scored for both teams in this one, and I specifically like Todd Gurley to score multiple TDs (+550 on FanDuel) as a bonus player prop. Despite getting obliterated on national television against the Ravens two weeks ago, the Rams have quietly won four of their last six overall and they’ve had the Seahawks number at home the past few seasons.
Chiefs Over 2.5 TDs (-109) $30 to win $27.50
All eyes will be on this AFC Championship rematch late Sunday afternoon from Foxboro. The New England Patriots are three-point home favorites, which indicates Vegas thinks the two teams are essentially dead even on a neutral field. The Patriots defense has been historically good this year. However, their schedule has certainly played a role in that, having played a whose who of journeyman QBs over the first half of the season. Patrick Mahomes and this Kansas City offense is a different animal.
I have zero interest in attempting to predict a winner in this game, but I have a hard time believing the Chiefs can’t score three touchdowns here. Remember, Kansas City put up 31 and 40 points the two times they faced the Patriots last season. “Showtime” Mahomes has a knack for putting up fireworks in big games, and the Chiefs might be the one team with enough speed and weapons to neutralize that elite New England secondary. Take coach Andy Reid’s team to score three or more TDs in New England this weekend and have fun rooting against Bill Belichick and the evil Patriots.
Running List of PFN Bets for This Week
Click to view the running list of our bets for this week and the 2019 NFL Season. Be sure to bookmark that page and visit it often throughout the week to stay updated on our latest moves.
Chris Smith is Pro Football Network’s expert NFL handicapper and founder of the Free Cash Crew. You can follow him on Twitter @ChrisSmithPFN.